Explained: what is China's Two Sessions meeting?
The event is called the 'two sessions' because both the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) hold their annual meetings separately, but at the same time. The CPPCC is an advisory body, with little real political influence but often sees some outside-the-box proposals for issues like China's demographic crisis. Its members include business executives, celebrities and celebrated individuals who previously included the likes of actor Jackie Chan and basketballer Yao Ming. The 3,000-member NPC is the Chinese Communist party's legislative body, but is largely a 'rubber stamp' parliament, having never rejected a bill put before it.
The meetings include 'work report' speeches by the premier, and sometimes – but not always – speeches by the party leader. Official economic targets are set, military budgets announced, and changes in the ranks of party leadership bodies are confirmed.
The Two Sessions gathering has hosted hugely significant policy changes in the past. In 2023 it saw the formalisation of Xi Jinping's precedent-busting third term as leader. In 2020 the NPC unveiled plans for the national security law now in place over Hong Kong.
This year observers are looking out for major economic stimulus policies to address China's struggling economy and high youth unemployment, as well as changes in the party's approach to the tech industry. The sector was out in the cold for a number of years, apparently having strayed too far from Xi's ideology. But a recent symposium saw several high profile executives welcomed and greeted by Xi, broadcast on state media.
There will likely be pronouncements on Taiwan. Xi and the Chinese Communist party (CCP) have long voiced their intentions to annex Taiwan, refusing to rule out using force to do so. Taiwan's government and people increasingly oppose the prospect of Chinese rule, and the situation has grown increasingly hostile and precarious. In the last few weeks language coming from the CCP about Taiwan has grown a little harsher, according to observers who watch carefully for even the most minute changes in the CCP's carefully crafted statements.
And then of course in the background, is the return of Trump and his tariffs on China.
The Two Sessions, like all of the CCP's political meetings, are highly choreographed and planned to the tiniest detail – but unexpected things still happen. At the 2022 Party Congress Peng Lifa staged a brave protest at Sitong Bridge in Beijing. Peng was detained, his location still unknown, and authorities now closely guard Beijing bridges during political events to ensure it won't be repeated.
At that same 2022 event, foreign press captured the extraordinary moment that former president Hu Jintao was physically removed from his seat next to Xi and shuffled out of the room.
The sessions are attended by a huge crowd of foreign media, many of them flying in for the meeting and a rare chance to interact with CCP officials in person. In 2024, the annual premier's press conference was abruptly cancelled without explanation, closing down one of the already limited forums for transparency.
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The Herald Scotland
6 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Will the US dodge a recession? Economist weighs in on Trump policies
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But those positive catalysts are expected to be more than offset by the tariffs, a historic immigration crackdown, layoffs of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and big cuts to social services programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, Begley said. During Trump's presidential race against former Vice President Kamala Harris last year, Moody's, among other research firms, predicted Trump's economic blueprint would spark a recession by mid-2025. Moody's has updated its forecast in part because the contours of his plan recently have become more clearly defined, Begley said. "We have a better view where things are going," he said. What tariffs has Trump imposed? For example, high double-digit tariffs are in place for steel and aluminum, foreign cars and Chinese imports. And the White House has reached deals with trading partners such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the UK that set tariffs at 10% to 20%. Trump's deportations and constraints on Southern border crossings are well under way. And his huge budget bill, which he signed into law on July 4, expanded his 2017 tax cuts, beefed up military and border security outlays, and slashed some entitlement spending. How is the economy doing under Trump? All told, Moody's projects Trump's policies will reduce economic growth by an average 0.4 percentage points annually - nearly half a point - during his term. That would leave the economy expanding an average 1.7% annually over the four years, with growth bottoming at 1.4% next year and peaking at 2.2% in 2028. The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.2% the first half of 2025. It's projected to grow at slightly less than a 1% pace in the second half, according to economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators. By contrast, the economy averaged 2.3% growth the decade after the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and 3.5% during former president Joe Biden's term. The latter, however, included unusually strong gains as the nation emerged from the pandemic recession. In 2024, Biden's last year in office, the economy grew a healthy 2.8%. Growth had been expected to downshift no matter who won the 2024 election as a post-COVID-19 surge in consumer demand petered out, Americans depleted government pandemic aid and other government stimulus measures faded. But by the end of Trump's term in 2028, the economy will be 1.3% smaller than if his policies had not been enacted, Begley wrote in a report. