The elephant in the room: As G7 host, how does Canada deal with Donald Trump?
While the stakes are high, expectations are low.
At a recent Ottawa meeting of the 'B7,' a group of business leaders from the G7 nations, participants saw the G7 as essential to global stability. Predictions for it, however, ranged from 'unity' to merely 'survival.'
The elephant in the room — always top of mind, rarely mentioned — was U.S. President Donald Trump.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
After his inauguration in January, business leaders' concerns about Trump's character and ideas on tariffs were balanced by optimism for lower taxes, regulatory restraint and capital markets growth.
Today, the president's promise of a new 'golden age of America' looks increasingly hollow as his losses mount.
After leading the G7 in 2024, the U.S. economy contracted in early 2025, the worst result since the pandemic.
And economists' forecasts are bleak with some predicting a U.S. recession should Trump follow through on his trade threats.
While Trump tried to blame his predecessor, his fingerprints are all over this economic crime scene.
As policies change with each presidential whim, so has business and consumer behaviour.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
Imports have surged as buyers stock up on foreign goods. Capital markets went on a roller-coaster ride. U.S. consumer confidence has plummeted, dropping eight per cent in April alone.
Businesses have paused investment, hiring and sourcing decisions amidst the crippling uncertainties.
The problem is, despite the president's propensity for lies, he's actually truthful about what he believes:
Trump believes trading partners are ripping America off, and fantasizes about 'reshoring' manufacturing jobs
He fails to understand that America's standard of living depends on a global ecosystem in which products and labour from around the world combine to deliver good products at good prices — and that investors won't invest without policy certainty.
Trump believes tariffs are a weapon to force allies to comply with his wishes
He overlooks U.S. reliance on these alliances, the harm his actions cause to American brands and businesses, and the punishing impact of higher prices on consumers.
Trump believes the U.S. is besieged by immigrants, and that the nation's great universities must be punished for 'woke' policies
So, he is indiscriminately cancelling billions of dollars of research.
He ignores how much the U.S. benefits from attracting world-class researchers to generate breakthrough discoveries — and that talent will avoid a country whose government vilifies newcomers and dictates the nature of scientific inquiry.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
Trump believes there should be no constraints on presidential power
He has suspended anti-bribery enforcement, fired independent watchdogs and attacked judges who rule against his violations of U.S. law.
He did so again this week, when a court found his use of emergency powers to impose tariffs was illegal.
Trump can't comprehend that this will deter investors, reduce America's influence, and embolden repressive regimes abroad.
For G7 participants in Kananaskis, Alta., the elephant in the room is real with a U.S. economy the size of the other six members combined.
And yet, the elephant can't be named.
When G7 finance ministers met in May, their communique warned of 'economic policy uncertainty' but avoided mentioning the word 'tariff' or the biggest cause of uncertainty — its own largest member.
It's like talking about losing weight without mentioning food or exercise.
But it's the price of unity.
We can expect Carney and others to take a three-pronged strategy to deal with Trump.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
Find unity: They will try to identify common concerns such as China's behaviour, trade imbalances, market instability, or wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
If they can't agree on the problems, the G7 would lose relevance as a source of solutions.
Contain the damage: Watch for them to try to contain the damage by prodding the U.S. into multilateral processes, from trade negotiations to peace talks.
Invest in the 'G6': While the U.S. is powerful, the other six nations combined (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, U.K.) are even more so.
The 'G6' leaders will invest in their relationships with one another, recognizing that while Trump is in office, they have an unreliable partner.
Canada and Mexico learned this when the president reneged on his own North American trade deal.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW
If America enters a period of decline, Canada's proximity to the U.S. will go from an asset to a liability.
As the smallest of the world's large economies, we have the greatest need to diversify our export markets, and to shed our complacency for competitiveness.
