Thunder vs. Pacers odds, predictions: NBA Finals Game 4 player props, picks, best bets
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For the first time in these NBA Finals, there is just one off day between games.
In my eyes, that is a difference-maker and has to play a role in the Game 4 analysis.
Oddsmakers formulate betting lines by using statistics from the entire season. Intelligent bettors swear by the importance of a large sample size, but I think the playoffs are a different animal and should be treated as such. That means, in my eyes, the regular-season data should be viewed with a grain of salt.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a six-point favorite at the Indiana Pacers on Friday, even though they are 0-8 Against The Spread (ATS) on the road this postseason.
Plus, despite being favored in all eight games, they only won half of them.
I lean to Indy catching the points, but my favorite play involves a proposition bet surrounding Chet Holmgren, largely because of the quick turnaround between games.
The 7-foot-1 Holmgren is listed at just 208 pounds and looks even thinner. His slight frame has inhibited his production through this postseason.
Chet Holmgren during Game 3.
AP
Prior to grabbing 10 rebounds in Game 3, his rebounds prop cashed the Under in seven straight games.
A few factors caused the outlier double-digit rebounding game that will not repeat for Friday's game.
After logging 35 minutes, which was his highest since the second round, Holmgren was visibly fatigued during the fourth quarter. In fact, he needed to sub out after logging just 2:40 and returned one minute later. Even with that quick rest, he was pushed around and had his shot blocked three times.
Betting on the NBA?
I highly doubt OKC coach Mark Daigneault will increase Holmgren's minutes again, thus you can figure him to return to his usual allotment of around 27 minutes.
I believe we will see more playing time for center Isaiah Hartenstein, and that will inhibit Holmgren's production on the glass.
I have a 50-40-1 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Holmgren Under 8.5 rebounds (-105, BetMGM) in Game 4.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He's also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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USA Today
12 minutes ago
- USA Today
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shows why he's the MVP, saves Thunder in NBA Finals Game 4
Hear this story INDIANAPOLIS – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looked exhausted. Indiana's T.J. McConnell drove baseline right past Gilgeous-Alexander for an easy layup in the first half. 'He really didn't have it going a lot of the night,' Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault said. 'He was laboring. We had a hard time shaking him free.' In the first half, he had 12 quiet points and didn't attempt a free throw. Even through three quarters, Gilgeous-Alexander had not had his typical impact on the game and a 3-1 series lead for the Pacers looked like a done deal. But the Oklahoma City Thunder star is the 2024-25 NBA MVP. And MVPs deliver. That's what he did in the fourth quarter as the Thunder defeated the Pacers 111-104 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals Friday, June 13, evening the series at 2-2. Gilgeous-Alexander delivered and rescued the Thunder's championship aspirations. He scored 15 of his 35 points in the fourth and those were 15 of Oklahoma City's last 16 points in the final 4:38. 'I didn't know that, but that's crazy. That's impressive,' Thunder center-forward Chet Holmgren said. 'We've seen it before from him. We know that that's the type of player he is. But it's still impressive. That's very impressive. I'm sure that's going to be a very small category of players that he's going to put himself in or has put himself in with a finish to the game like that.' Holmgren's hunch was correct. Gilgeous-Alexander's 15 points are the most by a player in the last five minutes of a Finals game since 1971. Here are those 15 points: His basket at 4:38 tied the score 97-97; his two free throws cut a four-point deficit to 101-99; a 3-pointer trimmed the Pacers' lead to 103-102; a 15-foot jump shot with 2:23 left gave the Thunder a 104-103 lead, their first since late in the second quarter; and he made six free throws in the final 44 seconds. 'I knew what it would have looked like if we lost tonight,' Gilgeous-Alexander said. 'I didn't want to go out not swinging. I didn't want to go out not doing everything I could do in my power, in my control to try to win the game. 'The guys deserve that much from me. The coaching staff deserves that much from me. I just tried to be aggressive, but also let the game come to me, not try to force anything too crazy. I guess it paid off.' Oddly, he didn't have an assist. But this has been a series of anomalies. Through three mediocre quarters for him, he didn't show frustration. 'Same demeanor as always,' Daigneault said. 'You really wouldn't know whether he's up three, down three, up 30, down 30, eating dinner on a Wednesday. He's pretty much the same guy. … He's got a great temperament. He's always been like that as long as he's been here." Said Thunder reserve guard Alex Caruso: 'No matter what's going on, you look at him and he's the same. Underneath that stoic personality or look on the court is a deep, deep-rooted competitiveness. That is sprinkled throughout the whole team.' Caruso had 20 points. Holmgren had 14 points and 15 rebounds. Jalen Williams had 27 points, 16 in the first half when Gilgeous-Alexander struggled against Indiana's aggressive defenders. Those four combined for 96 of the Thunder's points. They don't win if Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't find his offense. Gilgeous-Alexander said he tries to focus on the competition and not let circumstances or nerves get to him. In this Finals, he's averaging 32.8 points and shooting 48.4% from the field, 35.3% on 3-pointers and 91.7% on free throws, and he is the seventh player in NBA history to score 30 or more points in at least 14 playoff games in a single postseason. 'I just try to get lost in competing, lost in trying to figure out what I can do to help this basketball team win on any given possession,' he said. 'Yeah, that's what I try to get wrapped up in. That's what I try to completely focus on. Now, it's a little bit tough at times given the situation and what's at stake." Gilgeous-Alexander fought through the mental and physical fatigue and delivered a performance befitting of an MVP.
Indianapolis Star
19 minutes ago
- Indianapolis Star
Luguentz Dort discusses the Thunder's win over the Pacers in Game 4.
Luguentz Dort had six points in the Thunder's 111-104 comeback win over the Pacers in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Indianapolis Star
19 minutes ago
- Indianapolis Star
Tyrese Haliburton discusses the Pacers' Game 4 loss to the Thunder
Tyrese Haliburton had 18 points and seven assists but the Pacers lost 111-104 to the Thunder in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