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to peak at 4.7% in 2027 before falling to 4.4% by the time Trump leaves office. Without his policies, unemployment would broadly hold steady at about 4% and there would be about 885,000 additional jobs, Moody's said. Is inflation ever going to go down? Trump's policies similarly are poised to push up inflation by an average of nearly half a percentage point a year. 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The benefits of tax cuts and increased defense and border spending would outweigh the toll taken by the immigration crackdown, federal layoffs and cutbacks to Medicaid and food stamps, he said. What are the negative effects of deportations? Another big hit comes from the deportations. Like the tariffs, the immigration crackdown is projected to both curtail growth and boost inflation. A reduced supply of workers in industries such as construction, agriculture and hospitality is expected to drive up wages and prices. And a smaller population of immigrants means less consumer spending. Here's why Moody's forecast of the effects of Trump's policies is less dire than it was before he took office: Less retaliation from tariffs Although Trump's tariffs are higher than anticipated, Moody's expected more significant retaliation from foreign countries that would batter U.S. manufacturers' exports. At least so far, those nations have taken a more restrained approach. Fewer deportations than expected Moody's figured the Trump administration would seek to deport about 1 million immigrants who lack permanent legal status each year. But Begley said that has proven logistically challenging. Goldman Sachs estimates monthly deportations have averaged an annualized pace of about 600,000. Tax cuts give middle-class Americans more spending money Although Trump vowed during his campaign to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, Moody's didn't necessarily expect him to follow through. The budget bill, however, scraps taxes on tips up to $25,000 a year and over time up to $12,500.
Scottish Sun
a day ago
- Scottish Sun
Meet China's shady ‘Sea Dragons' – the elite unit training for Taiwan invasion with underwater pistols & pirate battles
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) THIS secretive Chinese special forces unit could play a key role in dictator Xi Jinping's plot to seize Taiwan. Ever since Vladimir Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine, the world has held its breath to see if Beijing will follow suit and annex its neighbour. 13 China's elite 7th Marine Bridge is kept at "high readiness" for conflict Credit: Alamy 13 They are often seen as China's answer to the elite US Navy Seals Credit: Alamy 13 The marines are armed with specialist weapons that can work underwater Credit: US Department of Defense 13 Chinese marines participate in a steeplechase competition in Qingdao Credit: Alamy 13 Unlike the Russian army, China's military suffers from a chronic lack of recent battlefield experience. Beijing's troops haven't seen active combat in a full scale war since the 1970s, when China fought briefly against Vietnam. But China's elite 7th Marine Brigade - also known as the Sea Dragons - is kept at "high readiness" for conflict, and has experience in operations around the world. This secretive unit has been deployed in China's counter-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden - and played a key role in evacuating Chinese nationals from the war in Yemen. They are often seen as China's answer to the elite US Navy Seals. As Beijing's sabre-rattling across the Taiwan Strait grows louder, The Sun has spoken to leading military experts to find out how this unit could play a devastating role in such a war. Analyst Alexis Turek of the Coalition Defense of Taiwan Project said: "Any sort of amphibious operation in Taiwan is incredibly difficult. "It's going to be significantly more difficult than the Normandy invasion [in 1944]. "Part of that is because China is very unprepared and they haven't done this before." She explained that one Chinese dictator Xi Jinping's main military goals has been expanding the power of the Chinese Navy to prime Beijing's war-readiness. Huge fleet of terrifying new Chinese 'tank boats' takes to water as Taiwan launches huge war drills Over the past decade, China has vastly expanded its naval capabilities, including building two massive home-grown aircraft carriers. "It's certainly true that they're not quite at the level of the US," Turek added. "There's a difference between having very powerful forces, and knowing how to conduct these sorts of operations." But while the rest of the Chinese military remains untested in battle, the Sea Dragons' experience and training could make them a force to be reckoned with. Alison O'Neil, a China researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, told The Sun: "This brigade is specifically trained for urban warfare and urban counter-terrorism. The 7th Brigade is kept at high readiness." Much of their experience comes from battling pirates in the Gulf of Aden, where the Sea Dragons have cut their teeth in amphibious operations. Armed with specialist assault rifles and pistols that work underwater, they are especially adept at recon and sabotage operations. 