Blue Jays second-half storylines to watch: What will surge mean for deadline?
A 10-game winning streak helped the Jays overcome a down year and defy preseason expectations. But the post-break stretch will define the team's true ceiling. With questions surrounding Toronto's trade deadline plans, core sluggers and ailing pitching staff, here are three Blue Jays second-half storylines to watch.
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The last time the Blue Jays made the playoffs, two of the club's starting pitchers earned Cy Young votes. Toronto's rotation had the third-best ERA in 2023 and provided the fifth-most innings from any starting staff. The 2025 Jays couldn't be more different.
Eric Lauer is the only regular Blue Jays starter with an ERA or FIP under 3.75 at the All-Star break. The team's starters logged the seventh-fewest innings in the first half, and now Toronto's bullpen is leaking, too. Yimí García, Nick Sandlin and Ryan Burr all hit the injured list in the last two weeks.
Toronto's back of the bullpen still contains solid leverage options, and the veteran rotation gives the offence a chance to win. But, overall, Toronto's team ERA (4.16) ranks 22nd. The 2023 Texas Rangers are the only franchise in the last 15 years to win the World Series with a below-average team ERA.
There is hope for Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. The trio's expected ERAs all sit at least one-quarter run below their actual, signalling potential post-break improvement. Rehabbing hurlers like Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann could become late-season options for Toronto, while Sandlin and García are expected to return to the bullpen in the second half. But more injuries or significant second-half slides could push Toronto's pitching from a manageable concern to a costly catastrophe.
There is no doubt general manager Ross Atkins will add to this Blue Jays roster at the July 31 MLB trade deadline. The Jays sit atop the American League East, closer to a first-round bye than a Wild Card spot. It's buying time.
But there are multiple paths to upgrading Toronto's roster. With injury concerns around Scherzer's thumb, churn in the bullpen and the uncertain status of Anthony Santander's hip, Andrés Giménez's ankle and Daulton Varsho's hamstring, Atkins could bring in floor-raising depth. The Jays could easily patch holes with guys like starter Tomoyuki Sugano, reliever Dennis Santana and infielder Amed Rosario and call it a deadline.
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But there's a chance to raise the ceiling of this team, turning a surprise division leader into a real October threat. Those moves will cost more, draining a Blue Jays farm in the middle of a strong season, but there's room on this roster for a rotation leader, fire-breathing reliever and serious power threat.
Likely, Atkins' deadline moves include a combination of depth and studs. But the magnitude of Toronto's additions will remain the juiciest storyline surrounding this team in the next two weeks. Expectations have grown at Rogers Centre, but the July 31 buys will dictate how high they get.
Bichette owns the fourth-most hits in MLB at the break. Guerrero is Toronto's most valuable player by Baseball Reference WAR and rocks a career-high 13.5 percent walk rate. Neither is in the midst of a bad offensive season.
But the Blue Jays' pair of sluggers earned MVP votes in three of the last four campaigns. For a long time, they've been the offence's driving force. While the 2025 Jays are enjoying their best hitting season in four years, Bichette and Guerrero are underperforming their career OPS averages by 9 percent. Both are on pace for 20 homers, which would mark career lows.
Toronto's slugging success comes on the back of unexpected contributions — Addison Barger's breakout, George Springer's resurgence and guys like Nathan Lukes and Ernie Clement. Neither Bichette, a pending free agent, nor Guerrero, after inking a $500 million extension, have rattled off the scorching hot streak they're known for.
In July and August last year, Guerrero hit over .360 with 14 homers and an OPS over 1.100. September is often Bichette's top month, as he owns a lifetime .323 average and .890 OPS in the final 30 days. If Toronto's lineup depth falters, pressure on Bichette and Guerrero will rise in the second half. If the batting order maintains, hot streaks from the core pair could turn a division race into a late-season blowout. Either way, Bichette and Guerrero will be at the centre of the Jays' second-half hopes.
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