Mandel's Mailbag: Big Ten's Playoff power grab and bold calls for 2025 season

New York Times

21 hours ago

Pretty much every team in the country will hit the practice field for the first time no later than this weekend. The season is nearly upon us, which makes this a good week to start getting into predictions.
But also, the Big Ten's maniacal Playoff push and, of course, realignment.
Which national championship favorite stumbles and doesn't finish in the top 25 this season? — Jasper S.
I realize someone in the top five or so is going to fall on its face. But I'd be in a far more lucrative profession if I could predict ahead of time who will be this year's Florida State.
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Let's rephrase it to, 'national championship favorite that misses the Playoff.'
I wonder a bit about Georgia. Kirby Smart's program has earned the benefit of the doubt, even after two 'down' seasons (in which the Dawgs still went 24-4). But we've seen some cracks of late. Last season's 11-3 team was notably light on offensive playmakers. It was unable to fill the voids left by Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, both of whom had 1,100-plus receiving yards as NFL rookies. And the defense finished 30th nationally in yards per play allowed (5.1), lowest since Smart's first season in 2016.
I don't worry much about the defense. It's still five stars on top of five stars. And Smart made nice additions on offense in speedy USC receiver/return man Zachariah Branch and Illinois running back Josh McCray, who will make a nice complement to freshman standout Nate Frazier. But there's one position I'm surprised he did not try to upgrade: quarterback.
Georgia has a lot riding on Gunner Stockton, who, after understandably struggling in relief of Carson Beck in the SEC championship game against Texas (off the bench), went 20 of 32 for 234 yards, one touchdown and no picks against Notre Dame. That game was effectively over once the Irish scored on a strip-sack of Stockton just before halftime, then returned the opening kick of the second half to go up 20-3. Stockton was sacked four times, fumbled twice and spent much of the game throwing underneath. But he connected with Arian Smith on a 67-yard deep ball and threw a 32-yard TD to a wide-open Cash Jones on a wheel route.
If those two throws were indicative of what Stockton can do with a better supporting cast and another year in the system, then Georgia will make me look silly for even entertaining the idea of a slip. But if the rest of that game, and the Texas game before it, were more representative of his ceiling, then it wouldn't be a total shock if this preseason top-five team was out of the running by the end of October.
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If the Big Ten is so harmed by playing nine conference games, why don't they go to eight conference games? That is if they truly care about doing what is best for their teams and not making FOX more money. — Matthew C.
Based on their comments last week, the coaches are definitely obsessed with the eight- versus nine-game debate, and I'm somewhat sympathetic. These guys' jobs are dependent on losing as few games as possible, and their teams are collectively guaranteed nine more losses in conference play than the SEC's. But of course, no one forced the Big Ten to move from eight games to nine (that was a Jim Delany thing), just like no one forced it to expand to 18 teams spread across four time zones (Kevin Warren and Tony Petitti).
But based on Petitti's comments in Vegas, both at the podium and with individual outlets, scheduling seems like a secondary concern for him. Even when a reporter asked him, 'Is it a must in your mind that the power conferences play the same number of conference games?' he said, 'It's not a must. Each league will decide what they think the best conference schedule is for them,' before launching into a pitch for 'a system with allocated spots.'
You know what he mentioned repeatedly, though? Play-in games, play-in games, play-in games. That's his end goal in this. More inventory, more TV dollars, more happy faces at the Big Ten's de facto owner, Fox Sports. And I don't disagree that end-of-season play-in games would be exciting (though more exciting if the losers couldn't still get in as at-large teams). The problem is it would render the entire non-conference season completely meaningless and shift attention from the best teams in the country to the Big Ten and SEC's third-tier teams.
Lastly, I'd just remind everyone that, regardless of the number of games, every computer rating on the internet will show that the SEC's schedules, as a whole, are more difficult than the Big Ten's. Especially when top Big Ten teams like 2023 Michigan, 2024 Ohio State and 2025 Penn State play three body bags out of conference. The teams hurt most by the extra league game are the ones trying to get to 6-6. But if you're a legit CFP contender in either league, you'd much rather play a typical Big Ten schedule than a typical SEC schedule.
No one thinks the Huskies have much chance in the Big Ten. What are the chances Demond Williams Jr. makes a wave, with Ohio State coming to town in September? Washington is currently riding a 20-game home winning streak. Do the Dawgs have a chance? — Sean S.
