John Curtice: SNP majority in 2026 ‘extremely unlikely'

The Herald Scotland

4 days ago

"What is [[John Swinney]] doing? He is saying to people: if you want independence, vote [[SNP]]. Do not vote for Alba, do not vote for the Greens."
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The First Minister's plan has proved controversial in the party, with rebels set to attempt to amend it at conference in October.
One change that has the backing of 43 branches is to make a majority of list votes for pro-independence parties in 2026 a mandate for independence negotiations with the UK Government.
"[[John Swinney]] does not want there to be a fragmented list vote," Prof Curtice told the audience in Edinburgh's Summerhall.
"He wants people to vote for the SNP. The challenge facing the SNP — the thing that has not changed in Scottish politics despite the turbulence of the last two and a half years — is support for independence. We are still around 50/50 on the independence question.
"Although you hear a lot of talk of people not being concerned about independence anymore, just tell that to most unionist voters. Most unionist voters are deeply concerned about independence.
"Very few people now are willing to vote for the SNP if they are opposed to independence. That is in complete contrast to the position in 2011."
Professor Sir John Curtice at The Herald's Unspun Live (Image: Colin Mearns/NQ) Then, he said, around 40% of people who supported devolution but not independence voted for the SNP.
But now the party was not picking up any new No voters and was only winning around three-fifths of independence supporters.
Even if the SNP were to win a majority of seats, the academic said it was unlikely the UK Government would agree to a referendum.
Last week's comments from the First Minister marked a change in strategy. Previously, the party said a "democratic majority" of pro-independence MSPs after the 2026 election should pave the way to a new vote.
Mr Swinney said: "The necessity of independence is absolutely paramount and we have got to make that case in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections.
"But there is a logjam and we have got to break that logjam.
"We demonstrated how we break the logjam in the past, by electing a majority of SNP MSPs in 2011, and that led to an independence referendum in 2014."
He invited supporters of independence to back his party in the constituency vote and to "demand independence" in the regional vote.
Asked about how popular the First Minister is, Prof Curtice said Mr Swinney numbers had "been kind of steady since he became First Minister."
"He is not as popular now as he was when he was Deputy First Minister," he added. "In an era of fragmented politics, that is still good enough to make him the least unpopular politician in Scotland."
He added: "Anas Sarwar is still suffering from the shadow of Sir Keir Starmer. Kemi Badenoch — who is she? Nigel Farage is very strong and popular among a section of Scottish and British society."
He said around 40% of Leave voters in Scotland were set to vote for Reform next year.
Asked for predictions for next year's election, Prof Curtice said he thought it would be "child's play" for Reform to win at least 10 seats.
Prof Curtice and Kevin McKenna and the Herald's Hannah Brown in conversation (Image: Colin Mearns/NQ)
"I think Kemi Badenoch is becoming more effective, but it is very much a work in progress. The problem the Tories face is that Reform are not just taking voters, they are taking donors, they are taking people.
"It is very difficult to see any outcome other than the SNP still providing government. What remains highly uncertain is how strong it will be. It could be as low as 45 seats. I think the maximum at the moment is 55 seats.
"But 55 seats — you have only got to find one party to make a deal. With 45 you have got to find two, and that becomes much more difficult.
"I think at the moment it is a race between Reform and Labour over who comes second, and unless the popularity of the Labour government improves, Labour may find themselves in much the same position as they are at the moment."
"The lesson of the last Westminster parliament is not to presume that the outcome of the last election is going to determine what happens at the next one," he added.
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Prof Curtice was also asked about Kate Forbes's decision to stand down at the next election. He described the outgoing Deputy First Minister as "one of the most talented politicians within the current parliament".
"Some of us are old enough to remember those promises 25 years ago of a family-friendly parliament," he added.
"She is not the only person who has found it difficult to combine parenthood with being an MSP. To that extent, I think the Parliament should reflect back on whether or not it is going to make it possible for people with young children, particularly those in rural constituencies, to be MSPs."