What to Expect in the Week Ahead: Inflation Data, Bank Earnings, and More Tariff Concerns
Market sentiment turned increasingly bearish in the closing days of last week, and stock futures indicate a volatile start to the week as investors brace themselves for the release of March inflation data and the beginning of the first-quarter earnings season, which will be marked by major bank reports. These developments come amid growing concerns over President Trump's tariff policies, which are scheduled to take effect Wednesday, with China's retaliatory measures following on Thursday.
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Economic Calendar Packed
Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will command significant attention as investors gauge price pressures following the tariff announcements that have reignited recession fears. Economists expect March inflation to remain unchanged after February's steeper-than-expected decrease.
Inflation remains a key factor in Federal Reserve decision-making about interest rates. The minutes from the Fed's March meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, will provide further insight into how officials view current economic conditions. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams are also scheduled to speak this week, potentially providing additional clues about the direction of monetary policy.
Friday brings the Producer Price Index (PPI), which highlights wholesale price trends that can ultimately affect consumer prices. The preliminary consumer sentiment data, also released Friday, will include consumer price expectations—an important indicator of future inflation trends.
Beyond inflation data and earnings, this week's economic calendar includes consumer credit (Monday), wholesale inventories (Wednesday), and initial jobless claims (Thursday). These reports will help investors assess consumer financial health and business inventory trends amid the uncertain economic climate.
Big Banks Launch Earnings Season
The first-quarter earnings season begins in earnest on Friday, with reports from financial heavyweights JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK).
JPMorgan, the world's largest bank by market capitalization, surprised analysts last quarter with stronger-than-expected profits driven by growth in investment banking and net interest income. Investors will watch for continued momentum in these areas.
BlackRock's announcement comes after the company reported record assets under management last quarter. Analysts will likely seek updates on the firm's $30 billion AI infrastructure funding collaboration with Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Elon Musk's xAI.
Earlier in the week, other notable earnings reports include Levi Strauss (LEVI) on Monday, Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) on Tuesday, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Wednesday. Delta recently lowered its quarterly projections, citing weakening travel demand amid economic uncertainty.
Looking to The Week Ahead
With numerous potential market-moving events on the horizon, analysts suggest that any positive developments regarding global trade could trigger a sharp rebound, given the steep sell-off last week. However, if tariff tensions escalate or economic data disappoints, the selling pressure will likely continue throughout the week.
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