Morning Bid: Who's afraid of a hot PPI?
Did you really think that the mighty U.S. stock market was going to be stopped in its tracks by a measly PPI print, even if it was a blowout?
Despite the jump in wholesale prices, S&P 500 futures clung to a gain of 0.2% in Asian trading, even as Nasdaq futures slipped for a third consecutive day. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was down 2 basis points at 4.2732%.
One consequence of the hot PPI print is that the market has given up on hopes of a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. But traders are still pricing in a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, compared with a 100% likelihood of a cut yesterday.
In Asia, data from the region's two biggest economies showed Japan's economy running hot last quarter to keep shelves stocked ahead of Donald Trump's tariff deadline, while China indicated renewed signs of slack.
Hong Kong stocks (.HSI), opens new tab fell 1.2% after the release of weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data for July including retail sales and industrial production, while the large-cap CSI 300 (.CSI300), opens new tab gained 0.5% as traders speculated that the data may justify extra stimulus. Markets in India and South Korea are closed for public holidays.
The Nikkei 225 (.N225), opens new tab rebounded 1.2% after snapping a six-day winning streak on Thursday with its biggest one-day selloff since April 11, as Japanese GDP data showed the economy expanding by an annualised 1.0% in the April-June quarter, beating analyst estimates and providing more signals to the Bank of Japan, which next meets on September 19. The dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen to 147.64 .
In commodities markets, Brent crude was down 0.1% at $66.79 per barrel, not far from a two-month low reached on Wednesday, ahead of a meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Friday.
"The first meeting doesn't seem like a major market-moving event - it's more to set up a second meeting, which will likely be more important," said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore. "If a ceasefire is reached, expect a positive reaction in the euro and a weaker dollar; the opposite if a ceasefire fails."
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
EU data: Euro zone reserve assets for July
UK debt auctions: Reopening of 1-month, 3-month and 6-month government debt auctions
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
10 minutes ago
- The Independent
Bioethanol plant deems lack of Government support an ‘act of economic self-harm'
The UK's largest bioethanol plant has described a Government decision not to offer direct funding to the industry as 'a flagrant act of economic self-harm' which will force it to close. Vivergo Fuels, near Hull, warned earlier this year that it was in imminent danger of closure as crisis talks continued with the Government. This followed the end of the 19% tariff on American bioethanol imports as part of the recent UK-US trade deal. On Friday, the Government said: 'This Government will always take decisions in the national interest. 'That's why we negotiated a landmark deal with the US which protected hundreds of thousands of jobs in sectors like auto and aerospace. 'We have worked closely with the companies since June to understand the financial challenges they have faced over the past decade, and have taken the difficult decision not to offer direct funding as it would not provide value for the taxpayer or solve the long-term problems the industry faces. 'We recognise this is a difficult time for the workers and their families and we will work with trade unions, local partners and the companies to support them through this process. 'We also continue to work up proposals that ensure the resilience of our CO2 supply in the long-term in consultation with the sector.' Ben Hackett, managing director of Vivergo Fuels, said: 'The Government's failure to back Vivergo has forced us to cease operations and move to closure immediately. 'This is a flagrant act of economic self-harm that will have far-reaching consequences. 'This is a massive blow to Hull and the Humber. 'We have fought from day one to support our workers and we are truly sorry that this is not the outcome any of us wanted. 'This decision by ministers will have a huge impact on our region and the thousands of livelihoods in the supply chain that rely on Vivergo, from farmers to hauliers and engineers.' Mr Hackett said the industry has faced 'unfair regulations' for years that favoured overseas producers, and the recent US-UK trade deal pushed the sector 'to the point of collapse'. He said: 'We did everything we possibly could to avoid closure, but in the end it was the Government that decided the British bioethanol sector was something that could be traded away with little regard for the impact it would have on ordinary hard-working people. 'We did not go down without a fight and I hope that the noise we generated over the past three months will make the Government think twice before it decides to sign away whole industries as part of future trade negotiations.' A spokesman for Associated British Foods, which owns Vivergo, said: 'It is deeply regrettable that the Government has chosen not to support a key national asset. 'We have been left with no choice but to announce the closure of Vivergo and we have informed our people. 'We have been fighting for months to keep this plant open. 'We initiated and led talks with Government in good faith. We presented a clear plan to restore Vivergo to profitability within two years under policy levers already aligned with the Government's own green industrial strategy.' The spokesman said the Government had 'thrown away billions in potential growth in the Humber and a sovereign capability in clean fuels that had the chance to lead the world'. The bioethanol industry, which also includes the Ensus plant on Teesside, has argued the trade deal, coupled with regulatory constraints, has made it impossible to compete with heavily subsidised American products. Vivergo said the Hull plant, which employs about 160 people, can produce up to 420 million litres of bioethanol from wheat sourced from thousands of UK farms. It has described bioethanol production as 'a key national strategic asset' which helps reduce emissions from petrol and is expected to be a key component in sustainable aircraft fuel in the future. The firm recently signed a £1.25 billion memorandum of understanding with Meld Energy to anchor a 'world-class' sustainable aviation fuel facility at the site. But Meld Energy said earlier this month uncertainly over the bioethanol industry was putting this plan in jeopardy. The Vivergo plant is also the UK's largest single production site for animal feed, and the company says it indirectly supports about 4,000 jobs in the Humber and Lincolnshire region. Vivergo has said it buys more than a million tonnes of British wheat each year from more than 4,000 farms, and has purchased from 12,000 individual farms over the past decade. But it took its last wheat shipment earlier this month.