People are definitely sleeping on Washington, which came in 10th in two unofficial preseason Big Ten polls last week. Jedd Fisch overperformed in Year 1, taking what was effectively an expansion team (two returning starters) to a bowl game. He has a star quarterback to build around in Williams, one of the nation's best returning running backs in Jonah Coleman and a go-to receiver in Denzel Boston.
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Meanwhile, two of Fisch's best defensive players at Arizona, linebacker Jacob Manu and cornerback Tacario Davis (both former all-conference selections), have reunited with him in Seattle. And while new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters had a woeful two-year stint as Purdue's head coach, he was a fantastic DC at Illinois before that.
Not that the Huskies are without questions. The offensive line needs to get much better. Experienced Kansas State left tackle Carver Willis should help. Also, receivers need to emerge alongside Boston. Penn State's Omari Evans was a notable pickup, but he was inconsistent for the Nittany Lions. And the defense as a whole is heavily dependent on transfers. Pass-rusher Zach Durfee, cornerback Ephesians Prysock and safety Makell Esteen are the only real veterans back.
As for Ohio State — that's a trappy game for the Buckeyes. It will be the first road start for their new starting quarterback (presumably Julian Sayin), as well as a bunch of guys taking on new roles. And it's not just that Washington is tough at home. The Big Ten's eastern/central schools went 3-10 in games against the four West Coast schools last season.
This just confirms the talking points from media days last week that the conference plays tougher schedules than even the NFC West and should be rewarded accordingly with automatic berths and ticker tape parades.
I'm so glad you've been sticking it to the Big Ten on this four-automatic bids nonsense. As a lifelong CFB fan of 40 years, I've been pushed and pushed so far by this sport and its lackluster leadership, but this may finally be the straw that breaks my back. I can't take it anymore. Do they not realize just how insane, unfair, and indefensible this idea is? — Tyler F.
Apparently not.
I've been covering this sport for nearly 25 years, which means I've covered every single arcane chapter in the evolution of the postseason from BCS to the four-team CFP to the 12-team CFP to this. There's been no shortage of bizarre, buffoonish moves by various commissioners, but most of them I was more bemused by than angered.
What the Big Ten is doing right now, however, is the most insulting power play I've ever witnessed. And I don't need a Twitter poll to know how the vast majority of you feel about it.
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If the writing is on the wall for the ACC losing its premier teams (Clemson, Florida State, UNC), should they be aggressive now by shoring up reserves? For example, if Memphis is paying now to join a league, why not poach them? Why not see about teams like Texas Tech, Arizona and Arizona State from the Big 12? — Craig B.
I still question where these schools think they're going to go. The Big Ten is already finding out that bigger is not better. That's a big reason Petitti is pushing so hard for CFP expansion. He has more schools that expect to be regular Playoff participants than is mathematically possible at 12 teams. And for the SEC, going to a 16-team CFP may be more appealing than going beyond 16 teams. Especially when two of those schools, Florida State and Clemson, are in states where the SEC already has a footprint. (Throw Miami in there as well.)
Now, it's a different story if we're talking about a breakaway Super League scenario. Interestingly, the ACC's lawsuit settlement with Florida State and Clemson includes a specific provision that allows six or more schools to leave in a specific sport and pay a lower exit fee (50 percent, or $75 million, whichever is higher). But if that day comes where the top 24-32 programs band together, all the conferences, including the Big Ten and SEC, will be fighting for scraps.
Finally, I don't know why any Big 12 schools would leave for the ACC. They have a nice, drama-free setup where they are now.
If the ACC decides to mirror the Big Ten and go to 18 teams, UConn may be at the top of the list, in particular because the ACC still cares about basketball. Maybe Tulane if it can sustain its recent football success. As for Memphis, that school has struggled to attract suitors largely because it doesn't have a great academic reputation (No. 266 in US News). That the Big 12 did not bite despite: A. Memphis offering to give the other schools free money. B. Granting the Big 12 an out to ditch Memphis before the next TV contract does not bode well for landing an ACC invite.
A friendly reminder that I personally have no opinion about any school's academics, and question why this should have any factor in deciding which stadiums your football team should or should not visit.
