Two international relations experts weigh threat of China against Australia's 'confusing' ally as tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific

Sky News AU

2 days ago

Two experts in the fields of defence, strategy and China have weighed the growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific and Australia's ties with a 'confusing antagonist' in the United States which could lead to 'significant harm' if a conflict with Taiwan eventuated.
It came after Sky News' Sunday Agenda reported Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would not accept the US request to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP and would stand by Labor's existing policy.
Under the government's projections, defence spending is forecast to reach 2.33 per cent of GDP by 2033–34, up from about 2.05 per cent in 2025-26.
Strategy and defence expert at the Australian National University Associate Professor, Andrew Carr, told SkyNews.com.au the Trump Administration was good at 'talking tough' on China, but on several economic and security issues it did not show the 'discipline or resolve' to follow through.
'China will know that US administrations pleaded with and insisted that allies do more to help Washington. Thus far, it has almost entirely fallen on deaf ears,'he said.
'The Trump Administration is right to be outraged that rich nations in Europe and Asia cheap-ride on the back of US taxpayers and soldiers. The Trump Administration is trying a very different approach to changing that dynamic, but it's not clear it will be anymore successful.'
Professor Carr said China's view of Taiwan was 'purely internal' and any Australian participation or support of American defence efforts, if China invaded, would lead to 'significant harm' to the Australia-China relationship.
Some experts consider 2027 as the year China's President Xi Jinping expects his military to be ready for war with Taiwan.
'That said, in such a conflict it's likely Canberra would be the one rushing to impose penalties and sanctions as a way to diplomatically and economically punish China for its attack,' Professor Carr said.
The strategy and defence expert said there was a 'clear escalation of tension' in the Indo-Pacific which had been steadily rising for more than a decade as China has poured money into its military.
'(China) has aggressively challenged the legal claims of most of its neighbours, has spied on and tried to corruptly buy influence around the entire region, and used economic and diplomatic means to punish any who speak out,' Professor Carr said.
The ANU professor said the Trump administration had been a 'somewhat confusing antagonist' as it has been very strident in rhetoric, such as US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth's speech, while being harmful in policy, such as the high tariffs and barriers to Chinese students in the US.
'So though the surface is choppy, some of the underlying currents are potentially much smoother,' he said.
'Trump talks a big game, but there's a reason the TACO nickname (Trump Always Chickens Out) is starting to catch on. Not just economically but strategically too.'
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last week, Mr Hegseth warned the threat of China was real and potentially imminent as he pushed allies in the Indo-Pacific to spend more on their own defence needs.
Mr Hegseth echoed the Trump administration's motto of maintaining 'peace through strength' and stressed the importance of restoring the 'warrior ethos'.
China expert Dr Edward Chan, a postdoctoral fellow in China Studies at the Australian National University, told SkyNews.com.au that while China had not 'explicitly' addressed the potential of Australia's participation in a US-led response to a cross-Strait conflict, it has expressed 'firm opposition' to broader trends in Australia's defence policy.
'Particularly in relation to its alignment with the US and its growing role in regional security arrangements,' Dr Chan said.
'For example, China has repeatedly criticised Australia's participation in the Quad and its commitment to AUKUS, arguing that such initiatives reflect a Cold War mentality and contribute to regional instability.'
Dr Chan said such moves are claimed by Chinese officials to 'intensify the arms race'.
The expert on China said among Chinese scholars there was a commonly used phrase that 'The United States has tied Australia to its chariot', which reflected the belief Canberra is being drawn into Washington's strategic agenda at the expense of regional stability.
In terms of the next few years, and whether tensions in the Indo-Pacific would escalate, Dr Chan said a level of 'strategic unease has already become the new normal' as many governments have reassessed their security postures as they appear to prepare for contingencies, even in the hope of avoiding them.
'That said, putting on my academic hat, I would argue that a direct military conflict in the region—particularly over flashpoints like Taiwan or the South China Sea—remains highly unlikely in the near term. The risks and costs of war would be enormous for all sides involved,' Dr Chan said.
'However, we can expect persistent 'grey zone' activity to continue—what might be called the ashes of geopolitical friction. This includes freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), increased coastguard and naval patrols, more frequent military exercises, strategic messaging, and tighter defence cooperation among like-minded countries.
'These activities are likely to become more routine.'
SkyNews.com.au contacted the Chinese Embassy and the Consulate on the matter, with both referring to the comments made by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Mr Hegseth's Shangri-La speech.
'Hegseth deliberately ignored the call for peace and development by countries in the region, and instead touted the Cold War mentality for bloc confrontation, vilified China with defamatory allegations, and falsely called China a 'threat',' a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said over the weekend.
'The remarks were filled with provocations and intended to sow discord. China deplores and firmly opposes them and has protested strongly to the US.
'To perpetuate its hegemony and advance the so-called 'Indo-Pacific strategy,' the US has deployed offensive weaponry in the South China Sea and kept stoking flames and creating tensions in the Asia-Pacific, which are turning the region into a powder keg and making countries in the region deeply concerned.'
As for the 'Taiwan question', the Foreign Ministry said it was entirely an 'internal affair', with no other country being in a position to 'interfere'.
'The US should never imagine it could use the Taiwan question as leverage against China. The US must never play with fire on this question,' the spokesperson said.
'China urges the US to fully respect the efforts of countries in the region to maintain peace and stability, stop deliberately destroying the peaceful and stable environment cherished by the region, and stop inciting conflict and confrontation and escalating tensions in the region.'