Trump has big plans for Pakistani oil. That's news to Pakistanis.

Washington Post

09-08-2025

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — When President Donald Trump announced a deal last week to exploit Pakistan's 'massive' oil reserves, Pakistanis were puzzled.
Governments here have dreamed for decades of finding and extracting enough oil to turn around the country's economic fortunes, but none of their attempts have succeeded. Petroleum is Pakistan's largest import; around 80 percent of the country's supply comes from abroad. When it runs low, power outages proliferate.
Still, Trump struck a notably optimistic note in his Truth Social post, announcing that 'Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves.'
'Who knows,' he mused, 'maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!'
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that Pakistan might hold 9.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil — a figure cited frequently by Pakistani officials to court foreign investors. But these reserves have not been proved, cautioned Afia Malik, an energy researcher here. Pakistan's proven reserves are far smaller — they place it around 50th globally, behind such countries as Romania, Vietnam and Brunei.
Pakistan produced fewer than 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2023, according to the EIA, far less than the world's top producers. (The United States, with around 13 million barrels per day, ranked first.)
After a long history of setbacks and failures, few here believe Pakistan will ever become an oil exporter.
'Red tape, political interference, and bureaucratic inefficiencies' have deterred foreign investors and limited progress, Malik said.
Trump suggested that new investment would come from private U.S. sources. 'We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership,' he wrote.
The most ambitious attempt ended in 2019, when a consortium that included ExxonMobil searched off Karachi but found no oil or gas deposits.
A Pakistani refiner said last week that it had struck an agreement for its first import of U.S. crude oil.
'As the President said, Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves, which will strengthen economic security for both of our countries,' White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said.
Pakistani officials have welcomed Trump's announcement to resume the search for oil.
'If there's investment coming in from countries like the U.S., China, others, we would like to welcome that,' Power Minister Awais Leghari told The Washington Post. 'It is good to see that on the radar of President Trump.'
But among commentators here, disbelief and in some cases mockery have prevailed. Some suspect Trump is sending a message to neighboring India, Pakistan's more populous and more economically influential archrival.
'Pakistan may simply be a leverage point, rather than the main beneficiary of this engagement,' political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said.
Relations between the Trump administration and the Indian government have faltered in recent months over trade. Trump on Wednesday said he will double the tariff on goods from India to 50 percent because of the country's continued purchase of Russian oil.
While some here doubt that Pakistan is a priority to Trump, officials say they have noticed an improvement in relations with Washington. When days of border fighting between India and Pakistan in May threatened to escalate to all-out war, the administration brokered a ceasefire. Trump hosted powerful army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House, and Islamabad said it would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The renewed American interest in Pakistan, some analysts suspect, might be less about oil than access to minerals and rare earths.
Pakistan is believed to hold large and unexplored deposits of the rare earths that are crucial for consumer electronics and defense technology. Amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, a key rare earth supplier, the Trump administration has shown growing interest in Pakistan's mines. U.S. officials attended the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum here in April.
But as with oil, most of Pakistan's mineral deposits are unexplored and could be difficult to exploit.
China is building a nearly 2,000-mile road, rail and pipeline network to link the Chinese border in northern Pakistan, resource-rich western Pakistani provinces and a deep-sea port in the south, but the work has been hampered by growing insecurity. Islamabad is concerned about the rising militancy of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Separatist groups in the southwestern province of Baluchistan, meanwhile, are escalating their fight against the government.
Baluch separatists claimed responsibility this week for an attack on two mining trucks in the province. The militants warned that anyone 'involved in the looting of Baloch national resources' or transporting minerals would be considered a legitimate target.
Some former Pakistani officials worry that the rising security challenges are fueled by a sense of disenfranchisement shared not only by radicalized militants but also ordinary people.
When oil or minerals were extracted in the past, locals rarely reaped the rewards.
'Serious efforts were never made to engage them as mutual partners,' said G.A. Sabri, a former top official in the Petroleum Ministry.
Sabri hopes Pakistani officials have learned their lesson. But as the government seeks foreign investment, it has introduced legislation to expand its control over mineral extraction, giving more cause for local grievances.
'When local communities see tangible benefits from exploration,' said Malik, the energy researcher, 'they are more likely to take ownership of its security and success.'
Haq Nawaz Khan contributed to this report.