Labour rebels at risk of losing seats over Starmer's benefits cuts

Telegraph

5 hours ago

Dozens of Labour rebel MPs could lose their seats to Sir Keir Starmer's welfare cuts if benefit claimants turn against the Government, analysis shows.
The Prime Minister is facing the biggest rebellion of his premiership over cuts to Universal Credit and personal independence payments (PIP), which are paid to benefit claimants with disabilities.
The plans, estimated to save £5 billion a year, have caused uproar on the Labour benches after the Government published an impact assessment that admitted the reforms could push 50,000 children into poverty.
More than 120 Labour MPs have signed a rebel amendment to abandon the plans, which could force a defeat of the Government if they are supported by the Conservatives.
Telegraph analysis shows that 51 of the rebel MPs have smaller majorities than the number of PIP claimants in their constituency, sparking fears of mass defeats at the next election.
The data suggest that Sir Keir will struggle to convince many of the rebels to back his welfare reforms, because they are concerned about losing their seats.
MPs have long complained that while Labour pushes through its agenda in Parliament with its large majority, constituents confront them at the weekend with concerns about Sir Keir's policies.
Meanwhile, Reform UK has made significant gains in many of the so-called Red Wall marginals, many of which are poorer than the average.
Labour MPs say that constituents elected the party on the promise of protecting the lower-paid and vulnerable, and Sir Keir risks driving those voters away with his reforms.
The MPs on the Telegraph list include Neil Duncan-Jordan, one of the rebel ringleaders, who has a majority of 18, and Tan Dhesi, one of the most high-profile signatories to the amendment.
Others include Ian Lavery and Jon Trickett, veteran rebels who are unlikely to be convinced to back the Government by threats from the Labour whips.
Cat Eccles, the Labour MP for Stourbridge, who is also on the list, said on Wednesday that she would be willing to lose the party whip over the vote.
She told Times Radio that the number of MPs willing to vote against the Government was 'much bigger than we imagine'.
The analysis shows that constituencies with large numbers of PIP claimants are also more likely to be marginal with Reform UK, which has been ahead of Labour in the polls since April.
In seats where there are more PIP claimants than the MP has a majority, the average lead Labour has over Reform is 21 per cent, compared with 36 per cent in other seats.
One MP who is at risk of losing their seat because of the reforms said that Labour rebels were 'responding to issues that have been raised in their own constituencies', adding: 'That's how democracy is meant to work.'
'There is a correlation between where the rebels are and constituencies where Labour is in first [place] and Reform is in second,' the MP told The Telegraph.
'But it's more to do with the fact that there are so many benefit claimants.'
Labour's reforms to PIP will reduce the eligibility criteria for the benefit, which the Office for Budget Responsibility says is likely to lead to one in four current claimants losing their entitlement.
PIP is a separate benefit to Universal Credit and is designed to pay for the additional cost of daily life for disabled people.
But Sir Keir has said the system 'doesn't work as it is' and must be reformed, to reduce a ballooning benefits bill that is set to increase by £18 billion in the next five years.
Ministers have defended the cuts with statistics that show the rising cost of PIP is 'unsustainable' and that 1,000 new people receive it every day.
But cutting benefits is considered a sacred cow by many Labour voters, who have interpreted the plans as a betrayal of the party's principles by Sir Keir.
Prof Sir John Curtice, the veteran pollster, told The Telegraph: 'While support for the increasing welfare benefits have gone down, there is still little support for cutting it.
'Among Labour voters, twice as many think it's too difficult to claim benefits as say it is too easy.
'Whatever the potential impact on those with disability benefits, there's a wider thing that it's not really something that most Labour voters are expecting.'
Luke Tryl, the director of the non-profit More in Common, said that Sir Keir was facing the twin challenges of many seats with low majorities and a broad coalition of different voters who are difficult to please at once.
'It is not an easy coalition to keep happy on tough issues like this, and it is also an unwieldy coalition,' he said.
'It is much easier to keep a broad coalition together in easier times. But the whole mantra of this government, as they have said themselves, is about choices, and making choices means picking parts of the coalition to win or lose.'