Will '28 Years Later' take a bite out of ‘Elio'? Will ‘Dragon' continue to soar? Here's our box-office prediction
Despite two high-profile film releases this weekend, How to Train Your Dragon won't be slayed at the box office.
Universal's live-action adventure will remain on top of the June 20-22 box office, adding over $40 million to its $113 million domestic gross so far. How to Train Your Dragon has earned $227 million worldwide since it debuted last week.
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Sony's highly anticipated 28 Years Later, directed by Oscar winner Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), and Disney/Pixar's Elio will face off in a close battle for second place — both are projected to earn around $30 million.
28 Years Later will easily become the franchise's biggest debut, surpassing 2002's 28 Days Later ($10 million) and 2007's 28 Weeks Later ($9.8 million). Beyond its promising start, it won't take much for 28 Years Later to become the highest-grossing installment in the trilogy, a title currently held by 28 Days Later, which earned $75 million worldwide. With strong anticipation and a legacy behind it, the film is set to breathe new life into the acclaimed zombie franchise.
Set nearly three decades after the contagious rage virus devastated the world, 28 Years Later follows a group of isolated survivors who journey to the mainland, only to discover that a dangerous mutation threatens to decimate the remaining population. This latest installment will launch a new trilogy from director Danny Boyle and writer Alex Garland. The film was shot back-to-back with its sequel, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, slated for release in 2026. Meanwhile, a third entry — and the fifth installment in the franchise — is already in development, ensuring that the iconic series continues to expand its terrifying legacy.
Directed by Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian, and Domee Shi, Elio tells the story of an 11-year-old who unexpectedly forms a unique bond with eccentric aliens after being mistakenly identified as Earth's official intergalactic ambassador. With a production budget of $150 million, the stakes are high for Pixar, which has faced challenges in recent years. Three of its recent original movies — Turning Red, Luca, and the Oscar-winning Soul — were released directly to Disney+ instead of full theatrical runs, raising questions about the studio's box office strategy and its ability to deliver theatrical hits in a competitive marketplace.
Last year, Inside Out 2 delivered a record-breaking $1.69 billion worldwide for Pixar, reaffirming the studio's success with sequels, which have consistently proven to be more profitable than original concepts. Early projections suggest Elio could earn the unfortunate distinction of being the studio's worst theatrical debut ever — a title currently held by 2023's Elemental, which opened to a modest $29.6 million in North America. All eyes will be on the weekend numbers to see if Pixar can defy predictions and turn things around.
Also debuting this weekend is Magenta Light Studios' Bride Wars, a universally panned action-comedy starring Rebel Wilson as a secret agent who will stop at nothing to save her best friend's wedding.
Gold Derby readers predict that How to Train Your Dragon will win the June 20-22 weekend with between $25 million and $50 million domestically. 28 Years Later is the runner-up selection of our oddsmakers.
NEW RELEASES
Director: Danny Boyle Distributor: Sony Pictures A group of survivors of the rage virus live on a small island. When one of the group leaves the island on a mission into the mainland, he discovers secrets, wonders, and horrors that have mutated not only the infected but other survivors. The horror sequel, starring Alfie Williams, Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Ralph Fiennes, has a running time of one hour, 55 minutes, and is rated R. 28 Years Later is certified "fresh" with a 92 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; "generally favorbale" reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 76 percent.
Director: Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian, and Domee Shi Distributor: Walt Disney Studios Elio, a space fanatic with an active imagination, finds himself on a cosmic misadventure where he must form new bonds with alien lifeforms, navigate a crisis of intergalactic proportions and somehow discover who he is truly meant to be. The animated adventure, featuring the voices of Zoe Saldaña, Yonas Kibreab, Remy Edgerly, and Brad Garrett, has a running time of one hour, 39 minutes, and is rated PG. Elio is certified "fresh" with a 86 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; "generally favorable" reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 66 percent.
Director: Simon West Distributor: Magenta Light Studios When a mercenary group takes a lavish wedding hostage, they have no idea what they are in for as the maid of honor is actually a secret agent ready to rain hellfire upon anyone who would ruin her best friend's wedding. The action-comedy, starring Rebel Wilson, Anna Camp, Anna Chlumsky, and Da'Vine Joy Randolph, has a running time of one hour, 45 minutes, and is rated R. Bride Hard is certified "rotten" with a 27 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; "overwhelmingly negative" reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 15 percent.
BOX-OFFICE PREDICTIONS
How to Train Your Dragon shows no signs of slowing down, expected to stoke the box-office flames with $40 million in its second weekend. In the highly competitive battle for second place, projections suggest 28 Years Later will narrowly edge out Elio, with the latter facing stiff competition for the younger audience still captivated by Dragon. Each are expected to earn around $30 million.
Speaking of younger audiences, Disney's Lilo & Stitch remake is likely to secure fourth place this weekend, bringing in another $8 million domestically. The film has already proven to be a massive success, grossing $864 million worldwide to date.
Rounding out the top five will likely be A24's Materialists, a rom-com from Celine Song starring Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal. However, it faces fierce competition from Tom Cruise's action-packed Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning. Paramount's blockbuster continues to draw audiences, amassing $509 million globally so far. It wouldn't be surprising if Cruise manages to overtake Materialists in the final rankings.
Here are Gold Derby's predictions box-office rankings for the top five:
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2. 28 Years Later 3. Elio 4. Lilo & Stitch 5. Materialists
Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it's fun and easy! Join the box-office discussion in our forums.
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