Trump and Putin's Arctic Chess Game Is About Far More Than Ukraine

Newsweek

8 hours ago

Based on factual reporting, incorporates the expertise of the journalist and may offer interpretations and conclusions.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
As President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart prepare to hold what has all the makings of a historic summit in the far north frontier that nearly connects their two nations, Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II is just one of the issues that will come to define what the U.S. leader described as a "chess game."
The two men's encounter in the Arctic will take place at the nexus of historic, strategic and geopolitical trends that define one of Earth's most contested regions—a source of both tension and, potentially, new cooperation between Washington and Moscow.
Republican Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who will soon meet Trump ahead of the high-stakes summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, said the meeting has the potential to not only be "great for Alaska," but "if some just peace can come out of these discussions, that would be great for the world."
"With regard to a better relationship with Russia, obviously a better relationship means that the rhetoric has ratcheted down," Dunleavy told Newsweek on the eve of the summit. "We can get back to cooperating on the Arctic through the Arctic Council and other groups that look at the future, what the Arctic is going to look like in terms of its politics, its resources, etc."
"Also, they're two and a half miles away from us. They're very close to us," he added. "So anytime that you can have decent relationships with a neighbor that close bodes well for everyone."
Left to right, U.S. President Donald Trump, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy and Russian President Vladimir Putin are seen in this Newsweek illustration.
Left to right, U.S. President Donald Trump, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy and Russian President Vladimir Putin are seen in this Newsweek illustration.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Associated Press/Canva/Getty
History in the Making
When Putin arrives in Alaska, he will become the first Russian leader to ever set foot in the territory once held by the Russian Empire more than 150 years ago. Still today, the state is home to a small community of ethnic Russians and a sizable community of Indigenous people who trace their history across the Bering Strait.
The U.S. purchase of Alaska—for the modern equivalent of around $129 million—came at a critical time for both nations.
Czar Alexander II sought to bolster his economy by selling off indefensible territory following the devastating Crimean War fought against a great power alliance that included France, the United Kingdom and Ottoman Empire. U.S. President Andrew Johnson was dealing with the costly and politically contentious era of post-Civil War Reconstruction, leaving Secretary of State William H. Seward to pioneer the acquisition.
The deal drew criticism at the time, widely ridiculed as "Seward's Folly." His vision, however, would be justified over time, first by the discovery of gold, then oil and finally, the strategic position that Alaska would ultimately hold as technological advancement globalized conflicts and allowed greater access to the once inaccessible waters of the Arctic.
Having been the site of Japan's only North American invasion during World War II—a conflict in which Washington and Moscow banded together against common foes—and later a crucial front line in the Cold War between the U.S. and Soviet Union, Alaska awaits both Trump and Putin at a new crossroads in history.
"It is undeniable that this meeting is historic," Mike Sfraga, who served as the first U.S. ambassador-at-large to the Arctic, told Newsweek.
"Since the United States purchased what is now the state of Alaska from Russia in 1867," Sfraga said, "we have navigated nuanced and dramatic swings in our relationship, from allies during World War II, to intense adversaries during the Cold War, to cautious partners, to competitors once again—but today we are in a far more complicated geopolitical landscape."
"If a fair and enduring peace in Ukraine can be achieved," he added, "better U.S.-Russian relations may enable cooperation among all Arctic nations so together they can address the pressing challenges and opportunities present throughout the region."
Sfraga, who serves as interim chancellor of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said that his institution "is well positioned to participate and perhaps lead in some of these efforts when the time and conditions are right."
The entrance to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, is pictured on August 13, ahead of the August 15 meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The entrance to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, is pictured on August 13, ahead of the August 15 meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
DREW ANGERER/AFP/Getty Images
A New Great Game
Just days before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Sfraga, then-President Joe Biden's nominee to chair the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, expressed his concern to Newsweek over the potential loss of critical U.S.-Russia cooperation in the Arctic.
Three and a half years later, he warns that "the war on Ukraine and its impacts throughout Europe and the globe demand the world's attention and a commitment to ensure territorial integrity, the rule of law, and the international rules-based system," and that "the Arctic region is not divorced from these geopolitical realities."
