What Michigan tells us about 2026

Politico

6 days ago

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun and Bethany Irvine
Happy Friday morning. This is Adam Wren. Tough loss by my Pacers to the Knicks last night in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals. As Indianapolis' own Kurt Vonnegut once wrote, So it goes. Get in touch.
YOUR NEW MUST-LISTEN: Playbook's own Dasha Burns has already established herself as an indispensable read on Donald Trump's Washington. On Sunday, she'll also become an indispensable listen: Her new podcast, 'The Conversation,' debuts. The first guest is a big one: Mehmet Oz, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Exclusive: Ahead of the launch, we have a first listen for Playbook readers from their conversation. Hear why he thinks Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and other Republican critics of the Medicaid changes in the House GOP's reconciliation bill are off base. Listen and watch on YouTube … Subscribe to the podcast … More from POLITICO's Gregory Svirnovskiy
In today's Playbook …
— We get the 2026 readout from Michigan … and have a first look at the speeches Tim Walz and Wes Moore will give in South Carolina, with an eye toward 2028.
— Elon Musk gears up for his final joint presser with Trump today at 1:30 p.m.
— The White House could flesh out Trump's FY 2026 'skinny' budget proposal as soon as today.
DRIVING THE DAY
VIEW FROM A BATTLEGROUND: At 5 p.m., Trump will cap off his week by speaking in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, where he is expected to talk up Japanese-owned Nippon Steel's deal to purchase U.S. Steel — a prospect candidate Trump inveighed against even as President Trump is eager to accept in order to take the win on protecting U.S. jobs in a key swing state.
The backstory: 'Inside the GOP pressure campaign to flip Trump on Nippon Steel,' by POLITICO's Ari Hawkins and Meredith Lee Hill
Speaking of battlegrounds: It's no coincidence that the midterms-obsessed Trump is headed to Pennsylvania. But your Playbook authors spent the week in a different pivotal battleground: Michigan, where the quaintness of Mackinac Island (the fudge shops, the ban on cars, the horse-drawn carriages) belied the fierceness of the politicking unfolding at the annual Mackinac Policy Conference, the bipartisan Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce confab.
And politick they did. In the 2026 cycle, Michigan will elect a new governor (a race with competitive primaries in both parties), a new U.S. senator (ditto) and decide multiple competitive House seats. ('It's going to be Super Bowl year for Michigan politics,' Rep. Bill Huizenga, the west Michigan Republican considering a Senate bid, told us.)
And in light of all of it … we're struck by a few key 2026 takeaways and pieces of hard news from the countless conversations we've had with insiders this week …
THE DEMS' INSIDE FIGHT: Democrats are gearing up for another potentially brutal intraparty fight brewing in their Senate primary. And Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) is privately warning candidates and party officials that there's a real risk it could become a costly 'proxy battle' between AIPAC and the pro-Palestinian 'Uncommitted' movement. 'I want both of them to work to make sure it doesn't,' Dingell told us, ostensibly referring to candidates Rep. Haley Stevens, who many Washington Democrats are backing, and Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive favorite with the backing of Bernie Sanders.
A replay? 'I do think that if AIPAC comes in and goes negative on [El-Sayed's] campaign, they're going to alienate a broad swath of Arab and Muslim voters who already demonstrated in 2024 that they're extremely frustrated with AIPAC coming in and dictating elections for them,' said a person involved in the race.
AIPAC's view: 'The past two election cycles have clearly demonstrated that pro-Israel candidates overwhelmingly prevail over anti-Israel detractors,' Marshall Wittmann, a spokesperson for AIPAC, said in a statement to Playbook. 'A Pro-Israel position is both good policy and good politics.' He did not respond to follow-up questions about whether that candidate was Stevens or how much AIPAC planned to spend in the race.
The current standing: In a public poll released this week by the Detroit Regional Chamber, Stevens leads the primary field at 34 percent, El-Sayed is at 22 percent, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow is around 14 percent, with nearly 30 percent undecided.
VIEW FROM THE MIDDLE: If you want to get a good sense of what on-the-ground politics looks like in the battle for control of the U.S. House, there are few places better to gauge public opinion than Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet's district, which is smack dab in the middle of the partisan voter index — the median congressional district nationally on the midterm map. It's a seat Trump won by 2 points in 2024, while McDonald Rivet carried it by 7.
