Fantasy baseball bullpen report: How the MLB trade deadline reshaped leverage pathways

New York Times

01-08-2025

After the trade-deadline dust settled, the high-leverage ecosystem underwent a vortex of activity, wreaking havoc on many fantasy teams' closing situations. Inherent risk comes with the territory; however, when three teams decided to build 'Super Bullpens,' ripple effects impacted the fantasy baseball landscape. In a copycat league, the Dodgers won a World Championship with a deep and pliable bullpen while their starting pitchers averaged less than four innings in the postseason. Three teams have followed suit:
Being proactive with our labels, here are the fantasy implications from the trade deadline moves.
Jhoan Durán (PHI): Durán will anchor the leverage ladder on a better team, and even if he gets 70% of the remaining saves, it enhances his appeal. Currently, Fangraphs projects the Phillies for 30 more wins, which could result in 10-plus saves for the talented closer.
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Dennis Santana (PIT): Santana was not traded and will take over as the closer for the Pirates, riding a seven-game scoreless streak with a win, a save and nine strikeouts against three walks over his last seven innings.
Randy Rodríguez (SF): Although not confirmed, it was inferred that Rodríguez will take over most save chances following the departure of Doval and Rogers.
Jose A. Ferrer (WSH): Since the start of 2024, Kyle Finnegan has recorded 58 of his team's 61 saves. Ferrer may not get all the save chances for the remainder of the season, but he represents the team's best option.
Griffin Jax (TB): While he may not get saves initially, Jax is under team control through 2027 and could thrive with his new team's analytical nuances. With a better defense behind him, don't be surprised if Jax records five saves through the end of the season.
Cade Smith (CLE): With Emmanuel Clase suspended until August 31, Smith represents the team's replacement for saves.
Other relievers not impacted by the trade deadline include:
Mason Miller (SD): Per Dennis Lin, the team plans on keeping Robert Suárez entrenched as the closer. As a point of reference, from his first appearance after being acquired last year, Tanner Scott recorded four saves while Suárez notched 13 after August 3, setting a baseline for Miller, who can still accrue ancillary saves while racking up strikeouts and protecting a team's ratios.
Ryan Helsley (NYM): Helsley's in a similar situation in a different location. Helsley can still record ancillary saves with the Mets while building his portfolio as a pending free agent with a strong postseason. He will be dropped in shallow formats, but in deeper leagues, he can be a viable stream option for saves when Díaz is unavailable.
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Kyle Finnegan (DET): There is a chance A.J. Hinch incorporates Finnegan into save situations, but Will Vest has been the better pitcher between the two. I project Finnegan as an eighth-inning option, working with Tommy Kahnle and Tyler Holton as setup relievers for Vest.
Shelby Miller (MIL): He will no longer close out games when activated.
David Bednar and Camilo Doval (NYY): Keeper-league players face a tougher decision, as these relievers are under team control through 2026 and 2027, respectively. Williams and Weaver will be free agents at the end of this year. How the Yankees restructure their bullpen will be intriguing, as it will make fantasy decisions easier down the road based on usage patterns and performance.
St. Louis Cardinals: Manager Oli Marmol has stated the team will use a matchup-based approach during leverage situations following Helsley's departure. JoJo Romero will face an opponent's toughest left-handed hitter or hitting pocket, while Kyle Leahy and Riley O'Brien will also be involved in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. I lean toward Leahy early, but O'Brien could emerge with a save share as the season progresses.
Minnesota Twins: Cole Sands may be the last man standing after the team traded its entire bullpen hierarchy and two matchup relievers in the sixth inning (Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart). I project him as the preferred save option. Still, manager Rocco Baldelli can pull the rug out from under the fantasy community, so it's with cautious optimism, though save chances may be sparse after the team's deadline roster purge.
The Athletics: There has been no indication about how the team will replace Miller at the top of the hierarchy. Jack Perkins could be the fill-in, but he's also in consideration for taking over the vacated rotation spot for JP Sears. Sean Newcomb has recorded a save since joining the team, and Michael Kelly has provided solid setup results. Luis Morales may be a wild card. He has transitioned into a reliever for the remainder of the season to monitor his workload. Since the switch at Triple A, he has 20 strikeouts against six walks, but in his last three scoreless appearances, he has racked up eight strikeouts versus no walks (42.1 K-BB%) through six innings with a 0.33 WHIP.
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Baltimore Orioles: Corbin Martin and Keegan Akin may be sharing save chances by lineup pockets. Yennier Cano's recent implosion makes it challenging to trust him during save situations and for fantasy ratios. Keeper-league players should monitor Tyson Neighbors, acquired from the Padres as a future high-leverage reliever.
Considering all of these changes, our leverage pathways have been updated. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.
Statistical Credits: Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com and BrooksBaseball.net. Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates.
(Photo of Jhoan Durán: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)