In fact, Sfraga argued that "we already see the growing importance of the Arctic playing out in the interests, aspirations, activities, and conflicting worldviews of the world's great powers, the United States, Russia, and China."
"Of the three, two are Arctic nations with Russia and China cooperating in the region at a concerning pace and increasing levels of complexity," he said. "So, it is inevitable that relations between the United States and Russia will impact the broader geopolitical landscape, and our shared Arctic will be an important part of this reality."
Trump's recognition of the strategic importance of this region is evidenced by his stated desire to purchase an even larger stretch of Arctic real estate than Alaska, already by far the largest U.S. state.
The U.S. leader's interest in Greenland has drawn a widespread mix of mockery—not unlike the purchase of Alaska at the time—and concern, including from NATO ally Denmark, which oversees the world's largest island as an autonomous territory.
With Denmark uninterested in selling one of the last vestiges of its former empire, Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out the use of military force to acquire Greenland.
"It could happen," Trump told NBC in May. "Something could happen with Greenland. I'll be honest, we need that for national and international security."
Less shocked by such rhetoric is Putin, who earlier said during an International Arctic Forum meeting in March that "it's obvious that the United States will continue to systematically advance its geostrategic, military-political and economic interests in the Arctic."
The Russian leader who has already opted for military action to seize claimed territories in Ukraine in what he portrays as a defense against NATO expansion, has long viewed Arctic expansion as a leading national objective.
As Troy Bouffard, director of the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Center for Arctic Security and Resilience, pointed out, "one of Moscow's top five national priorities (not just Arctic) is development, promotion, and use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for commercial maritime purposes."
"Russia has invested a huge amount of time, money, and effort in this strategic and economic endeavor," Bouffard told Newsweek. "By Russian Federal law, the NSR extends from the Kara Strait and top of Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait."
A map created December 31, 2008, shows the Arctic region, along with the Northwest Passage, Northeast Passage and Northern Sea Route.
A map created December 31, 2008, shows the Arctic region, along with the Northwest Passage, Northeast Passage and Northern Sea Route.
Susie Harder/Arctic Program/U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Risks and Opportunities
When it comes to the Pacific stretch of the Arctic, the potential for U.S.-Russia competition to go awry is obvious.
This year alone, U.S. and Canadian fighters operating from the same base at which Trump and Putin will meet Friday have thrice scrambled to intercept Russian fighters and bombers entering Alaska's Air Defense Identification Zone. Last year, a joint Chinese-Russian patrol was intercepted by North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) jets for the first time.
Just earlier this week, Moscow and Beijing conducted a joint naval patrol in the northern Asia-Pacific, arriving in the port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, on the eastern coast of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.
"All Arctic nations are acutely aware of how problems are invariably magnified in risk and negative impact because of the nature of the region," Bouffard said. "We all know it takes significantly more work to prevent and be prepared to deal with issues, which is extremely difficult to achieve with those that we are even aware of and have some level of control."
On the other hand, he said, "the value of improved relations in the Arctic is something we know strongly, especially with those of us who have experience with it."
And while both Trump and Putin are fond of military deployments as a means of signaling, Bouffard also pointed out that any actual instability in the Arctic runs counter to Moscow's primary economic goals in the region, as "regional stability is critical" for commercial interests and "effective management of the Bering region in all ways is critical to ensuring that Southeast Asia and other shipping interests feel confident about using the NSR as a shipping route to Europe."
"Although some defense and deterrence-related competition will continue in the maritime and air domains, it'll likely remain not too alarming," Bouffard said. "This will drive Russian behavior and decisions more than anything else, short of something not foreseeable or controllable."
Thus, it paves the way for a seemingly unlikely domain for cooperation, particularly, as Bouffard noted, that "the most important driving factor for President Putin regarding this meeting is focused on how to repair his relationship with President Trump."
Breaking the Ice
Senior Russian officials, including Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov and presidential investment and economic cooperation envoy Kirill Dmitriev, have already identified the Arctic as an agenda item for Putin's first meeting with Trump in six years.
Pavel Devyatkin, senior associate and leadership group member at The Arctic Institute, told Newsweek that "the Arctic is a significant region for Russia as it is critical to Russia's economic outlook."