Washington's view vs. voters' views: McDonald Rivet emphasized to us that even while a lot of the conversation in Washington can be driven by the latest palace intrigue or court battles with the administration, what really matters to voters in seats like hers is much simpler. 'When I'm talking to folks at the grocery store, prices are still incredibly high,' she said, noting that about 80 percent of her district makes under $50,000 a year. 'There is a lot of concern about availability of health care, the cuts to Medicaid. … Most of people in my district hate all politicians — just sort of fed up with the system — which I also think is an indicator of what's happening across the country.'
THE WHITMER ANGLE: For all the grief Gov. Gretchen Whitmer received for her high-profile meetings with Trump, she is not only no worse for wear in her home state, she is polling at her peak. In Michigan, even some of the most stridently anti-Trump voices in the Democratic Party are applauding the end results of how she's handled Trump.
A representative take from our convos: 'In a second Trump presidency, she has navigated how to be a governor effectively,' McMorrow told us. She acknowledges that there would be a political upside nationally to Whitmer aggressively resisting working with Trump. But: 'If she does that, she hurts the residents of Michigan.' Instead, Whitmer's approach has yielded tangible benefits in Michigan — not just politically, but also on policy matters, winning a new mission for Selfridge Air National Guard Base and federal support for the fight against invasive carp, a major environmental issue in the state.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: ALSO IN THE 2028 CONVERSATION: Much further south, ambitious Democrats are turning their eyes — and itineraries — toward South Carolina for tonight's Blue Palmetto Dinner and Rep. Jim Clyburn's World Famous Fish Fry. Two big 2028 Democrats are making the trip: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore. Playbook obtained excerpts from their speeches.
What Walz will say: 'If we're being honest with ourselves, we're in this mess because our party lost its way, too. … Here's the thing: None of us can afford to shy away right now from the hard conversations we need to have. Because we have to come to terms with the fact that the Democratic Party — the party of the working class — lost the working class. Not only that — we lost them to a billionaire … who gives tax cuts to other billionaires. … I hear some version of this all the time on the road: 'I don't know if Trump is right about what he's doing, but he's willing to bust things up and give it a try.' And what about us? Well, Democrats have no shortage of good ideas. But when we get into power, we haven't been able to get stuff done. At least not stuff that people can actually see and feel in their lives.'
What Moore will say: 'I don't come from a family that's used to writing bills or laws. I come from a family that's used to suffering the consequences of them. My North Star isn't the party line. It's the people. And I've been listening to what they have to say, all across Maryland. Democrats and Republicans … Urban and rural … Young and old …They have not just been our inspirations, but our guides. … Now is the time for us to be impatient. Let's not just talk about an alternative. Let's not just study an alternative. Let's deliver an alternative. Right now, Republicans in Congress are slashing budgets and firing federal workers … The people need to believe there's a better way.'
THE MAGA REVOLUTION
WHAT TACOS? Yes, Trump's tariffs were blocked for all of a day, and Elon Musk is leaving (along with James Burnham, Steve Davis and Katie Miller, per ABC) without saving much money. But don't read too much into this week's Trump setbacks. The generational Trump project is very much here to stay, upending the federal government and transforming millions of lives around the world. We may know more at 1:30 p.m., when Trump and Musk are set to hold a press conference. 'This will be his last day, but not really, because he will, always, be with us, helping all the way,' Trump posted on Truth Social.
First in Playbook: Oregon AG Dan Rayfield, who brought the briefly successful case against Trump's tariffs, tells POLITICO's Joe Schatz that he thinks 'the Trump administration is entirely short-sighted' in relying on emergency powers to impose them. The suddenly feverish court fight could be headed to the Supreme Court … but a federal appellate court already temporarily paused the ruling that Trump's tariffs violated the law, per WaPo. That will allow the 'Liberation Day' penalties to snap back into place while judges consider the matter on the merits. Some legal experts think Trump will lose if this gets to the Supreme Court — but the president would also have other avenues to impose tariffs.
