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Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: World adapts to China truce, US tariff revenue, inflation in check
US and Japanese stock indexes are at all-time highs as the world adapts to President Trump's trade policy, tariffs bring in billions in revenue while not yet causing renewed inflation, and markets price in a 92% chance that the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in September. On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff truce between the US and China for another 90 days, pushing trade negotiations out to the fall. Average US tariff rates on Chinese goods are currently at about 55%, according to Bloomberg. Last week, Trump unveiled "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of US trade partners. The next negotiations to watch are Canada, Mexico, and China in the coming months. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Swiss say tariffs could raise costs for US F-35A jets The original price of the 36 fighter jets Switzerland is buying from the United States could go up by more than $1 billion due to the impacts of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more from Reuters here. AI boom could help manufacturers adapt to global tariff landscape Mark Bendeich of Reuters details how the confluence of supply chain disruption from Trump's tariff policy and the rise of AI software solutions is leading to increased innovation among manufacturers. Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, emphasized that the uncertainty surrouding Trump's trade policy is driving the technology push. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and COVID," Howells stated. "And it's what we're seeing now." Read more here. GE Appliances to invest over $3B in US, moving from China and Mexico GE Appliances will move production of its refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters from China and Mexico, investing over $3 billion to expand plans in five US states. AP News reports: Read more here. Bessent dismisses China investing in US as part of a trade deal Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out Chinese investments as part of a US trade deal. When asked if China would offer a multi-billion dollar pleadges like Japan, South Korea and the EU, Bessent said no. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Tariffs bring in record $27.7 billion in July as Trump calls haul 'incredible for our country' Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato and Ben Werschkul report: Xi takes aim at US 'protectionism' in phone call with Lula Leaders of the BRICS nations seem to be in talks. Brazilian President Lula spoke with China's leader Xi after meeting with India and Russia. This outreach comes after President Trump pulled Brazil into his trade war. During the call, China's Xi urged for coordinated efforts against US protectionism. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Soybean futures fall after Trump extends trade truce with China Soybean (ZS=F) prices fell back below $10 a bushel on Tuesday, after news of the US-China trade truce extension. Traders saw this truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the two nations until later this year. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. European Union awaits US follow-up on trade deal promises BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union could not say when a joint statement on tariffs with the United States would be ready, nor when the White House would issue an executive order on European car import duties, a spokesperson said on Tuesday. The EU and U.S. reached a framework trade agreement at the end of July but only the 15% baseline tariff on European exports had so far come into effect, as of last week. EU officials previously said a joint statement would follow the deal "very soon" along with executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump on key carve-outs. "It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the U.S. to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don't believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements," the European Commission spokesperson said. Read more here. 'Climate of uncertainty' remains after China-US trade extension Zhou Mi, an expert at the Ministry of Commerce-backed Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Bloomberg that there remains a "climate of uncertainty" despite the latest 90-day pause on additional tariffs enacted by the US on Monday. The Trump administration 'frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,' Zhou told Bloomberg. 'This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries." Average US tariffs on good imported from China currently sit at 55%. Read more here. Swiss precious metals group wants 'a formal and binding decision' on Trump gold tariff promise Not everyone is fully satisfied with President Donald Trump's social media statement on not putting tariffs on gold after uncertainty in the bullion market in recent days. "President Trump's statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability," Christoph Wild, president of the the the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, stated on Tuesday. "However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require." Read more here. China urges firms not to use Nvidia H20 chips in new guidance China has told local companies to avoid using Nvidia (NVDA) H20 processors, especially for government work. This makes it harder for Nvidia to recover billions in lost sales in China and affects the US government's plan to benefit from those sales. This latest move by China appears to be in response to the deal Nvidia and AMD (AMD) made with the US government over the weekend to pay the US 15% of the revenue for AI-related chip sales to China, adding a monetization layer to the Trump administration's tariff policy that has reoriented global trade relationships. In recent weeks, Chinese officials warned several firms against using these less advanced chips. The strongest advice was to keep J20 processors out of government national security projects, both for state-owned and private companies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan's Nikkei hits record high on tariff relief, tech rally The Nikkei 225 (^N225) hit a record high Tuesday as easing US tariff fears boosted optimism, led by tech stocks and tariff relief. