Why your coffee should be getting cheaper soon
Arabica coffee prices increased by 70 per cent in 2024 and another 20 per cent in the first two months of 2025 to reach a record high of US$4.20 per pound on 10 February, but coffee manufacturer Lavazza says that the rising prices may have 'peaked'.
Lavazza says UK consumers are shifting their coffee consumption from cafes to home kitchens in increasing numbers due to the high prices.
The Italian coffee giant said the sector had faced 'exceptional volatility', driven by a 'perfect storm' of droughts in Brazil and Vietnam significantly impacting coffee production and ongoing geopolitical disruption increasing transportation costs and delivery times.
Between early 2023 and the end of 2024, Arabica prices increased by 190 per cent, while cheaper Robusta beans increased by 263 per cent over the same period.
However, Lavazza chairman Giuseppe Lavazza said UK consumers may have seen prices peak following a 20 per cent increase in the cost of beans at the supermarket in 2024.
Meanwhile, a flat white at the firm's flagship cafe off Regent Street in central London is holding steady at £4 to take away or £5.50 to have in, reflecting current costs.
Mr Lavazza said: 'We think that the market reached a peak at the beginning of this year.
'It is our hope that the price for the consumer has peaked.'
High prices have not dented the 'strong trend' of UK consumers turning to beans to make fresh coffee at home, which began when the pandemic closed cafes but has showed no sign of slowing even now.
The UK retail coffee market, valued at £1.7 billion, has seen at-home consumption rise by 5.7 per cent on the year to date as consumers shift from cafe to kitchen, Lavazza said.
According to its figures, UK households drink 13 million cups of Lavazza coffee each week and use 1.4 million Lavazza capsules, leading to £10 million in sales for the brand's best-selling Qualita Rossa beans over the year to May.
Mr Lavazza said its new Tabli home coffee system, which uses coffee tabs that are individually completely free of packaging, will launch in the UK next year.
Designed to address concerns over the sustainability of aluminium and plastic packaging, Mr Lavazza described the new system as 'the best Lavazza has designed in history'.
'I call it a small miracle,' he added.
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