
Domestic banking sector: Pakistan govt sets Rs5.75trn borrowing target for Q1
This target represents a 40 percent increase compared to the first quarter of FY25, when the borrowing goal was set at Rs 3.970 trillion.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday issued calendars for the auction of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) and Government of Pakistan Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) for July-September period of this fiscal year.
Securities' auction procedures: SBP unveils changes
The government is intended to meet the major financing requirements through sale of short-term government security papers-MTBs. The federal government has planned to raise some Rs 2.4 trillion through sale of PIBs during the first quarter of this fiscal year. Some Rs 1 trillion will be borrowed through sale of PIB (Fixed Rate), Rs 1.4 trillion through PIB (Floating Rate) Semi-Annual auction.
Auctions for PIB (Fixed Rate) will be held on July 16 and August 1, 2025 with a targeted borrowing of Rs 300 billion for each auction, while another Rs 400 billion will be raised in September 2025. In addition, some six auctions of PIB (Floating Rate) will be held during the first quarter of FY26 to achieve the borrowing target of Rs 1.4 trillion.
The federal government also intends to raise Rs 3.175 trillion through sale of short-term government security papers during July-Sep of FY26. Overall, some 6 auctions of T-Bills to be conducted to meet the financing target. First auction of MTBs will be held on July 9, 2025 with a tentative target of Rs 1.35 trillion.
Economists said the less than revenue collection has compelled the government to borrow more from the domestic resources to finance the fiscal deficit. They said that massive borrowing resulted in over Rs 8 trillion interest payments in this fiscal year.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Business Recorder
3 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Federal govt and provinces: Senate body seeks ‘out of box' fix for NHP dispute
ISLAMABAD: The Senate Standing Committee on Power headed by Senator Mohsin Aziz is scheduled to meet on Monday (today) to find out an 'out of box' solution on the dispute on Net Hydel Profit (NHP) between Federal Government and provinces, particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has reportedly distanced itself from the proposal of out of box solution of current controversy on NHP. Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiative, Ahsan Iqbal is also heading a committee on this issue. Ministry of Energy (Power Division) is represented by the CEO of CPPA-G and the MD of PPMC The Committee has convened five meetings attended by the representatives of all four Provinces, the Ministry of Energy (Power Division), the Finance Division. Further update on the finalisation may be shared by the Ministry of IPC. KP formulates strategy aimed at recovering NHP dues According to WAPDA, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) based on Article 161(2) of the Constitution determines the sale rate at Bus Bar of hydel power stations. However, calculating NHP has been tricky due to conflicting claims and interpretations of the Kazi Committee Methodology. Various attempts have been made to resolve this, including ad-hoc payments and arbitration, but a long-term solution remains unresolved. After power sector restructuring and becoming NEPRA licencee, WAPDA paid Rs. 6 billion annually to the Govt, of KP as NHP until FY 2014-15, which was later uncapped at Rs 1.10 per kWh by NEPRA in FY 2015-16, following GoKP's request for settlement of all previous NHP arrears by making payments of Rs.70 billion in four installment and notification of uncapped NHP rate of Rs 1.10/kWh-an MoU was signed between Govt of Pakistan and Govt. of KP on February 25, 2016. The MoU was also approved by CCI on February 29, 2016 and later the settlement of Govt of Punjab's claims of Rs.82.71 billion and payment of regular NHP at uncapped rate was also agreed and approved by CCI on December 16, 2016. Despite paying NHP at the uncapped rate that was further enhanced by NEPRA from Rs.1.10/kWh to Rs.1.155/kWh in FY 2017-18 and CCI's overriding of its earlier decision of Jan 1991 regarding KCM through approving the said MoU, the GoKP again raised the issue in CCI and asked for payment of NHP as per KCM. WAPDA argues that considering Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission's report (suggesting WAPDA's replacement with CPPA-G for NHP obligations), ECC's decision of