Court in the act: Stephen Miller, press secretary Karoline Leavitt and other top Trump officials responded to their initial loss by attacking judges even more than usual, per the NYT. And Trump himself issued a Truth Social post approaching novella length, which not only defended his tariffs, but also engaged in some soul-searching about why even conservative judges have ruled against him. He blamed the advice of 'sleazebag' Leonard Leo and said, 'I am so disappointed in The Federalist Society.' More from POLITICO's Gregory Svirnovskiy and Josh Gerstein
The economic fallout: The flurry of judicial rulings this week may give foreign countries a leg up in their trade talks with the U.S. Filipino and EU officials, for instance, tell POLITICO's Ari Hawkins and colleagues they're likelier to stand their ground now. But the other result of the tariff chaos is prolonged business uncertainty, which could hurt the economy, per POLITICO's Sam Sutton and colleagues. Reuters' Sayantani Ghosh and colleagues tallied the total cost to businesses of Trump's tariffs: $34 billion already.
IN THE DOGE HOUSE: Even without Musk, further severe DOGE-fueled cuts to the federal workforce are still in the offing, especially by political appointees at agencies, POLITICO's Robin Bravender and colleagues detail. The Office of Personnel Management put out new hiring guidance yesterday that notably bars departments from hiring people for their race or gender, Axios' Emily Peck scooped. It also includes new essay questions about the Constitution and executive orders that have already sparked fears about politicizing the nonpartisan civil service, Bloomberg's Gregory Korte reports. And Trump tapped Paul Ingrassia as the new leader of the Office of Special Counsel (more on his background here).
State of play: The State Department rolled out a sweeping reorganization plan — the biggest since the Cold War — including laying off 3,400 staffers and cutting or changing 300 offices, Fox News' Diana Stancy scooped. Notably, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is taking a sledgehammer to human rights work while elevating conservative priorities, POLITICO's Robbie Gramer scooped, and closing the Afghan refugee resettlement office despite U.S. veterans' protests, per Bloomberg.
More big changes: The Labor Department is suspending its Job Corps program, Fox News' Brooke Singman scooped. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) quickly condemned the move.
FROM 30,000 FEET: 'Trump's Flurry of Pardons Signals a Wholesale Effort to Redefine Crime,' by NYT's Glenn Thrush: 'Trump is employing the vast power of his office to redefine criminality to suit his needs — using pardons to inoculate criminals he happens to like, downplaying corruption and fraud as crimes, and seeking to stigmatize political opponents by labeling them criminals.'
BEST OF THE REST
PUTTING SOME MEAT ON THE BONES: The White House may flesh out Trump's fiscal year 2026 'skinny' budget proposal with the full — or at least more — details as soon as today, Roll Call's Paul Krawzak and Aidan Quigley report. House Appropriations subcommittees will start marking numbers up next week, when the long-anticipated rescissions package will also arrive in Congress.
RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: House Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) will speak at the Reagan National Economic Forum at 10 a.m. Eastern, as House Republicans work to get their Senate counterparts on board with the megabill. But Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough still looms — and some controversial provisions could be axed under her budgetary rules, POLITICO's Jordain Carney and colleagues lay out: The 'current policy baseline' accounting gimmick will be an especially big one to watch, while items from Planned Parenthood defunding to limiting judges' contempt powers could be on the chopping block.
How it's playing: Wall Street has freaked out about a foreign investment tax provision that finance types worry will damage an already turbulent economy, FT's Kate Duguid and colleagues report. … A new nonpartisan report finds that concern about the reconciliation bill's rollback of clean-energy tax credits, among other factors, has helped ax or postpone $14 billion in investments this year, per the AP. … Focus groups of older Trump voters show that many of his supporters remain fiercely loyal to him and will brook no dissent from congressional Republicans: They want a rubber stamp, NYT's Annie Karni reports.
MORE ON THE HILL: The House Dem race for Oversight ranking member kicked off with bids yesterday by Reps. Robert Garcia (Calif.), Stephen Lynch (Mass.) and Kweisi Mfume (Md.), POLITICO's Nick Wu and Hailey Fuchs report. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Texas) is eyeing a run too. This could be a generational and ideological contest for Democrats.
WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT: 'Federal Authorities Probe Effort to Impersonate White House Chief of Staff,' by WSJ's Josh Dawsey: 'In recent weeks, senators, governors, top U.S. business executives and other well-known figures have received text messages and phone calls from a person who claimed to be the chief of staff … But the messages weren't from [Susie] Wiles — and the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the White House are trying to figure out who is behind the effort and what the goal is … FBI officials have told the White House they don't believe a foreign nation is involved … Government officials think the impersonator used artificial intelligence to imitate Wiles's voice.'
