With MLB All-Star Game voting underway, which Reds have the best chances?

New York Times

14 hours ago

In each of the last two seasons, and the last five seasons with an All-Star Game, the Cincinnati Reds have had at least one first-time All-Star. Could they have another this year?
Voting for this year's All-Star Game in Atlanta opened Wednesday, and while it'd be no surprise if shortstop Elly De La Cruz and right-hander Hunter Greene were selected for the second year in a row, there could be a newcomer or two from the Reds in July.
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The All-Star selection process is complicated and doesn't always produce a team of the game's very best. Starting position players are voted on by the fans, which means the players that most people want to see will be there. But it also means the process could be more of a popularity contest than a merit-based award.
The rest of the roster, including all the pitchers, is decided by voting from players and selections made by the commissioner's office, with the caveat that every team is represented.
So, which Reds players deserve a call so far this season? Let's look not just at their cases, but also their competition. The first round of voting goes until June 26, when a pair of finalists at each infield position and six outfielders are identified for a new round of voting, concluding July 2, when the rest of the rosters will be announced. With nearly a month remaining, there's plenty of time for Reds to bolster or destroy their case.
De La Cruz is certainly popular enough to win a starting spot via fan balloting. This is anecdotal and not scientific, but I was chatting with my cousin in Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and her son is a De La Cruz fanatic. De La Cruz is his favorite player, and all he wanted for his birthday was a De La Cruz baseball card. My family has no ties to the Reds or Ohio. My extended family is comprised predominantly of Cardinals fans with a strong contingent of Royals fans, as well. My cousin's son has lived his whole life in Des Moines, Iowa, which is home to the Cubs' Triple-A team, making it a Chicago stronghold. That's deep in enemy territory, and De La Cruz is still his favorite player. That's the hold of Elly De La Cruz.
Entering Thursday, De La Cruz led all qualified NL shortstops in games (63), runs (47), RBIs (43) and stolen bases (19), and his 12 home runs were second to the 14 for the New York Mets' Francisco Lindor. De La Cruz was fifth in fWAR (1.6), more than a win away from Lindor, who led the NL with a 2.7 fWAR and was followed by the Diamondbacks' Geraldo Perdomo (2.5), the Phillies' Trea Turner (2.2) and the Cardinals' Masyn Winn (2.0).
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In competition for fan voting, there's Lindor and the Los Angeles Dodgers' Mookie Betts. Those are tall tasks for anyone to beat in a popularity contest, especially a player from one of the league's smallest markets, but if there's one thing De La Cruz has shown he can do, it's make the impossible look possible.
Greene was placed on the injured list Wednesday, the second time he's been on the IL with a groin injury. MRI results showed no new injuries, but he may not return as quickly as last time. While Greene's been spectacular this season, he may not be back in time, and if he is, the team may prefer he not pitch in a game that doesn't count after two trips to the IL already.
Entering Thursday, Greene's 59 2/3 innings weren't enough to qualify for statistical titles, but he's 4-3 with a 2.72 ERA with a 30.8 percent strikeout rate, the fourth-best mark among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. He also has a lower walk rate than the three pitchers ahead of him and a WHIP of 0.97.
Among starters in the NL, Greene's 1.5 fWAR is 13th, but it's also second on the team.
And that's where we start with the first-timers.
If this surprises you, you're probably not alone. Martinez is 3-6 with a 3.89 ERA, but he has a 1.5 fWAR (FanGraphs doesn't show beyond tenths in its WAR, essentially tying him with Greene, but it ranks them accordingly). While Martinez has a relatively low strikeout rate (16.8 percent), he also has a low walk rate (5.4 percent).
While the All-Star Game is an exhibition and treated rightfully so, Martinez would be a perfect pick for the team if a roster were built to win. Martinez has the ability and willingness to pitch out of the bullpen in addition to starting, so he knows how to get ready in a hurry.
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FanGraphs has Lodolo and Andrew Abbott with a 1.3 fWAR, with Lodolo slightly ahead.
Lodolo is 4-4 with a 3.10 ERA, and his 42.2 percent ground-ball rate is the best among full-time Reds starters (it's just lower than Brent Suter, who has been an opener twice). Lodolo's 20.7 percent strikeout rate is higher than Martinez's, and his 4.8 percent walk rate is lower (although that fails to show the entire picture because he leads baseball with eight hit batters).
Abbott gave up more than twice as many earned runs in his start Wednesday (five) than in all six of his June starts combined (two). Even after his first loss of the season dropped him to 5-1, Abbott's ERA stands at 2.18.
One thing to note — and this should change if he stays healthy — is he doesn't have enough innings to qualify for an ERA title, having started the season on the IL.
Abbott's been fantastic since coming back, and if he continues to pitch like he has, his stock should rise.
Friedl deserves an All-Star spot, not just because of his amazing catch to win Tuesday's game against the Brewers, but because he's been perhaps the team's most valuable position player.
TJ FRIEDL ROBS A GAME-TYING HOMER TO END THE GAME 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Svmwf17yr7
— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2025
Friedl is eighth in fWAR (1.7) among qualified NL outfielders. He leads that group in batting average (.300) and his on-base percentage (.383) is second to the Chicago Cubs' Kyle Tucker (.399). Though his bunting gets more acclaim than his power, Friedl's .419 slugging percentage is better than the Phillies' Nick Castellanos (.414) or the Mets' Brandon Nimmo (.412).
Defensive metrics don't love Friedl, but he is hampered by the ballpark, which doesn't offer much opportunity to show the range that is valued.
He may have the longest shot of any of the players mentioned, even if he may be the most deserving.
(Top photo of Elly De La Cruz: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)