Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season expected, warn NOAA, NWS
'Everything's in place for an above-average season,' Ken Graham, director of the United States National Weather Service (NWS), told reporters in Louisiana.
The NWS predicts three to five major hurricanes this season.
Hot oceans and still, stagnant air over the ocean mean those storms could bring nearly twice the accumulated power of an average year — called the accumulated cyclone energy — to bear on the east coast of North America, Graham said.
Six to 10 total hurricanes will be formed out of the 13 to 19 named storms that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts.
At the high end, those numbers mark a significant uptick of in hurricane activity over an average year, which would see three major hurricanes, seven total hurricanes, and 14 named storms.
Speaking the week before the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the deadliest hurricane in U.S. history, Graham warned of the danger of surprise.
The most dangerous hurricanes, he warned, tended to develop fastest. 'Every category 5 storm to ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior. If you don't get goosebumps, I'll repeat it,' Graham said.
'The big ones that hit this country are fast.'
Jefferson Parish president Cynthia Lee Sheng called that detail 'frightening.'
'We live in almost a million people here. How do you evacuate an area like this in three days or less?' Lee Sheng asked.
Graham warned coastal and inland communities to get ready now: 'I've said this for decades — there's no Hurricane Justa — just-a category 2, or category 3. Every one of them is different. The bigger the storm, the slower the storm, the more the impact — I don't care about the category.'
'So we've got to be ready. There are no lines for supply right now. No lines for plywood. No lines for water. So while there's no lines, it's a good time to get up there and get supplies,' Graham said.
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