NRL: Warriors teetering on brink of disaster after latest defeat

NZ Herald

3 days ago

It could have been worse. Other results spared them from dropping as low as seventh, but they remain fifth on the ladder, four points clear of ninth with four games to go.
What once looked like a straightforward run home now feels anything but.
Friday's home clash with the St George Illawarra Dragons once appeared a near-certain two points, but the visitors arrive in Auckland riding back-to-back wins over the Canberra Raiders and the Cronulla Sharks.
Plenty of factors could explain the Warriors' slide. Injuries are the obvious culprit, or maybe it's because Webster shaved his head. Maybe it's these columns. Either way, they haven't won since.
Here are five questions from the defeat.
Why did Webster tinker with his halves?
Hours before kickoff, the Warriors dropped a bombshell. Tanah Boyd, named at halfback earlier in the week, was axed to New South Wales Cup, with Te Maire Martin starting alongside Chanel Harris-Tavita.
On recent form, Martin may have earned a shot, but it proved one of Andrew Webster's poorest calls as coach: short-sighted given the wet forecast and the fact Boyd's game management was far better suited to the conditions.
The Bulldogs played textbook wet-weather football, kicking long and early, trapping the Warriors deep. Boyd's boot could have eased the pressure and got them out of trouble.
Martin and Harris-Tavita never clicked and the partnership lasted just 23 minutes before Martin left with a head knock, ruling him out against the Dragons. From there, all the creative load fell on Harris-Tavita, who struggled under the pressure. Being the sole kicker made him an easy target for the Bulldogs' defence.
Webster has long called Martin the ideal bench utility. This week, that's exactly where he should have stayed.
No official reason was given for Boyd's demotion, though after eight missed tackles against the Dolphins, defence seemed the obvious factor.
Post-match, Webster indicated Boyd will likely return against the Dragons, and he should be burning to make a statement.
And before the hype train takes off on social media, cool the jets on Jett Cleary. After just seven reserve-grade games, he's not ready for first grade.
Te Maire Martin. Photo / Getty Images
Where are the missing leaders?
At a time when the Warriors desperately need leaders to stand up, two have gone missing.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Marata Niukore have both been well below their best, though recent positional changes may partly explain it.
Injuries have forced Andrew Webster to shift first-choice fullback Nicoll-Klokstad into the centres for the past two games. For 140 of those 160 minutes, he's been largely anonymous, finishing against the Bulldogs with just four runs. He did shift to five-eighth after Martin left the field.
While he offers more defensive stability on the edge than Kurt Capewell, it blunts his biggest weapon: churning out metres to set the tone at the start of sets.
Taine Tuaupiki has filled in admirably at fullback, but his game is built on speed and agility, not the go-forward punch Nicoll-Klokstad provides.
The bigger concern, though, is Niukore. If Nicoll-Klokstad has been anonymous, Niukore has been a ghost.
Against the Bulldogs he produced just five runs for 45m, less than half his usual workload of around 10 runs and 95m per game. He made 23 tackles but missed seven, more than double his season average, including one miss that led directly to Canterbury's opening try. No offloads, no tackle busts, no line breaks.
For one of the highest-paid back-rowers in the NRL, that's simply not good enough and with the emergence of many young, more productive second-rowers, he must get his act together in order to keep his spot in the side.
Marata Niukore. Photo / Photosport
Better off outside the top four?
Given the past few weeks, the Warriors' priority has shifted from locking down a top-four spot to simply staying inside the eight.
Fortunately, that should be achievable, and now the target should be a fifth – or sixth-place finish. Even that would have seemed unthinkable, considering how their season began.
While history says you can't win the NRL from outside the top four, this might actually be the Warriors' best shot at a run.
Under the current format (1 v 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8, 6 v 7), the top two teams go straight to the preliminary finals, while the losers get a second life at home against the winners from the elimination matches.
Here's the quirk: teams ranked 5 and 6 host a final in week one.
After running multiple scenarios through the NRL's ladder predictor, I've got the Warriors finishing sixth, hosting the Broncos in week one. Considering Brisbane's injury toll after the weekend, you'd back Webster's men to get it done.
That would set up a rematch with the Bulldogs in Sydney. The hosts would be favourites, but on a dry track with some key personnel back, it's anyone's game.
Stranger things have happened to the Warriors in finals football, so you can't rule anything out.
Chanel Harris-Tavita. Photo / Photosport
Was taking the two the wrong call?
When the Warriors opted for a penalty goal to open the scoring in the second minute, it felt like admitting defeat.
In those horrid conditions, taking the two points was the safe call, but it was also a missed opportunity to assert dominance and put the Bulldogs under early pressure.
Had they tapped and gone, they'd have had a full set in the red zone and anything could have happened.
Instead, the Bulldogs would have taken it as a small victory. From there, they earned a string of penalties, built momentum, and never let it go. Those moments proved crucial in the context of the match.
Personally, I'm not a fan of opening the scoring with a penalty goal in rugby league. From what I've seen, it rarely ends well.
There are three cases in league where a penalty goal should be an option: it's the last play to end a half, to level a match or to extend a lead to two scores.
Adam Pompey opens the scoring with a penalty goal against the Bulldogs. Photo / Photosport
Has Sam Healey played his way in?
Even with just four NRL games to his name, Sam Healey already looks every bit a long-term first-grader.
After impressing against the Dolphins last week, Healey was shifted to the bench against the Bulldogs, with Freddy Lussick handed the No 9 jersey for the first time this season.
The reasoning wasn't made public, but with Lussick's greater experience, Webster appeared to opt for the safer choice. The problem was that the Warriors' attack looked flat until Healey entered the fray.
It took 48 minutes for Healey to be unleashed, and he made an immediate impact. His sharp service from dummy half gave the Warriors much-needed direction, his darting runs kept the Bulldogs' ruck defence guessing. Within minutes, he was rewarded with the side's first try.
Healey's game isn't just about the basics. He has an instinct for spotting half-gaps and a knack for turning slow sets into quick ones. That's a quality the Warriors desperately need right now, particularly with their attack struggling to find fluency.
While Wayde Egan is a chance of returning from a shoulder injury this week, Healey should be locked into the 17 as his back-up. He offers a different dimension, the ability to create something from nothing, and in a side that's been starved of spark, that's priceless.
Ben Francis is an Auckland-based reporter for the New Zealand Herald who covers breaking sports news.