With Trump Back, Japan Must Expand Foreign Policy

Yomiuri Shimbun

5 days ago

Four months into his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has stunned both the American people and the wider world by his administration's rapid-fire actions, which include forcefully deporting immigrants and enacting major reforms of the federal government via the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency. On the foreign policy front, he has delivered a shock by effectively abolishing the U.S. Agency for International Development, as well as by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on global warming and the World Health Organization.
At the White House, Trump also had a spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sending chills down the spines of many people around the world. There were fears that the Trump administration might try to push Ukraine to capitulate to Russia, in accordance with Moscow's wishes.
Then, in early April, Trump announced plans to impose 'reciprocal tariffs' on almost every country and region. He set off a global panic when he added that Washington would impose additional tariffs on about 60 countries and regions with which the United States has large trade deficits.
The world is being swayed by the superpower that is the United States and is struggling with how to respond to the Trump administration. This is especially true for Japan — the United States is its one and only ally and its largest target for investment abroad. It is only natural for Japan to view its relationship with the United States as the most important.
However, there are more countries in the world than just the United States. Japan is now faced with the question of how to develop a comprehensive and proactive foreign policy that takes into account the entire world while maintaining appropriate relations with the United States.
Actually, Japan already has the answer in its vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). While focus has recently shifted away somewhat from this concept toward immediate Japan-U.S. relations, this is a vision that not only can endure but could prove vital during the Trump era.
Though the world economy is showing signs of slowing, there are economies that have managed to sustain high growth rates and display clear signs of dynamism in their economic development. These are the coastal regions along two oceans, from the Western Pacific to Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East and over to Africa, that is, the Indo-Pacific. Japan's future economic growth depends on how closely it will connect with this vast area.
China is increasing its military presence in this region, including by enhancing its military strength in the Taiwan Strait. Peace in the Indo-Pacific is essential for Japan's security and economic prosperity, as well as for the development of the global economy.
Buy-in from major players
The vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific has been backed by major players in the region, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Australia and India. The European Union and the United Kingdom, too, share the view that the Indo-Pacific is important. In a world where U.S. actions are increasing uncertainty, this vision of FOIP has become a good insurance policy for many countries.
For its part, China also views the Indo-Pacific as important, especially for its Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to create a massive economic bloc. However, China's loans for infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific are now on the decline. By contrast, Japan's assistance is expanding in scale, and aid projects have been completed in quick succession. So, Japan's focus on a Free and Open Indo-Pacific has had real world results.
Japan regards its relations with Africa and Pacific island nations as an essential part of its Indo-Pacific vision.
Since 1993, Japan, the United Nations and the World Bank have co-hosted the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), with the ninth summit set to be held in August in Yokohama. Through the TICAD process, Japan has extended infrastructure support to help address Africa's development challenges as well as innovative technical support in various fields, including agriculture, education and health. In recent years, Japanese companies have become increasingly willing to invest in Africa.
As for Pacific island nations, Japan has hosted the Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) since 1997. The 10th PALM summit was held in Tokyo in July 2024. Japan's detail-oriented support tailored to the challenges of each partner country has earned a high level of trust.
Expanding aid
Now that the Trump administration has terminated most of the USAID programs, Africa and Pacific island nations are hoping for more aid from Japan. Unlike USAID, Japan's development approach is not based on large-scale grants in aid. It is unrealistic for Japan to take over U.S. financial assistance. Still, Japan is capable of expanding its effective support.
Of course, if we are considering a comprehensive strategy for Japan abroad, we should look beyond the Indo-Pacific. In my opinion, Japan will be able to make its strategy more comprehensive by strengthening its foreign policy toward Europe, inland Asia and Central and South America.
Relations with Europe will become increasingly important. Cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is essential for security in the Indo-Pacific region. To that end, it is necessary to demonstrate Japan's willingness to cooperate toward the future reconstruction and security of Ukraine.
The EU's member countries and the United Kingdom share the same perspective with Japan on global challenges such as global warming. Japan should join hands with Europe to provide leadership on climate change, while keeping in mind that the Trump administration is extremely passive on this issue.
Turning to inland Asia, it is clear that Japan's relations with Mongolia and Central Asian countries are important. Located between Russia and China, these countries tend to be strongly influenced by their goliath neighbors, but they also harbor a strong desire to improve ties with other major powers.
For Mongolia and Uzbekistan, Japan is the largest provider of official development assistance (ODA), and both countries value their relationship with Japan.
In August 2024, then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had to cancel a planned trip to Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan after the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its first Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information advisory for a megaquake. Another tour of inland Asia by the prime minister should be arranged as soon as possible.
And we should not forget Japan's relations with Central and South America. In March, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited Japan as a state guest. Japan's ODA has been well received in the region, having supported soybean production in Brazil and salmon ranching in Chile. There is also room for cooperation via multilateral diplomacy, given that many countries in the region share democratic values with Japan and are home to people of Japanese descent.
Taking a broad view in this way, it becomes clear that Japan should pursue proactive, not reactive, diplomacy based on what I call a 'FOIP+++' vision extending its arms toward Europe, inland Asia and Central and South America. Proactive diplomacy could offer a better way to deal with the Trump administration.
Akihiko Tanaka
Tanaka is president of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), a post he took up in April 2022 for the second time after his first stint from 2012 to 2015. He also served as vice president of the University of Tokyo from 2009 to 2012. He was president of the Tokyo-based National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) from 2017 to March 2024.
The original article in Japanese appeared in the May 25 of The Yomiuri Shimbun.