January 24, 2019 (Power Division to lead efforts to secure financing for NHP payments to provinces) and Finance Minister's remarks during 49th CCI meeting (Finance Division is working on clearing NHP outstanding dues of KPK and Punjab, and in future CPPA-G will directly pay NHP to provinces), the Power Division and CPPA-G are in better position to propose an out of box solution for NHP payment . WAPDA doesn't profit from selling power at hydel stations, as NHP is a pass through item and makes the NHP payment to provinces as per government guidelines and regulations. WAPDA's outstanding recovery from CPPA-G against power sales invoices has sharply increased due to delayed payments, hindering WAPDA's ability to make timely NHP payments to provinces, despite regular billing at NEPRA-determined rates. Currently, WAPDA has to pay NHP of Rs.49.565 billion to GoKP and Rs. 114.584 billion (including Rs. 13.617 billion as NHP arrears) to GoPb. WAPDA maintains that Power Division and CPPA-G are in better position to propose an out of box solution for NHP payment. Power Division (Power Planning & Monitoring Company): PPMC has offered the following comments: (i) Article 161(2) of Pakistan's 1973 Constitution requires that net profits from hydroelectric power generation be paid to the province where the power station is located, calculated by deducting operating expenses from bus bar revenue, and explicitly excludes Net Hydel Profit (NHP) as a pass-through cost to electricity consumers ;(ii) KCM calculates NHP by aggregating power generation income, but this approach, formulated in 1985-86 was based on a unified and unbundled WAPDA being the sole power producer and distributor. Now, Pakistan's energy landscape has changed significantly including WAPDA's unbundling, emergence of IPPS, and shifts in the power mix wherein hydro power contributes 27% (approx.) ;(iii) NHP payments should be made through the federal budget or covered by WAPDA's profits from hydropower sales, rather than consumers; (iv) commenting on GoKP's proposal, PPMC is of the view that the transfer of hydropower plants to provinces is governed by the Power Generation policies of 1995 and 2015 that is applicable to BOOT-based IPP projects developed within a province by private sponsors. The WAPDA Act lacks provisions for transferring hydropower plants constructed under its mandate to the provinces, and its projects are primarily financed through PSDP, donor loans, and internal funds, after accounting for NHP; (v) NHP payment through ESCROW account, does not align with the legal and regulatory framework and the constitutional scheme. Regarding wheeling of power from PEDO and wheeling charges determination, B2B electricity supply through wheeling arrangements will be integrated into IGCEP and TSEP under the CTBCM Directive No. 7. NEPRA's periodical regime, determined water usage charges should be reviewed based on the mechanism applied in various countries. Government of Sindh: The Provincial Government submitted proposal regarding transferring Hydro Electric Stations to the respective provinces in lieu of NHP requires clarification as presently no hydro power station is managed in IPPs mode. It further stated that the hydro-electric power generation is a bi-product of 'Water Reservoir Projects (Dams)'. While framing any such proposal, the basic purpose of construction of these reservoirs be considered and IRSA be included in the committee. Govt of Sindh further contended that transfer of Hydro Electric Stations to provinces requires careful consideration of the primary purpose of water reservoir projects. To ensure a comprehensive approach, it is suggested to include representatives from IRSA, Finance Division, and Economic Affairs Division in the committee to provide technical, financial, and economic expertise. Govt of Sindh has reiterated its earlier stance on NHP, reflected in the minutes of 49th CCI meeting which is as follows; 'Chief Minister, Punjab endorsed views of DCPC and asked for early payment of Rs. 58 billion dues of NHP owned to Punjab. The Chief Minister, Sindh, endorsed the NHP claim of Chief Ministers of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab being constitutional. He, however, did not support increase in tariff and its passing on to consumers. He said that since profit was utilized by WAPDA it should now be accounted for'. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


Business Recorder
4 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Fiscal trap: is it time to end the cycle of endless consolidation?