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trump reportedly signs order granting another 90-day extension on harshest China tariffs Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports: Read more here. Trump says, 'Gold will not be Tariffed!' President Trump posted on social media that gold will not be subject to tariffs after a surprise US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) ruling sparked confusion over whether the precious metal faced duties. "A Statement from Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America: Gold will not be Tariffed!" Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday afternoon. On Friday, the Financial Times reported that CBP classified Swiss one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars of gold as subject to 39% tariffs recently imposed on Switzerland by the Trump administration. Gold futures (GC=F) declined 2.5% early on Monday as investors awaited clarity from the White House over its trade position on the precious metal amid reports that imports of Swiss gold bars would not be exempt from tariffs. Small US firms paying Trump tariffs face $202B annual hit Small US businesses are struggling to comply with President Trump's new tariffs. These companies, which are the source of more than half of the country's job creation are also finding it hard to cope with the growing financial strain from higher import costs. Bloomberg News: Read more here. Trump on China extension: We'll see what happens President Trump said China has been "dealing quite nicely" with the US, a possible hint that his administration is preparing to extend the countries' trade truce past a deadline that expires Tuesday. "We'll see what happens," he said during a White House press conference, adding, "They've been dealing quite nicely." The countries have held multiple rounds of trade talks during the 90-day suspension of sky-high tariffs on each other. Both sides have hailed progress in those talks. An extension into the fall could potentially set up a Trump meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which Trump has suggested could happen before the end of the year. Swiss government to meet pharma firms to discuss US tariffs The Swiss government is due to meet this week with leaders from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis, which have faced pressure from President Trump to lower their drug prices in the US. The meeting comes as Switzerland aims to negotiate for a lower tariff rate than the 39% rate the Trump administration imposed last week. And should Trump follow through on pharmaceutical tariffs as well, Roche and Novartis are considered to be more exposed, as they have comparatively fewer US manufacturing sites. From Reuters: Read more here. New gold tariffs are in effect. Will Costco gold bars be affected? Gold (GC=F) has been surging all year, and buying gold bars from Costco is just about the easiest way to get your hands on the precious metal — if you're lucky enough to find them in stock. However, the surprising announcement of additional tariffs on gold bars by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) left many wondering if the duties applied to Costco's gold bars as well. Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick reports: Read more here. US consumers to bear brunt of tariff hit: Goldman Goldman Sachs GS) says that President Trump's tariffs are only beginning to raise prices for shoppers, adding more uncertainty to the Treasury market where investors are unsure about how quickly interest rates will be cut. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% on China AI chip sales in US deal Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) have agreed to give 15% of their revenue from AI chip sales in China to the US government. This deal helps them get export licenses but is an unusual step that might worry both companies and Beijing. Nvidia will share 15% of earnings from its H20 AI accelerator in China, while AMD will do the same for its MI308 chip. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Swiss say tariffs could raise costs for US F-35A jets The original price of the 36 fighter jets Switzerland is buying from the United States could go up by more than $1 billion due to the impacts of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more from Reuters here. The original price of the 36 fighter jets Switzerland is buying from the United States could go up by more than $1 billion due to the impacts of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more from Reuters here. AI boom could help manufacturers adapt to global tariff landscape Mark Bendeich of Reuters details how the confluence of supply chain disruption from Trump's tariff policy and the rise of AI software solutions is leading to increased innovation among manufacturers. Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, emphasized that the uncertainty surrouding Trump's trade policy is driving the technology push. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and COVID," Howells stated. "And it's what we're seeing now." Read more here. Mark Bendeich of Reuters details how the confluence of supply chain disruption from Trump's tariff policy and the rise of AI software solutions is leading to increased innovation among manufacturers. Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, emphasized that the uncertainty surrouding Trump's trade policy is driving the technology push. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and COVID," Howells stated. "And it's what we're seeing now." Read more here. GE Appliances to invest over $3B in US, moving from China and Mexico GE Appliances will move production of its refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters from China and Mexico, investing over $3 billion to expand plans in five US states. AP News reports: Read more here. GE Appliances will move production of its refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters from China and Mexico, investing over $3 billion to expand plans in five US states. AP News reports: Read more here. Bessent dismisses China investing in US as part of a trade deal Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out Chinese investments as part of a US trade deal. When asked if China would offer a multi-billion dollar pleadges like Japan, South Korea and the EU, Bessent said no. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out Chinese investments as part of a US trade deal. When asked if China would offer a multi-billion dollar pleadges like Japan, South Korea and the EU, Bessent said no. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Tariffs bring in record $27.7 billion in July as Trump calls haul 'incredible for our country' Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato and Ben Werschkul report: Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato and Ben Werschkul report: Xi takes aim at US 'protectionism' in phone call with Lula Leaders of the BRICS nations seem to be in talks. Brazilian President Lula spoke with China's leader Xi after meeting with India and Russia. This outreach comes after President Trump pulled Brazil into his trade war. During the call, China's Xi urged for coordinated efforts against US protectionism. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Leaders of the BRICS nations seem to be in talks. Brazilian President Lula spoke with China's leader Xi after meeting with India and Russia. This outreach comes after President Trump pulled Brazil into his trade war. During the call, China's Xi urged for coordinated efforts against US protectionism. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Soybean futures fall after Trump extends trade truce with China Soybean (ZS=F) prices fell back below $10 a bushel on Tuesday, after news of the US-China trade truce extension. Traders saw this truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the two nations until later this year. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Soybean (ZS=F) prices fell back below $10 a bushel on Tuesday, after news of the US-China trade truce extension. Traders saw this truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the two nations until later this year. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. European Union awaits US follow-up on trade deal promises BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union could not say when a joint statement on tariffs with the United States would be ready, nor when the White House would issue an executive order on European car import duties, a spokesperson said on Tuesday. The EU and U.S. reached a framework trade agreement at the end of July but only the 15% baseline tariff on European exports had so far come into effect, as of last week. EU officials previously said a joint statement would follow the deal "very soon" along with executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump on key carve-outs. "It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the U.S. to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don't believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements," the European Commission spokesperson said. Read more here. BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union could not say when a joint statement on tariffs with the United States would be ready, nor when the White House would issue an executive order on European car import duties, a spokesperson said on Tuesday. The EU and U.S. reached a framework trade agreement at the end of July but only the 15% baseline tariff on European exports had so far come into effect, as of last week. EU officials previously said a joint statement would follow the deal "very soon" along with executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump on key carve-outs. "It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the U.S. to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don't believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements," the European Commission spokesperson said. Read more here. 'Climate of uncertainty' remains after China-US trade extension Zhou Mi, an expert at the Ministry of Commerce-backed Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Bloomberg that there remains a "climate of uncertainty" despite the latest 90-day pause on additional tariffs enacted by the US on Monday. The Trump administration 'frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,' Zhou told Bloomberg. 'This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries." Average US tariffs on good imported from China currently sit at 55%. Read more here. Zhou Mi, an expert at the Ministry of Commerce-backed Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Bloomberg that there remains a "climate of uncertainty" despite the latest 90-day pause on additional tariffs enacted by the US on Monday. The Trump administration 'frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,' Zhou told Bloomberg. 