Reuters
11 minutes ago
- Reuters
India plans sweeping consumption tax cuts by October to boost economy
NEW DELHI, Aug 15 (Reuters) - India's government will slash the consumption tax it charges consumers and businesses by October, a top official said on Friday, hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced sweeping tax reforms to boost the economy in the face of a trade conflict with Washington. The federal government will propose a two-rate structure of 5% and 18%, doing away with the 12% and 28% tax that was imposed on some items, said the government official, who declined to be named as the plans are still private. The plan is to bring "99%" of all the items that are in 12% category to 5%, the official said. That tax slab includes butter, fruit juices, and dry fruits, and any cuts to the basket could benefit the likes of Nestle (NESN.S), opens new tab to Hindustan Unilever ( opens new tab to Procter & Gamble (PG.N), opens new tab. The tax cut plan comes amid growing tensions between New Delhi and Washington on steep U.S. tariffs on Indian goods. Modi on Friday made a public appeal to promote domestic products, and his supporters have been calling for boycott of American products. Addressing the nation on its 79th independence day, Modi earlier said that the goods and services tax would be reformed and taxes lowered by Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, set to be celebrated in October this year. "This Diwali, I am going to make it a double Diwali for you. Over the past eight years, we have undertaken a major reform in goods and services tax. We are bringing next-generation GST reforms that will reduce the tax burden across the country," Modi said. The final decision will be taken by the GST (goods and services taxes) Council, which is chaired by the finance minister and has all the state's finance ministers as members, the official said. The council is set to meet by October. Citi estimates that about 20% of items - including packaged food and beverages, apparel and hotel accommodation - fall under the 12% GST slab, accounting for 5-10% of consumption and 5-6% of GST revenue. If most of these are moved to the 5% slab and some to the 18% slab, it could lead to a revenue loss of around 500 billion rupees, or 0.15% of GDP, potentially taking the total policy stimulus for households in the current 2025-26 financial year to 0.6%-0.7% of GDP, the brokerage said.
Reuters
11 minutes ago
- Reuters
US manufacturing production stalls in July
WASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. factory production was unchanged in July suggesting manufacturing activity was stalling as businesses navigate higher costs from import tariffs. The unchanged reading in manufacturing output reported by the Federal Reserve on Friday followed an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production for the sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy, dipping 0.1% after a previously reported 0.1% gain in June. Production at factories increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in July. Motor vehicle and parts output slipped 0.3% last month after falling 2.5% in June. Automobile manufacturers typically shut down production lines in July for the summer break as well as maintenance and retooling for new models. Excluding motor vehicles, factory output fell 0.1% after rising 0.5% in June. "Tariffs on various inputs to production, in particular steel and aluminum inputs, could mean longer or more broad-based shutdowns this summer," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. President Donald Trump has imposed a 50% duty on steel and aluminum as well as a 25% tax on motor vehicles and parts. Trump has defended the duties as necessary to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, though economists argue that cannot be accomplished in a short period of time, citing high production and labor costs as among the challenges. There were solid increases in the production of electrical equipment, appliances and components, aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment as well as furniture and related products. But production of primary metals and machinery declined. Durable goods manufacturing production rose 0.3%. Nondurable manufacturing output decreased 0.4%, with production falling across all categories. Mining output fell 0.4% after easing 0.3% in the prior month. Utilities production slid 0.2%. That followed a 1.8% surge in June. Overall industrial production fell 0.1% after rising 0.4% in June. Industrial output advanced 1.4% on a year-over-year basis. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, declined to 77.5% from 77.7% in June. It is 2.1 percentage points below its 1972–2024 average. The operating rate for the manufacturing sector slipped to 76.8% from 76.9% in June. It is 1.4% percentage points below its long-run average.
