Net annual office leasing in India to hit all-time high of 50 million square feet in FY27
Grade A commercial office space
in India will clock a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-9% in two fiscals through 2027 and cross the 50 million sq ft mark in the financial year 2026-27, said ratings agency Crisil.
Supply, on the other hand, is expected to be 53-57 million sq ft annually, thereby driving 6.5-7% CAGR expansion in the overall office stock during this period.
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Consequently, occupancy levels are expected to improve, which will increase cash flows for commercial office players. This, coupled with prudent leverage, will keep credit profiles stable, the ratings agency said based on its study of 78 commercial office space developers, accounting for around a fourth of the Grade A office stock in the country.
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'With healthy demand absorbing the elevated supply, the overall vacancy level for India's Grade A office market is expected to decline to 15.5-16.0% by the end of fiscal 2027. That will mark a 100 basis points (bps) improvement over fiscal 2025. While overall vacancy is expected to reduce over this period, the trend will vary across micro-markets,' said Gautam Shahi, Director,
Crisil Ratings
.
After a remarkable recovery in the past two fiscals post Covid-19 pandemic, India's commercial office market is set for steady net leasing growth over the medium term (see the chart in annexure), driven by reduced work-from-home arrangements and strong demand from global capability centres (GCCs).
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GCCs continue to remain a key driver of growth, encouraged by India's large, skilled talent pool and cost advantages. They now account for 30-40% of annual net leasing of commercial office space across sectors.
From a sectoral perspective, over the next two fiscal years, net leasing will be driven by double-digit growth from the BFSI sector and companies offering flexible workspaces (flex). Growth in the BFSI sector is being driven by steady credit growth, increasing assets under management and employee additions. Flex operators will continue to expand by offering agile, cost-effective, and hybrid-friendly solutions to companies.
In contrast, the net leasing growth by the IT/ITeS sector is expected to remain moderate, with demand growing 5-6%. This will be driven by GCCs as net leasing by domestic companies in the IT/ITeS space remains low.
On the supply side, commercial office space additions, which moderated a tad to 47 million sq ft last fiscal, is expected to increase to 53-55 million sq ft this fiscal with the scheduled completion of several ongoing projects.
According to the ratings agency, supply is expected to be steady at 55-57 million sq ft next fiscal, with developers calibrating their pipelines amid higher vacancies in certain micro-markets. As a result, the overall office stock is projected to expand to around 920-925 million sq ft by the end of fiscal 2027, from around 810 million sq ft as of March 2025.
The Mumbai Metropolitan Region and the National Capital Region, which together account for about a third of the commercial office inventory, may see vacancy levels decline 200-250 basis points (bps) on strong demand from the BFSI, flex and IT/ITeS sectors.
The southern micro-markets, which comprise about half of the office stock, are likely to maintain stable vacancy levels despite strong upcoming supplies, because of continued demand from GCCs.
In contrast, the Pune micro-market may see a slight increase in vacancies due to significant upcoming office supply, which could outstrip demand growth.
'Declining vacancy levels, along with contracted rental escalations and recent interest rate cuts by the central bank, are expected to improve cash flows of commercial office players. This, along with prudent leveraging by developers, should keep their credit profiles healthy this fiscal and the next. As a result, the annual DSCR5 is expected to improve to 1.9-2.0 times this fiscal and the next from 1.7 times last fiscal,' said Snehil Shukla, Associate Director, Crisil Ratings,
The
debt to EBITDA ratio
is also projected to improve to 4.0-4.2 times by March 2027 from 4.7 times as of March 2025. That said, evolving geopolitical challenges and global economic slowdown impacting net leasing by GCCs, and higher-than-expected leveraging by players will remain monitorable.
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