'This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries." Average US tariffs on good imported from China currently sit at 55%. Read more here. Swiss precious metals group wants 'a formal and binding decision' on Trump gold tariff promise Not everyone is fully satisfied with President Donald Trump's social media statement on not putting tariffs on gold after uncertainty in the bullion market in recent days. "President Trump's statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability," Christoph Wild, president of the the the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, stated on Tuesday. "However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require." Read more here. Not everyone is fully satisfied with President Donald Trump's social media statement on not putting tariffs on gold after uncertainty in the bullion market in recent days. "President Trump's statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability," Christoph Wild, president of the the the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, stated on Tuesday. "However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require." Read more here. China urges firms not to use Nvidia H20 chips in new guidance China has told local companies to avoid using Nvidia (NVDA) H20 processors, especially for government work. This makes it harder for Nvidia to recover billions in lost sales in China and affects the US government's plan to benefit from those sales. This latest move by China appears to be in response to the deal Nvidia and AMD (AMD) made with the US government over the weekend to pay the US 15% of the revenue for AI-related chip sales to China, adding a monetization layer to the Trump administration's tariff policy that has reoriented global trade relationships. In recent weeks, Chinese officials warned several firms against using these less advanced chips. The strongest advice was to keep J20 processors out of government national security projects, both for state-owned and private companies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. China has told local companies to avoid using Nvidia (NVDA) H20 processors, especially for government work. This makes it harder for Nvidia to recover billions in lost sales in China and affects the US government's plan to benefit from those sales. This latest move by China appears to be in response to the deal Nvidia and AMD (AMD) made with the US government over the weekend to pay the US 15% of the revenue for AI-related chip sales to China, adding a monetization layer to the Trump administration's tariff policy that has reoriented global trade relationships. In recent weeks, Chinese officials warned several firms against using these less advanced chips. The strongest advice was to keep J20 processors out of government national security projects, both for state-owned and private companies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan's Nikkei hits record high on tariff relief, tech rally The Nikkei 225 (^N225) hit a record high Tuesday as easing US tariff fears boosted optimism, led by tech stocks and tariff relief. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The Nikkei 225 (^N225) hit a record high Tuesday as easing US tariff fears boosted optimism, led by tech stocks and tariff relief. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trump reportedly signs order granting another 90-day extension on harshest China tariffs Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reports: Read more here. Trump says, 'Gold will not be Tariffed!' President Trump posted on social media that gold will not be subject to tariffs after a surprise US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) ruling sparked confusion over whether the precious metal faced duties. "A Statement from Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America: Gold will not be Tariffed!" Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday afternoon. On Friday, the Financial Times reported that CBP classified Swiss one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars of gold as subject to 39% tariffs recently imposed on Switzerland by the Trump administration. Gold futures (GC=F) declined 2.5% early on Monday as investors awaited clarity from the White House over its trade position on the precious metal amid reports that imports of Swiss gold bars would not be exempt from tariffs. President Trump posted on social media that gold will not be subject to tariffs after a surprise US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) ruling sparked confusion over whether the precious metal faced duties. "A Statement from Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America: Gold will not be Tariffed!" Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday afternoon. On Friday, the Financial Times reported that CBP classified Swiss one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars of gold as subject to 39% tariffs recently imposed on Switzerland by the Trump administration. Gold futures (GC=F) declined 2.5% early on Monday as investors awaited clarity from the White House over its trade position on the precious metal amid reports that imports of Swiss gold bars would not be exempt from tariffs. Small US firms paying Trump tariffs face $202B annual hit Small US businesses are struggling to comply with President Trump's new tariffs. These companies, which are the source of more than half of the country's job creation are also finding it hard to cope with the growing financial strain from higher import costs. Bloomberg News: Read more here. Small US businesses are struggling to comply with President Trump's new tariffs. These companies, which are the source of more than half of the country's job creation are also finding it hard to cope with the growing financial strain from higher import costs. Bloomberg