In the context of Pakistan, conduct of macroeconomic policy rests on two broad pillars: an increasingly independent monetary policy and a persistently constrained fiscal policy. Over the past two decades, the SBP has gradually acquired operational and legal autonomy, helping it to steer monetary policy with a degree of institutional discipline. By contrast, fiscal policy remains hostage to entrenched political bargains, rigid structural arrangements, and an ever-expanding government footprint that now threatens to push the upper taxation and public debt limits of what the economy — and its citizens — can bear. At the heart of this dilemma is Pakistan's mounting dependence on predatory taxation and borrowings for federal deficit financing. Limited access to external capital markets — largely due to weak external credit ratings and recurrent balance of payments crises — has forced successive governments to lean heavily on domestic borrowing. But with local banks already saturated with government paper, the room for even higher domestic borrowings has shrunk dramatically. The result is an endless cycle of fiscal consolidation — tightening budgets year after year, squeezing the after-tax profitability of businesses and disposable income of households, that ultimately results in suppression of investments and growth recovery. The FY26 federal budget, shaped under the latest IMF-supported EFF arrangement, starkly illustrates how deeply this pattern is now entrenched. Headline numbers may suggest progress: the government pledges to shrink the overall deficit from 5.6 percent to 3.9 percent of GDP, while nudging the primary surplus up slightly to 2.4 percent. Yet beneath these surface figures lies a troubling reality: nearly all the adjustment burden falls on over-ambitious revenue targets and suppressed primary spending, not on a genuine structural rebalancing of fiscal architecture. The revenue side alone tells the story. Tax collections are budgeted to grow by nearly 19 percent in FY26, which is on the back of 29 percent growth in actual tax collection in FY25. If history is any guide, continued mobilization of additional predatory taxation will prove exceedingly difficult to achieve without intensifying the pressure on an already burdened formal sector. As per the IMF's First EFF Report (published in May 2025), the baseline medium-term macroeconomic framework projects real growth to increase modestly from 3.6 percent in FY26 to 4.1 percent in FY27, and then stabilizing around 4.5 percent through FY30. Despite official claims regarding the implementation of structural reforms, projected baseline growth remains constrained by the persistent imperative to avert balance of payments crises. The tenuous nature of the current fiscal consolidation strategy is underscored by the EFF baseline macroeconomic projections. Specifically, the growth rate of tax revenues is projected to decline progressively, from 17 percent in FY26 to 12 percent in FY27, 10 percent in FY28, and stabilizing at approximately 11 percent in both FY29 and FY30—corresponding to an estimated 12 percent of GDP. Concurrently, primary expenditure (excluding debt servicing) is projected to increase from 10 percent of GDP in FY26 to 12 percent in FY27, peak at 13 percent in FY28, and revert to 11 percent in FY29 and FY30—equivalent to roughly 14 percent of GDP. Predictably, under this fiscal framework, debt servicing obligations are projected to gradually decline from 8 percent of GDP in FY25 to 5 percent by FY30. Nevertheless, the First EFF Report classifies the overall risk of sovereign stress as 'high' in both the short and medium term, while the long-term risk is assessed as 'moderate,' despite the projected stabilization of debt servicing within the baseline scenario. This 'high' sovereign stress is mainly due to elevated gross external financing needs, low fiscal and forex buffers. One cannot understand Pakistan's fiscal trap without examining the legacy of the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award of 2010. This constitutional arrangement mandates that 57.5 percent of federal tax revenues be transferred to the provinces—a well-intentioned federalist constitutional design to devolve functional responsibility and spending. In theory, this should have allowed the federal government to shrink its own footprint. In practice, however, the federal government has only grown larger. Federal expenditures have risen at an average annual rate exceeding 14 percent since 2010, leaving a gaping hole between net federal revenues and ever-growing debt servicing costs. Each fiscal year now begins with a stark arithmetic: once transfers to the provinces are made, the federal government must borrow—domestically and at increasingly high cost—just to cover current expenditures, let alone development spending. Half of all federal spending now goes to service debt. The cycle sustains itself through more borrowing, higher taxes, and a steady erosion of fiscal credibility. To bridge this gap, the ongoing EFF programme stitched a National Fiscal Pact (NFP), committing provinces to run surpluses. But these provincial surpluses are retained and reinvested locally, not flowing back as revenues to narrow the federal deficit. For FY26 budget, this