"U.S.-Russia Arctic cooperation is at a severe low since the 2022 pause of the Arctic Council and White House termination of science and technology cooperation with Russia," Devyatkin said. "However, there are new opportunities for cooperation as American and Russian policymakers have indicated an interest in restoring Arctic economic cooperation, especially joint deals in Arctic oil, gas and natural resources."
Trump, while emphasizing his focus on settling the Russia-Ukraine war, has not ruled out reports that he was considering allowing Moscow access to Alaska's wealth of rare earth minerals as part of a broader deal.
Such an agreement would build upon a history of the Arctic marking an uncommon region for cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, whose relationship has been predominantly defined by tensions.
"Past examples of U.S.-Russia Arctic cooperation have many lessons for today's situation: cooperation in the region can lead to trust building and spill over into other areas of cooperation," Devyatkin said. "In terms of real opportunities, there are complementary capabilities in Arctic natural resources, where Russian icebreaker vessels can be used with U.S. satellite technology to gain access to hard to reach resources and possibly open new routes for shipping."
"The Arctic is a special region because of such complementarity and the geographic closeness of the U.S. and Russia," he added. "There is definitely room for U.S.-Russia cooperation in the Arctic. Competition is not an imperative."
One example, recently shared with Newsweek by Andreas Østhagen, research director of Arctic and Ocean Politics at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute, could be that "Russia perhaps could offer developing the Northern Sea route into a viable commercial traffic lane that's a Russian project, which the U.S. plays a part in, but is not the primary driver of."
However it should manifest, many Arctic specialists hope for a breakthrough that could rekindle the kind of crucial collaboration that has been largely suspended since the war in Ukraine.
"Scientific cooperation and emergency response collaboration between Alaska and Russia and other Arctic nations came to a halt (largely) when Russia invaded Ukraine," Fran Ulmer, associate of the Arctic Initiative at Harvard University's Belford Center and former chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, told Newsweek.
The disruption, she argued, has made it "very difficult" for the Arctic Council to address pressing challenges that commonly affect all eight Arctic nations, and by virtue, the world.
"Issues like the increased rate of permafrost thaw and its damage to infrastructure are of concern to Russia and the U.S.," Ulmer said. "Without the opportunity to compare and share data, engineering advances and mitigating measures, we all fall behind in our ability to adapt."
Now, she said, "many of us are hopeful that the kind of mutually beneficial cooperation that previously existed can be restored to the region when the Ukraine war is over."
A giant screen displays an image of the Arktika nuclear-powered icebreaker and an inscription "The time of Russia", in central Moscow on February 13, 2024.
A giant screen displays an image of the Arktika nuclear-powered icebreaker and an inscription "The time of Russia", in central Moscow on February 13, 2024.
NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP/Getty Images
A Nuclear North Pole
Andrey Gubin, international relations scholar based in Russia's far east city of Vladivostok, also saw potential for U.S.-Russia cooperation on numerous fronts, noting how, "surprisingly, we have rather converged approaches in the Arctic," particularly as it relates to the interpretation of international law and trade routes.
"Notably, Russia is open for negotiations on the Arctic agenda with the United States, especially on ecological issues, scientific researches, law regulations," Gubin told Newsweek. "Economically, we are not competing here, so the capacity for the practical cooperation beyond ideological blinders is still impressive."
Perhaps even more consequentially, as nuclear rhetoric returns to the world stage, Gubin noted the necessity of security dialogue concerning a region where all three segments of both the U.S. and Russia's nuclear triad were designed to travel in the event of an apocalyptic war.
"The region is extremely significant for the strategic deterrence, thus our nations try to minimize any third party's destabilizing involvement here, preferring to maintain military control," Gubin said.
Trump and Putin will also meet at one of the lowest points in the history of arms control between Washington and Moscow, with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty collapsing in 2019, the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM, or BMD) Treaty long gone since 2001 and the critical New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) set to unravel in February without an extension.
"Russia-U.S. START expires in less than a year, the INF and BMD Treaties were not even mentioned to be restored," Gubin said, "but Russia and the United States cannot neglect stability, still being able to erase each other with nukes."
"So, both parties have a lot of common interests, and understand responsibility for the global peace," he added, "even if their approaches initially seem to be elusive or too hardline."