Hi Stewart, a fun game to play as we get ready for the season. Who will be the first team to gain bowl eligibility? And who will be the last? It gets interesting when you think multiple teams may get to six wins on the same day, and it comes down to which game ends first. As for the last team, good luck! — Eric Hazard
I love this question, both because it's a lot more fun than Playoff plans and revenue sharing, but also, Eric submitted it by actual email! You can too: [e-mail].
The first part is extra tricky because this is a year with two off weeks per team, so not many will be playing straight through for the first six weeks. So, it's no guarantee the first bid will be clinched in Week 6 (Oct. 4). And then to figure out the time of the games on top of that?
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I strongly considered Jalon Daniels and the Kansas Jayhawks, who are going to bounce back in a big way this season and get a head start in Week 0, so they do play their sixth game on Oct. 4. Five of those games are Fresno State, Wagner, West Virginia, Cincinnati and at UCF. But the sixth is at Missouri. Can't pull the trigger.
That brings me to two candidates playing on Oct. 11: Navy should be very good, and it opens with VMI, UAB, at Tulsa, Rice, Air Force and at Temple.
Then there's Pitt, which I consider one of the top surprise contenders. The Panthers' first six are Duquesne, Central Michigan, at West Virginia, Louisville, Boston College and at Florida State.
If Pitt is really 5-0 heading to Florida State, which, let's say is 3-2, that'll be the top ACC TV game that week. Last year, the No. 1 ACC game usually aired at noon on either ABC (though usually that was an SEC game) or ESPN. Whereas Navy's conference games were split either at noon on ESPN/ESPN2 or 3:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network. No idea which one would get the Temple game.
Given Pitt is more likely to be earlier, I give the nod to Pat Narduzzi's team, which would be its second straight 6-0 start. Hopefully this one doesn't finish 7-6.
For the second part of the question, I looked for western teams that could conceivably get picked for the late-night window on Nov. 29. Not a single Power 4 team fit the bill, and Oregon State is playing Washington State at 3:30 on The CW that day. But then I turned to the Mountain West, and there was an obvious choice: Hawaii, which hosts Wyoming at 11 p.m. ET.
Why not leave the CFP at 12 and give it five more years? — Shannon E.
It's telling that in every previous iteration of the sport, back to the BCS, the majority of fans have clamored for a bigger playoff field. Now, having gotten an initial peek at 12, I'd guess more want to stay where it's at than immediately fast forward to 16.
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Do you agree with Dan Lanning and others that the CFP should commence the week after Championship Saturday and finish Jan. 1 with bowl games played throughout the month on off days? Can we call it 'December Delirium?' — Don D.
Yes, absolutely. The inaugural 12-team CFP dragged all the way to Jan. 20, and it showed in the surprisingly modest viewership (relatively speaking) for what should have been a blockbuster Ohio State-Notre Dame matchup. It should have been up from Michigan-Washington a year earlier (25 million), not down 12 percent (22.1 million). Nor was it ideal that the first-round Saturday goes head-to-head with big NFL games.
I agree with Lanning that Week 0 should become Week 1. Not only would it help with CFP scheduling, but also it gives college football two weeks to itself at the start of the season, and, as Lanning pointed out, there could be less overlap with the season and the transfer portal window.
I was a bit surprised, though, that he said he'd prefer to start the Playoff a week after the conference championships. I realize his team was red-hot at the end of the regular season, then completely laid an egg in the Rose Bowl following a 25-day layoff. But most players need a week or two off after the grind of a 12- or 13-game season. While his team was negatively affected by a long break, Ohio State and Notre Dame, which did not play in conference title games, looked pretty darn fresh coming off a three-week break.
I've been beating this drum for three years, but my preferred schedule is:
• First round on the second weekend in December (currently Army-Navy week).
• Quarterfinals on the third weekend. Note: I believe the NFL would back off this Saturday, or at least schedule less-important games, if going against these games, which averaged nearly 17 million viewers last year.
• Semifinals on New Year's Day.
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• National championship on the second Monday in January, like before.
And then you have a three-week portal window beginning later in December, when only a handful of teams are still playing significant games.
If there were no preseason rankings, how would media outlets adjust to covering season previews and early season matchups? — Jon
There will always be preseason rankings, whether official (AP and USA Today coaches poll) or unofficial (the other 3,000 of them on the internet), because lots and lots of people read them.
And then complain about them.
And then read them again the next year.