News: Read more here. Trump on China extension: We'll see what happens President Trump said China has been "dealing quite nicely" with the US, a possible hint that his administration is preparing to extend the countries' trade truce past a deadline that expires Tuesday. "We'll see what happens," he said during a White House press conference, adding, "They've been dealing quite nicely." The countries have held multiple rounds of trade talks during the 90-day suspension of sky-high tariffs on each other. Both sides have hailed progress in those talks. An extension into the fall could potentially set up a Trump meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which Trump has suggested could happen before the end of the year. President Trump said China has been "dealing quite nicely" with the US, a possible hint that his administration is preparing to extend the countries' trade truce past a deadline that expires Tuesday. "We'll see what happens," he said during a White House press conference, adding, "They've been dealing quite nicely." The countries have held multiple rounds of trade talks during the 90-day suspension of sky-high tariffs on each other. Both sides have hailed progress in those talks. An extension into the fall could potentially set up a Trump meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which Trump has suggested could happen before the end of the year. Swiss government to meet pharma firms to discuss US tariffs The Swiss government is due to meet this week with leaders from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis, which have faced pressure from President Trump to lower their drug prices in the US. The meeting comes as Switzerland aims to negotiate for a lower tariff rate than the 39% rate the Trump administration imposed last week. And should Trump follow through on pharmaceutical tariffs as well, Roche and Novartis are considered to be more exposed, as they have comparatively fewer US manufacturing sites. From Reuters: Read more here. The Swiss government is due to meet this week with leaders from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche and Novartis, which have faced pressure from President Trump to lower their drug prices in the US. The meeting comes as Switzerland aims to negotiate for a lower tariff rate than the 39% rate the Trump administration imposed last week. And should Trump follow through on pharmaceutical tariffs as well, Roche and Novartis are considered to be more exposed, as they have comparatively fewer US manufacturing sites. From Reuters: Read more here. New gold tariffs are in effect. Will Costco gold bars be affected? Gold (GC=F) has been surging all year, and buying gold bars from Costco is just about the easiest way to get your hands on the precious metal — if you're lucky enough to find them in stock. However, the surprising announcement of additional tariffs on gold bars by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) left many wondering if the duties applied to Costco's gold bars as well. Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick reports: Read more here. Gold (GC=F) has been surging all year, and buying gold bars from Costco is just about the easiest way to get your hands on the precious metal — if you're lucky enough to find them in stock. However, the surprising announcement of additional tariffs on gold bars by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) left many wondering if the duties applied to Costco's gold bars as well. Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick reports: Read more here. US consumers to bear brunt of tariff hit: Goldman Goldman Sachs GS) says that President Trump's tariffs are only beginning to raise prices for shoppers, adding more uncertainty to the Treasury market where investors are unsure about how quickly interest rates will be cut. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Goldman Sachs GS) says that President Trump's tariffs are only beginning to raise prices for shoppers, adding more uncertainty to the Treasury market where investors are unsure about how quickly interest rates will be cut. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% on China AI chip sales in US deal Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) have agreed to give 15% of their revenue from AI chip sales in China to the US government. This deal helps them get export licenses but is an unusual step that might worry both companies and Beijing. Nvidia will share 15% of earnings from its H20 AI accelerator in China, while AMD will do the same for its MI308 chip. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) have agreed to give 15% of their revenue from AI chip sales in China to the US government. This deal helps them get export licenses but is an unusual step that might worry both companies and Beijing. Nvidia will share 15% of earnings from its H20 AI accelerator in China, while AMD will do the same for its MI308 chip. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
India's Infosys to buy 75% stake in Telstra unit for $153 million
(Reuters) -Indian IT services company Infosys said on Wednesday it would buy a 75% stake in Versent Group, a unit of Australia's Telstra Group, for A$233.3 million ($153 million). ($1 = 1.5279 Australian dollars) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Markets have convinced themselves they'll get a September interest rate cut—now they're eyeing a double reduction
