Trump's NASDAQ Up 5.2% In First Half After Biden's 18% 2024 Pop
Nasdaq rose 5.2% in the first half of 2025 — a far cry from the first half of 2024's 18% increase
TOPSHOT - (COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 22, 2020 shows US President Donald ... More Trump (L) and Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski and JIM WATSON / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKIJIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images
In the first half of 2025, stock market indices barely budged — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq inched up 5,2% as of June 27.
The first half of 2024 was much more profitable for investors as the S&P 500 rose 14% and the Nasdaq rose 18%.
In 2025, tariff concerns, slower economic growth, high market volatility and slower rate cuts also tamped down stock averages.
The market averages did relatively poorly in the first half of 2025 compared to the year before.
The DJIA was up 3.4% — compared to a 4% for the first half of 2024; the S&P 500 (+5.2%) vs. 14% in the first half of 2024; and Nasdaq (+5.2%) vs. 18% in the first half of 2024, according to Google Finance .
The lower growth of the Nasdaq in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024 is likely due to slower economic growth and more uncertainty, much higher volatility and a shift away from the U.S., and less aggressive rate cuts.
These stock-unfriendly conditions contrast sharply with last years' generative AI frenzy, about which I wrote in Brain Rush , relatively strong corporate earnings, and investor expectations for rate cuts. Slower Economic Growth And Increased Uncertainty Tariff Concerns: The first half of 2025 has been marked by renewed concerns about the impact of trade tariffs and protectionist policies, particularly related to the Trump administration. These policies create uncertainty about future economic growth, which can weigh on investor sentiment, noted Investopedia .
The first half of 2025 has been marked by renewed concerns about the impact of trade tariffs and protectionist policies, particularly related to the Trump administration. These policies create uncertainty about future economic growth, which can weigh on investor sentiment, noted . Decelerating GDP Growth: Projections indicate a deceleration in U.S. GDP growth in 2025 compared to 2024. This slowdown in economic expansion, coupled with rising inflation due to higher import costs, creates a challenging environment for market growth, reported CBS News . Shift In Market Dynamics Focus on International Markets: Lagging U.S. stock performance and uncertainty regarding U.S. policy have prompted investors to consider international markets for opportunities. This diversification can lead to a less concentrated focus on the domestic tech-heavy Nasdaq, noted Charles Schwab .
Lagging U.S. stock performance and uncertainty regarding U.S. policy have prompted investors to consider international markets for opportunities. This diversification can lead to a less concentrated focus on the domestic tech-heavy Nasdaq, noted . Market Volatility: The market has experienced a volatile period with initial losses followed by a sharp rebound. This volatility, including fluctuations related to interest rates, can make investors more cautious and lead to slower growth compared to a strong bull market. Less Aggressive Interest Rate Cuts Slower Pace of Cuts: While interest rate cuts were anticipated and partially supported market gains in 2024, the pace of these cuts might be slower than initially expected in 2025. This slower pace could limit the upward pressure on stock valuations. Why The First Half Of 2024 Was Better For Stocks Artificial Intelligence Frenzy: The AI boom and the performance of related stocks, like Nvidia, about which I wrote in my book, Brain Rush , contributed to significant gains in the Nasdaq and the broader market.
The AI boom and the performance of related stocks, like Nvidia, about which I wrote in my book, , contributed to significant gains in the Nasdaq and the broader market. Strong Corporate Earnings: Corporate earnings in the first half of 2024 were generally strong supporting positive investor sentiment.
Corporate earnings in the first half of 2024 were generally strong supporting positive investor sentiment. Expectations for Rate Cuts: Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts fueled optimism about the economy and stock valuations.
Top performing S&P 500 stocks benefited from changes in government policy which in some cases included government contracts. Palantir Technologies shares rose 74.2% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from AI-powered services and government contracts, according to Yahoo! Finance .
shares rose 74.2% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from AI-powered services and government contracts, according to . NRG Energy (+74.5%) due to solid financial performance and prospects for growth due to the company's decarbonization strategy, noted The Globe And Mail .
(+74.5%) due to solid financial performance and prospects for growth due to the company's decarbonization strategy, noted . Howmet Aerospace (+67%) with help from strong demand for aerospace parts from the commercial and defense sectors, reported Yahoo! Finance .
The biggest S&P 500 losers in the first half suffered from a drop in consumer spending related to tariff increases and economic uncertainty along with government health care policy changes.
The three biggest losers include: Deckers Outdoor's stock price fell 49.2% in the first half of 2025 due largely to tariff uncertainty which contributed to the company's failure to offer 2025 guidance during the first quarter earnings, wrote Investopedia .
stock price fell 49.2% in the first half of 2025 due largely to tariff uncertainty which contributed to the company's failure to offer 2025 guidance during the first quarter earnings, wrote . UnitedHealth (-38.7%) in the wake of a sharp increase in healthcare utilization and a reduced earnings per share forecast, according to TipRanks .
(-38.7%) in the wake of a sharp increase in healthcare utilization and a reduced earnings per share forecast, according to . Moderna (-35,3%) Moderna cut its 2025 revenue forecast in the wake of reduced demand for its Covid-19 vaccine and the loss of a government contract to develop a bird flu vaccine, noted Trefis .
Companies such as Palantir and Oracle that the Trump administration favors — SFGate reports both were co-sponsors of Trump's military birthday parade — could enjoy a continued rise in their stock prices as companies vulnerable to tariffs and changing health care policies continue to tank.
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