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The White House said Steve Witkoff's new proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release in the Israel-Hamas war was quickly OKed by Israel. But Axios' Barak Ravid reports that U.S. officials are not so sure about Hamas' reception of it, with some in the militant group wary that Israel will just end the ceasefire. 'Hamas wanted much stronger guarantees from the U.S. that Israel wouldn't walk away again.' The full text of the proposal, via The Times of Israel
Meanwhile: 'Saudi warned Iran to reach nuclear deal with Trump or risk Israeli strike,' by Reuters' Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi
NOTABLE NAME: Harvard's Corporation is adding prominent conservative lawyer Kannon Shanmugam, The Crimson's Grace Yoon reports.
SCHOOL DAZE: 'Behind Trump's long campaign to target Chinese student visas,' by POLITICO's Myah Ward and Jake Traylor: 'The president's aides and allies view the visa revocations as the initial step in clamping down on Chinese influence in the U.S., with [a] White House official suggesting it could lead to a wider exclusion of international students from the country.'
How will it actually play out? 'A massive headache' to review hundreds of thousands of Chinese students' records, one State Department official tells POLITICO's Felicia Schwartz and colleagues. Big questions remain about how the policy will be implemented — and whether it will effectively bar all Chinese students from coming to U.S. colleges.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: New Hampshire Republican Walter McFarlane III met with the NRSC yesterday morning as he explores a possible Senate bid. He ran for the House last year, losing in the primary.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOR PETE'S SAKE: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is heading to Singapore for a significant moment on the world stage as he seeks to reassure the U.S.' Asian allies. His remarks will take place tomorrow in Singapore — or at 8:35 p.m. tonight for D.C. watchers.
TV TONIGHT — PBS' 'Washington Week': Peter Baker, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Stephen Hayes.
SUNDAY SO FAR …
NBC 'Meet the Press': Speaker Mike Johnson … Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). Panel: Lanhee Chen, Jeh Johnson, Jonathan Martin and Kelly O'Donnell.
CNN 'State of the Union': House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Panel: Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Scott Jennings, Jamal Simmons and Shermichael Singleton.
Fox News 'Sunday Morning Futures': DHS Secretary Kristi Noem … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) … Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) … Ed Martin … Brad Gerstner.
NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) … Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) … Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Panel: Amie Parnes, David Drucker, Jessica Taylor and Tia Mitchell.
CBS 'Face the Nation': Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) … FDA Commissioner Marty Makary … Michael Roth.
MSNBC 'The Weekend': Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) … Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.) … James Carville.
TALK OF THE TOWN
Greg Steube is introducing legislation to block federal funding for WMATA until they rebrand as WMAGA and the Trump Train. (He insists this is about serious transit accountability.)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. doesn't drink alcohol, but he took a shot at the White House — of raw milk.
Lester Holt has his last day as anchor of the 'NBC Nightly News' today, as he switches to focus more on 'Dateline.'
Nicolle Wallace is launching a podcast, 'The Best People,' from MSNBC next week. Early interviews will include Jason Bateman and Sarah Jessica Parker.
Mike Tobin of Fox News made it to the summit of Mount Everest, where he did 22 pushups in recognition of veteran/first responder suicide.
IN MEMORIAM — 'Bernie Kerik, former NYPD Commissioner known as 'America's Cop' after 9/11, dead at 69,' by the N.Y. Post's Miranda Devine and colleagues: 'In 2003, following the US invasion of Iraq, then-President George W. Bush named Kerik to head up a provisional police force in the post-war Middle Eastern nation. … Bush nominated Kerik to head the US Department of Homeland Security in 2004, but the ex-commissioner withdrew his nomination while admitting he had employed an illegal immigrant as a nanny … Kerik served four years in federal prison before he was pardoned by Trump.'
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — 'Days after gunshots and death, Capital Jewish Museum reopens with purpose,' by WaPo's Kyle Swenson: 'Beatrice Gurwitz, the museum's executive director, told The Washington Post that reopening the location was not just about getting back to business as usual but also about honoring the magnitude of what happened. … Attendees arriving at the reopening ceremony were greeted by multiple photographs of [Yaron] Lischinsky and [Sarah Lynn] Milgrim.'
OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Herald Group's alliances and coalitions reception last night: Bill Miller, acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood, Steve Moore, Michelle Nyman, Katelyn Bledsoe, Heather Browning, Maria Ghazal, Ben Rajadurai, James Erwin, Karla Jones, Chris Gray, Michi Iljazi, Suhail Khan, Ben Cantrell, Josselin Castillo, Tirzah Duren, Tim Lee, Elizabeth Hicks and Kyle Wingfield.
— SPOTTED at the U.S. Council for International Business' 80th-anniversary reception at Ferrero's D.C. offices last night: Whitney Baird, Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer, Luxembourg Ambassador Nicole Bintner-Bakshian, John Neuffer, Gerald Kunde, Dorothy Attwood, Eric Loeb and Rick Johnston.
— Eileen O'Connor, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Julia Ioffe, Kathy O'Hearn and Yevghenia Albats hosted a party for Jill Dougherty's new book, 'My Russia: What I Saw Inside the Kremlin' ($32.95), on Wednesday night on the top floor of McDermott Will & Emery HQ. SPOTTED: Wolf Blitzer, David Sanger, Alex Marquardt, Kevin Bohn, Edith Chapin, Kelli Arena, David Ensor, Brian Hale, Mary Jordan, Kevin Sullivan, Kate Sullivan, Scott Simon, Daniel Yergin, Angela Stent, John Beyrle, Serge Schmemann, Melanne Verveer and Natasha Lebedeva.
— SPOTTED at FGS Global's NYC spring media party at the Lobster Club in Midtown on Wednesday night: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Jacqueline Corba, Martin Arnold, David Benoit, Dade Hayes, Micah Maidenberg, Lachlan Cartwright, Max Tani, Michael Grynbaum, Jocelyn Noveck, Romaine Bostick, Pippa Stevens, Brooke Masters, Mike Feldman, Winnie Lerner, Paul Holmes, Cat Rakowski, Adam Blickstein and Elan Bird.
TRANSITIONS — Gautam Raghavan⁩ is now a partner in the nonprofit and social impact practice at True Search. He previously was director of presidential personnel in the Biden White House. … Molly Fromm is now VP and general counsel at the Nickles Group. She previously was general counsel and parliamentarian for House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.). … Alyssa Penna is now director of federal policy at United States of Care. She most recently was an analyst at CMS' Office of Legislation. …
… Jenna Sumar and Kevin Lowery are launching a creative studio, Collection Media. Sumar previously was chief official videographer for the Biden White House. Lowery previously was creative director at Weymouth Watson and is a Stacey Abrams alum. … Cambridge Global Advisors has added Patrick Lechleitner, Elaine Duke, Katie Tobin, Ryan Scudder, Paul Thomas, Tim Devine and Morgan Ryan. … Cindy Dyer is now chief program officer at the McCain Institute. She most recently was U.S. ambassador-at-large to monitor and combat trafficking in persons.
WEEKEND WEDDING — Tanner Hishta, an analyst at the Defense Department, and Matthew Bishop, government relations manager at Austal USA, got married this weekend at Pohick Episcopal Church, with a reception at Army Navy Country Club. They met working on Capitol Hill in 2018. Pic … SPOTTED: John Hishta, Noah Yantis, Zach Weidlich, Matt Reed, Emma Cunningham, Mary Collins Howell, Katie Peake, Julia March, Nicholas March, Allison Brown, Scott Mason, Molly Vinesett, Miriam Fry, Jordan Howard and Elizabeth Bentler.
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): J. Miles Coleman at Sabato's Crystal Ball
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NBC's Frank Thorp … Reema Dodin … Holly Page … Miryam Lipper … Thomas Cluderay … NYT's Michelle Cottle and Kirsten Danis … Stratton Kirton … Loren Duggan … Ashe Schow … Lauren Nevin … Nicholas Ballasy … CNN's Eric Levenson … Victoria Buchanan … POLITICO's Maggie Miller, Pratyusha Sankuratri, James Bambara and Nicholas King … Rob Noel … Lisa Stark … Novartis' Nicole Longo … Jeff Freeland … Ashley Bender Spirn … Rusty Pickens … former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) … Chris Gowen … Holland & Knight's Scott Mason, celebrating with a rodeo and Darius Rucker show at the H&K partners meeting in San Antonio … Jenna Lee … Stephen Shapanka … Steve Kramer
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