A cooler July inflation reading has markets pricing in a 96% chance of a September Fed rate cut, though debate continues over its size. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for 50bps to offset missed opportunities earlier this summer, but some analysts warn that core inflation rising to 3.1% and upcoming jobs data could still delay action. Investors are pricing in more than a 96% chance of the Fed cutting the base rate in September, following a cooler-than-expected inflation report for July, released yesterday. But this isn't the only pressure Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are under: Analysts and politicians are also getting their orders in for how much of a cut they want to see. Despite the fact that the FOMC has reiterated time and again that their decision is based on economic data and anecdotal evidence only, that hasn't stopped high-profile individuals having their say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, for example, told Fox News yesterday that the 'fantastic' CPI numbers have lead him to question 'should we get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September.' His reasoning is that the Fed should have cut in June and July, had they known the fuller picture about the labor market. Earlier this month the Bureau of Labor Statistics shocked markets when it revealed payrolls grew by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May's tally was cut down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000. The motivation for a larger cut would be to 'make up' for the missed opportunities earlier this summer, Bessent added. It's unsurprising that Bessent would lead the charge for a larger reduction. He is backing the stance of the Oval Office that Powell and the Fed have been too slow to normalize monetary policy, and are hampering economic activity as a result. Yesterday President Trump reiterated this call, writing on Truth Social: 'It has been proven, that even at this late stage, tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury's coffers.' While analysts aren't sold on the idea of a larger reduction to the base rate, they're not ruling it out either. Speaking ahead of the release of the CPI data yesterday, State Street Global's Tim Graf told Reuters that while markets are unlikely to fully bake in a reduction of two clicks, investors may begin to hedge toward the possibility as we get closer to the September meeting. They won't price 'that it will be delivered,' he said, 'but that the probability is above say 0%.' The tone of the FOMC is also likely to turn more dovish, after two dissenters already split from the pack in July over the committee's decision to keep the base rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. And their stance is likely to be further boosted by the appointment at the next meeting by Trump-nominee Stephen Miran—widely seen by the market as a dove who will push for rates to lower. But with the FOMC missing a meeting this month—instead heading for the Jackson Hole Symposium—the committee will have more time, and crucial data, to help inform their decision. Investors should take notice too, wrote Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid in a note to clients this morning, instead of treating a September cut as a foregone conclusion. 'The main takeaway was for the Federal Reserve, as investors dialled up the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut in September,' Reid wrote. 'It was the same story for the coming months as well, with 105bps of cuts priced in by the June 2026 meeting at the close, up +4.4bps on the previous day.: He added: 'In their CPI recap, Deutsche Bank's U.S. economists think that the release isn't likely to move Fed officials from their priors in either direction, and that the upcoming labour market data will be more important with respect to near-term cuts.' 'With overall inflation likely under control amid a slowing economy, our base case remains that the Fed will resume rate cuts at the September meeting and continue cutting for a total of 100bps,' added Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note to clients this morning. 'We like medium-duration quality bonds for investors seeking portfolio income amid falling cash rates.' Core inflation snag Markets are perhaps willingly overlooking the small niggle of core inflation notching up to 3.1% in yesterday's release. This reading (as opposed to headline inflation of 2.7%) may arguably hold more weight with the Fed as it doesn't include volatile assets like food prices, and sits well ahead of the 2% target. For this very reason, a portion of analysts are convinced that contrary to the majority opinion, the July data has lowered the likelihood of a cut. 'It seems fair to say that the Fed could be considering a move in September, but I don't think a cut at that meeting is as much of a given as market pricing is implying,' wrote JPMorgan's head of investment strategy, Elyse Ausenbaugh, following the report's release. 'We will get plenty of data between now and then that could give the Fed pause one more time before taking action in the fourth quarter.' 'Do not expect a September rate cut' was the message from Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. Tentarelli wrote: 'The July payrolls report missed forecasts and the unemployment rate ticked higher—signs of a potentially weakening labor market. Meanwhile, 12-month CPI came in above the prior month for June and now for July. 'While one data point does not make a trend, two consecutive months of higher 12-month inflation will make it difficult for the Fed to justify a rate cut at their September 17 meeting. We remain bullish on the S&P 500 index into year end, but we do not expect a September rate cut unless the jobs market drops off drastically over the next 45 days.' Jobs data released in September will hold more sway over the Fed's decision, added Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, who said the July CPI report made it less likely for the Fed to cut in September because inflation came from 'sticky service prices rather than tariff-affected goods.' 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