How to watch Marquette vs. New Mexico: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup

New York Times

21-03-2025

Coach Shaka Smart has built Marquette into a consistent NCAA Tournament team. The Golden Eagles have made the tournament in each of Smart's three seasons. Second-team All-American guard Kam Jones is the player to watch for Marquette. Meanwhile, the Mountain West regular season champions are propelled by their leading scorer, Donovon Dent. Jones and Dent are electric, so look for both players to put on a show.
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New Mexico fell in the tournament's first round last year, but Marquette comes into this game not playing their best basketball. Can the Lobos pull the upset?
We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice.
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Strengths: No team in college basketball maximizes possessions like Marquette. The Golden Eagles are top 15 in the country in offensive turnover rate and defensive turnover rate. The only other team that can make that claim since 2017 is last year's Houston squad, which was on track to make the Final Four before Jamal Shead's injury. The catalyst for Marquette is its defensive ball pressure. Stevie Mitchell is an elite on-ball defender, and so is Chase Ross. Shaka Smart isn't exactly reigniting the 'Havoc' defensive system from his VCU days, but he is not afraid to lean into the pressure his guards can provide on opposing backcourts.
Weaknesses: The Golden Eagles struggle with rim protection. Ben Gold has not taken the leap many expected, and the young bigs are … well, they're young. One of the downsides of a defense that gambles for turnovers is the lane is left open — opponents shoot 52 percent on 2-pointers. The other notable issue for the Golden Eagles is they don't shoot 3-pointers as well as it's needed. Marquette has hovered right around 32 percent from beyond the arc all season. The offense is predicated on creating space for Kam Jones to operate, and if shooters aren't making shots, the space isn't there.
Outlook: Jones was the best player in college basketball in November. He was playing like a First-Team All-American through January, but he has come back to earth a bit in conference play. Part of that is due to league foes knowing the scouting report on him better than anyone, but that would matter less if the senior guard's supporting cast was playing at a higher level. Jones is capable of putting this team on his back and carrying them to the second weekend, if not deeper. But for that to happen, David Joplin and Chase Ross must play well. If they don't, Marquette is a team that could get picked off in the first round.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Younger Pitino has followed in his legendary father's footsteps, instituting sound defensive principles that have guided his team to the Dance. The Mountain West regular season champions create chaos. They're top five in adjusted tempo nationally, and their frenetic pace and relentless on-ball pressure twist teams into a pretzel. Pre-tourney, they forced a turnover on 20.4 percent of opponent possessions. Strong around the rim — grabbing rebounds, scoring and altering shots — New Mexico packs the paint with considerable zeal. With an intimidating frontline of Nelly Junior Joseph, Mustapha Amzil and Filip Borovicanin, the Lobos won't be pushed around inside.
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Weaknesses: Offensively, the Albuquerque reps didn't play at peak elevation in the regular season. In the 30 days leading up to the postseason, they ranked outside the top 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency, netting a mediocre 1.095 points per possession. Though the Lobos stroke it fairly well from outside, only 25.8 percent of their points came via the 3-pointer. They also converted under 70 percent on free throws. Lacking a deep bench, it'll be important to stay out of foul trouble. Despite its lopsided overall record, New Mexico has visible flaws.
Outlook: Channeling the free spirit of Bill Walton (RIP!), New Mexico, at times, flows beautifully like the mighty waters of the Rio Grande. Their frontcourt can bang with anyone, and when the triples fall from Dent, Tru Washington and CJ Noland, they are a very tough customer — don't forget they defeated UCLA and VCU in non-conference play. Draw is everything, but the under-the-radar Lobos have the potential to lash out.
—Brad Evans
(Photo of Kam Jones: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)