Vietnam scraps two-child policy as aging threatens economic growth

NBC News

a day ago

HANOI, Vietnam — Vietnam has abolished its long-standing two-child limit to try and reverse declining birth rates and ease the pressures of an aging population.
The National Assembly passed amendments scrapping rules that limit families to having one or two children, the state-run Vietnam News Agency reported Wednesday.
The rules were usually stricter for members of the ruling Communist Party, who could miss out on promotions or bonuses if they had a third child.
Vietnamese families are having fewer children than ever before. The birth rate in 2021 was 2.11 children per woman, just over the replacement rate required for a population to avoid shrinking over the long term. Since then, the birth rate has steadily declined: to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023 and 1.91 in 2024.
Vietnam is not the only Asian country with low fertility. Also on Wednesday, government data in Japan showed the number of newborns there decreasing faster than projected, falling for the 16th straight year to a record low of 686,061 in 2024, a drop of 5.7% compared with the previous year.
But, unlike Japan, South Korea or Singapore, Vietnam is still a developing economy.
Nguyen Thu Linh, 37, a marketing manager in the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi, said she and her husband decided to have only one child because they wanted to give their 6-year-old son the best education and upbringing that they could afford.
'Sometimes, I think about having another child so my son can have a sibling, but there's so much financial and time pressure if you have another child,' she said.
Vietnam introduced rules blocking families from having more than two children in 1988 to reduce pressure on limited resources after years of war, first with France and then the United States, as the country transitioned into a more market-oriented economy. The population rose from about 62 million then to just over 100 million in 2023, the most recent year for which data is available.
Vietnam's 'golden population' period — when working-age people outnumber those who depend on them — began in 2007 and is expected to last until 2039. The number of people who can work is likely to peak in 2042 and, by 2054, the population may start shrinking. All of this could make it harder to grow the economy, since there will be fewer workers while the cost of supporting the needs of the elderly increases.
Vietnam is also dealing with a unbalanced gender ratio, partly due to long-standing preferences for sons.
Doctors are not allowed to tell parents the baby's sex before birth, and sex-selective abortions are banned. Despite this, some still hint at the baby's sex using coded language, said state media VN Express, citing a government report.
On Tuesday, the health ministry proposed tripling the fine for choosing a baby's sex before birth to $3,800, state media reported.
China imposed a one-child policy in 1979 amid worries about overpopulation. But as the country faces growing concerns about the long-term economic and societal challenges of an aging population, it has been slowly easing the policy to allow a second child and then a third child in 2021, but with little success in boosting birth rates.
In Japan, the fertility rate fell to a new low of 1.15 in 2024, compared with 1.2 a year earlier, according to Health Ministry data.
Experts say the government's measures have not addressed a growing number of young people reluctant to marry, largely focusing on already married couples.
The younger generation are increasingly reluctant to marry or have children due to bleak job prospects, a high cost of living and a gender-biased corporate culture that adds extra burdens for women and working mothers, experts say.
Japan's population of about 124 million people is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, with 40% of the population over 65.