leaves the federal government with an estimated standalone deficit of over PKR 6.5 trillion—even as the consolidated national deficit appears moderate on paper. The EFF baseline projections suggest that headline debt-to-GDP ratios to decline from 78 percent to 64 percent by FY30, assuming tight adherence to primary surplus targets. But such headline improvements disguise the deeper malaise: the ratio of public debt to tax revenue will remain among the highest in comparable economies, and the underlying fiscal asymmetry between federal obligations and available net revenues will persist. What, then, is the alternative? Incremental tinkering—shaving a few percentage points off expenditure here, tweaking taxes there—has failed to break the cycle for over a decade. A more credible pathway would start with an interim recalibration of the NFC Award. By treating debt servicing and defence spending as first charges on federal revenue, and adjusting the vertical revenue share in the centre's favour, the structural imbalance can be narrowed over the medium term. Equally critical is the question of domestic debt restructuring. Both provincial budgets and well-capitalised domestic banks can absorb carefully managed adjustment costs of debt restructuring. Such domestic debt restructuring must be underpinned by robust legal safeguards and vigilant oversight to protect financial sector stability. The goal of domestic debt restructuring must be to free up fiscal space and then to lower the tax burden on businesses and improve disposable incomes that will help to revive private investment. But these measures alone would not suffice without durable institutional guardrails. Pakistan needs a fiscal charter that binds governments to prudent borrowing and spending ratios, closes avenues for regressive and predatory taxation, and enforces broadening of tax base and mandatory tax compliance. A permanent parliamentary fiscal oversight mechanism could further strengthen accountability, ensuring that borrowing decisions and contingent liabilities are subject to transparent scrutiny. None of this will be politically easy. Rebalancing the NFC Award is a deeply sensitive undertaking in a federation where provincial autonomy is jealously guarded. Domestic debt restructuring invites resistance from powerful stakeholders. Yet the stakes could hardly be clearer: without structural recalibration, Pakistan's fiscal policy will remain shackled to a perpetual cycle of consolidation that neither restores' macroeconomic stability nor unlocks the country's latent growth potential. The broader aim must be to free fiscal policy from its reactive, debt-driven posture and enable it to function alongside monetary policy as a genuine countercyclical tool. In the absence of this, macroeconomic stability will remain elusive, private investment will remain stifled, and the promise of inclusive growth will remain perpetually deferred. The depressing social and economic outturns during FY23-FY25 should serve as a wake-up call, the next FY27 budget must not be yet another missed opportunity. The time for halfway measures is long gone. Pakistan's political leadership must decide whether they wish to continue administering the same palliative year after year—or whether they are finally prepared to confront the structural roots of the fiscal trap that has held the economy back for far too long. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


Business Recorder
4 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Federal government and provinces: Senate body seeks ‘out of box' fix for NHP dispute
ISLAMABAD: The Senate Standing Committee on Power headed by Senator Mohsin Aziz which is scheduled to meet on Monday (today) to find out an 'out of box' solution on the dispute on Net Hydel Profit (NHP) between Federal Government and provinces, particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has reportedly distanced itself from the proposal of out of box solution of current controversy on NHP. Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiative, Ahsan Iqbal is also heading a committee on this issue. Ministry of Energy (Power Division) is represented by the CEO of CPPA-G and the MD of PPMC The Committee has convened five meetings attended by the representatives of all four Provinces, the Ministry of Energy (Power Division), the Finance Division. Further update on the finalisation may be shared by the Ministry of IPC. KP formulates strategy aimed at recovering NHP dues According to WAPDA, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) based on Article 161(2) of the Constitution determines the sale rate at Bus Bar of hydel power stations. However, calculating NHP has been tricky due to conflicting claims and interpretations of the Kazi Committee Methodology. Various attempts have been made to resolve this, including ad-hoc payments and arbitration, but a long-term solution remains unresolved. After power sector restructuring and becoming NEPRA licencee, WAPDA paid Rs. 6 billion annually to the Govt, of KP as NHP until FY 2014-15, which was later uncapped at Rs 1.10 per kWh by NEPRA in FY 2015-16, following GoKP's request for settlement of all previous NHP arrears by making payments of Rs.70 billion in four installment and