13 Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed to bring Taiwan under Beijing's control Credit: Alamy 13 Chinese marines take part in a joint naval drill in Zhanjiang Credit: Alamy 13 Chinese and Russian marines take part in a joint naval drill Credit: Alamy 13 Chinese marines during exercises Credit: US Department of Defense "They have been sent to do a lot of these overseas power projection efforts, so that includes anti-piracy and counter-terrorism," Turek added. Taiwan's geography as a highly mountainous island with densely populated cities makes planning an invasion fraught with difficulty for China. One of the first tasks for China would be to assess Taiwan's coastline for potential landing spots. And the Sea Dragons' expertise in naval reconnaissance would put them right at the forefront. "They would probably be the ones identifying where the targets are and where they should strike," Turek said. "We would also see them probably engaging in some of their own targeted strikes." The Sea Dragons would also likely play a key role in psychological warfare to try and force Taiwan into submission, Turek said. This could see them sabotage ports, major airports and other vital infrastructure in a brutal campaign to terrorise the island's population. The unit has even been seen wielding terrifying hidden drones that are disguised to look like birds, The War Zone previously reported. Turek said attacks would be intended to convince Taiwan "that the Taiwanese military is not up to snuff and the Taiwanese government is not being effective." While not a member state of the United Nations, Taiwan is a functionally independent country with its own government, currency and military. But China sees the island as a breakaway province that should be under Beijing's control, and President Xi Jinping has long refused to rule out the use of force to achieve this. Many US officials believe that Xi wants China's military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027. However, Dr Turek added that Beijing would struggle to mount a surprise attack given the scale of machinery and equipment that would need to be deployed. "China has not really experienced any sort of urban warfare before," she said. "A lot of this is going to be pretty unseen territory." Dr Turek added: "It will likely be a pretty devastating conflict. It is likely to be a protracted war." However, China could instead opt to blockade Taiwan in an attempt to throttle it into submission - instead of sending troops in to fight and die. Either a blockade or an invasion would likely have devastating impacts on the global economy, as the Taiwan Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes for international trade. Taiwan is also a key producer of semicondutors - which are crucial component in the manufacturing of electronics around the world. But Dr Turek cautioned that an invasion "is always on the table". "We've certainly seen them preparing for it. We have seen them conduct exercises that resemble blockades." However, she added: "Xi Jinping and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) right now are pretty risk averse. "They are not going to invade unless they think they will be successful." Why is Taiwan under threat of Chinese invasion? TAIWAN is under threat of a Chinese invasion as a result of its political and historical ties to China and its strategic importance After the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the defeated Nationalist government (Kuomintang) fled to Taiwan while the Communists took control of mainland China Since then, Taiwan has evolved into a self-governed democracy But the People's Republic of China (PRC) sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland Taiwan has never formally declared independence, partly to avoid provoking a military response from China Chinese President Xi Jinping has tied 'national rejuvenation' to reunifying Taiwan with the mainland Most countries, including the US, do not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent nation, but they do support Taiwan militarily and economically China views foreign support of Taiwan, especially arms sales and diplomatic visits, as provocations Taiwan is strategically important as it sits in a vital geopolitical position in the Asia-Pacific This makes its location a gateway to the South China Sea 13 Armoured amphibious units from China have been spotted practising naval formation in the latest threats to Taiwan 13 Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te walks near Taiwanese naval officers Credit: Getty 13 Marine corps formation of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) during a military parade Credit: Rex Features
Reuters
a day ago
- Reuters
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to visit India from Monday, China's foreign ministry says
BEIJING, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi will visit India from Monday to Wednesday, China's foreign ministry said in a statement on Saturday, for talks about a disputed border in the Himalayas. This is only the second such meeting since a deadly clash in 2020 between Indian and Chinese troops at the border. Relations between the two Asian giants have been thawing since an agreement last October on patrolling their Himalayan border, easing a five-year standoff that had hurt trade, investment and air travel. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month when he travels to China - his first visit in seven years - to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional security bloc.
