Gilbert Gardiner's speed map and tips for The Valley on Saturday
That we know. So who benefits?
Tempo and track conditions play a major role in race day patterns, with the tired surface long overdue its major redevelopment, set to start after the Cox Plate this year.
The Valley roar is back on Saturday for a nine-race card, including the Travis Harrison Cup, the sixth-last meeting on the traditionally perfectly imperfect tight speed circuit.
A three-month racing hiatus and thankfully kind weather this week has aided Valley track preparations.
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New track manager Shaun Patterson has a genuine Soft 5 pegged for Saturday with cool and overcast conditions.
'The school side (before home bend) probably a little bit softer but as we track throughout the day it's coming in line with the rest of the track,' Patterson said.
'The straight is nice and consistent. Once they get around the bend they'll have all the open ground to find the best run.
'Obviously on the day they'll probably start up against the fence and I think they'll want to lead and see where they go from there but I think there's every opportunity throughout the day to peel off the fence and come around.'
Herald Sun racing writer Gilbert Gardiner ran a rule on the meeting to identify horses potentially able to capitalise on Saturday at The Valley.
RACE 1
Hovland and Catani Gardens around the mark behind Navy King. Hard to make ground with not a lot of tempo. Gilbert's tip: Hovland ($3.50) win
RACE 2
I Am The Empire has every chance to dictate from barrier one. Flamin' Romans, if able to cross from wide draw, a threat. Tip: Flamin' Romans ($13/$3.80) each-way
RACE 3
Pressure on from the outset with leaders drawn in and out. Could Thailess stalk and get the drop on them, with fresh legs? Tip: Thailess ($7.50/$2.50) each-way
RACE 4
Midwest has speed and fitness to run amok. Wary of classy Mornington Glory and Oak Hill, but bigger targets on horizon for them. Tip: Midwest ($4.80) win
RACE 5
Dreamzel and Martial Music to get cushy runs behind Boonie. Harry Got Styles a chance with a clean start. Tip: Harry Got Styles ($7.50) each way
RACE 6
Esha and Samudra to set a quick tempo. Esha has the benefit of two trials. Oyster Lane the danger, camped just off the speed. Tip: Oyster Lane ($4.20) win
RACE 7
Nellie Leylax wants to roll along at even fractions. Sayedaty Sadaty has the class and speed in legs to get over the top late. Tip: Sayedaty Sadaty ($2.90) win
RACE 8
Private Jumbo and Reset The Jazz could run the race to suit. Princeofnottingham loves the track. Tip: Princeofnottingham ($14/$3.90) each-way
RACE 9
Red Hot Nicc among a number of speed influences. Apache Song right up there too. Tip: Apache Song ($14/$4) each-way
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
NEED FOR SPEED
Race Distance Likely leader (number) Likely tempo
1 2040m Navy King (6) Touch slower than average
2 2500m I Am The Empire (3) Even speed
3 1200m Tango Jewel (7) Fast
4 1000m Midwest (2) Fast
5 1000m Boonie (8) Even speed
6 1000m Samudra (9)/Esha (11) Fast
7 2040m Nellie Leylax (9) Even speed
8 1600m Private Jumbo (10) Slower than average
9 1200m Red Hot Nicc (5) Quicker than average
Gilbert Gardiner
Sports reporter
Gilbert Gardiner is a sports reporter for the Herald Sun and Sunday Herald Sun.
@gilbertgardiner
Gilbert Gardiner
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