notification of uncapped NHP rate of Rs 1.10/kWh-an MoU was signed between Govt of Pakistan and Govt. of KP on February 25, 2016. The MoU was also approved by CCI on February 29, 2016 and later the settlement of Govt of Punjab's claims of Rs.82.71 billion and payment of regular NHP at uncapped rate was also agreed and approved by CCI on December 16, 2016. Despite paying NHP at the uncapped rate that was further enhanced by NEPRA from Rs.1.10/kWh to Rs.1.155/kWh in FY 2017-18 and CCI's overriding of its earlier decision of Jan 1991 regarding KCM through approving the said MoU, the GoKP again raised the issue in CCI and asked for payment of NHP as per KCM. WAPDA argues that considering Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission's report (suggesting WAPDA's replacement with CPPA-G for NHP obligations), ECC's decision of January 24, 2019 (Power Division to lead efforts to secure financing for NHP payments to provinces) and Finance Minister's remarks during 49th CCI meeting (Finance Division is working on clearing NHP outstanding dues of KPK and Punjab, and in future CPPA-G will directly pay NHP to provinces), the Power Division and CPPA-G are in better position to propose an out of box solution for NHP payment . WAPDA doesn't profit from selling power at hydel stations, as NHP is a pass through item and makes the NHP payment to provinces as per government guidelines and regulations. WAPDA's outstanding recovery from CPPA-G against power sales invoices has sharply increased due to delayed payments, hindering WAPDA's ability to make timely NHP payments to provinces, despite regular billing at NEPRA-determined rates. Currently, WAPDA has to pay NHP of Rs.49.565 billion to GoKP and Rs. 114.584 billion (including Rs. 13.617 billion as NHP arrears) to GoPb. WAPDA maintains that Power Division and CPPA-G are in better position to propose an out of box solution for NHP payment. Power Division (Power Planning & Monitoring Company): PPMC has offered the following comments: (i) Article 161(2) of Pakistan's 1973 Constitution requires that net profits from hydroelectric power generation be paid to the province where the power station is located, calculated by deducting operating expenses from bus bar revenue, and explicitly excludes Net Hydel Profit (NHP) as a pass-through cost to electricity consumers ;(ii) KCM calculates NHP by aggregating power generation income, but this approach, formulated in 1985-86 was based on a unified and unbundled WAPDA being the sole power producer and distributor. Now, Pakistan's energy landscape has changed significantly including WAPDA's unbundling, emergence of IPPS, and shifts in the power mix wherein hydro power contributes 27% (approx.) ;(iii) NHP payments should be made through the federal budget or covered by WAPDA's profits from hydropower sales, rather than consumers; (iv) commenting on GoKP's proposal, PPMC is of the view that the transfer of hydropower plants to provinces is governed by the Power Generation policies of 1995 and 2015 that is applicable to BOOT-based IPP projects developed within a province by private sponsors. The WAPDA Act lacks provisions for transferring hydropower plants constructed under its mandate to the provinces, and its projects are primarily financed through PSDP, donor loans, and internal funds, after accounting for NHP; (v) NHP payment through ESCROW account, does not align with the legal and regulatory framework and the constitutional scheme. Regarding wheeling of power from PEDO and wheeling charges determination, B2B electricity supply through wheeling arrangements will be integrated into IGCEP and TSEP under the CTBCM Directive No. 7. NEPRA's periodical regime, determined water usage charges should be reviewed based on the mechanism applied in various countries. Government of Sindh: The Provincial Government submitted proposal regarding transferring Hydro Electric Stations to the respective provinces in lieu of NHP requires clarification as presently no hydro power station is managed in IPPs mode. It further stated that the hydro-electric power generation is a bi-product of 'Water Reservoir Projects (Dams)'. While framing any such proposal, the basic purpose of construction of these reservoirs be considered and IRSA be included in the committee. Govt of Sindh further contended that transfer of Hydro Electric Stations to provinces requires careful consideration of the primary purpose of water reservoir projects. To ensure a comprehensive approach, it is suggested to include representatives from IRSA, Finance Division, and Economic Affairs Division in the committee to provide technical, financial, and economic expertise. Govt of Sindh has reiterated its earlier stance on NHP, reflected in the minutes of 49th CCI meeting which is as follows; 'Chief Minister, Punjab endorsed views of DCPC and asked for early payment of Rs. 58 billion dues of NHP owned to Punjab. The Chief Minister, Sindh, endorsed the NHP claim of Chief Ministers of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab being constitutional. He, however, did not support increase in tariff and its passing on to consumers. He said that since profit was utilized by WAPDA it should now be accounted for'. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025