Amid these dark clouds, there's a silver lining. Canada has much to offer: a stable policy and investment environment; a skilled workforce; a political consensus to build trade-enabling infrastructure, add supply to the housing market and patch holes in our health system; a commitment to the rule of law, and to free, fair trade; and an embrace of diversity that's unique in the world.
As Canada hosts its peers, we can't ignore the elephant in the room.
But we also have a genuine — and long overdue — chance to lead.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Toronto Star
33 minutes ago
- Toronto Star
Vice President JD Vance is on the road again to sell the Republicans' big new tax law
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Vice President JD Vance is hitting his home state on Monday to continue promoting the GOP's sweeping tax-and-border bill. He will be in Canton, Ohio, to talk about the bill's 'benefits for hardworking American families and businesses,' according to his office. Aides offered little detail in advance about the visit, but NBC News reported that his remarks will take place at a steel plant in Canton, located about 60 miles south of Cleveland.
Winnipeg Free Press
33 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Chilean investigators close in on the notorious Venezuelan gang targeted by Trump
ARICA, Chile (AP) — The Venezuelan gang members wrote out even their most minute purchases in blue pen: $15 for a drug trafficker's Uber; $9 for instant coffee during a lookout shift; $34 for supplies to clean what investigators learned were torture chambers. The meticulous spreadsheets seized during police raids in Chile's northern town of Arica, and shared with The Associated Press, suggest the accounting structure of a multinational. They amount to the most comprehensive documentation to date of the inner workings of Tren de Aragua, Latin America's notorious criminal organization designated by President Donald Trump as a foreign terrorist group. An investigation built over years by Chilean prosecutors in Arica, which resulted in hefty sentences for 34 people in March — and inspired other cases which, earlier this month, sent a dozen Tren de Aragua leaders to prison for a total of 300 years — contrasts with Trump's mass deportations of suspected gang members. While Trump's supporters cheer the expulsions, investigators see missed opportunities to gather evidence aimed at uprooting the criminal network that has gained momentum across the region as migration from Venezuela surges and global cocaine demand spreads. 'With the U.S. snatching guys off the streets, they're taking out the tip of the iceberg,' said Daniel Brunner, president of Brunner Sierra Group security firm and a former FBI agent. 'They're not looking at how the group operates.' Transnational mafias have fueled an extraordinary crime wave in once-peaceful nations like Chile and consolidated power in countries like Honduras and Peru, infiltrating state bureaucracies, crippling the capacities of law enforcement and jeopardizing regional stability. The new developments are testing democracies across Latin America. 'This is not your typical corruption involving cash in envelopes,' said former Peruvian Interior Minister Ruben Vargas of the impunity in his country. 'It's having criminal operators wield power in the political system.' Chile, long considered one of Latin America's safest and wealthiest nations, is also among its least corrupt, according to watchdog Transparency International, giving authorities an edge in fending off this kind of organized crime. But with no experience, the country was caught unprepared as abductions, dismemberments and other grisly crimes reshaped society. Now, three years later, experts hold out Arica as a case study in wider efforts to combat the gang. While some see El Salvador President Nayib Bukele's crackdown on criminal gangs as a model, critics see an authoritarian police state that has run roughshod over due process. 'Criminal prosecution, financial intelligence, witness protection and cooperation with other countries, that's what it takes to disrupt criminal networks,' said Pablo Zeballos, a Chilean security consultant and former intelligence officer. Using Tren de Aragua documents first recovered in 2022, Chilean prosecutor Bruno Hernández and his unit brought an unprecedented number of gang members to trial last year, dismantling the gang's northern Chile offshoot, known as Los Gallegos. 'It marked a milestone,' prosecutor Mario Carrera said last month from Arica's shantytown of Cerro Chuño, a Los Gallegos stronghold. 'Until then, they were acting with impunity.' Following migrants to 'virgin territory' Tren de Aragua slipped into northern Chile in 2021, after the pandemic shut borders and encouraged Venezuelans to turn to smugglers as they fled their nations' crises and headed to Peru, Colombia and Chile. Héctor Guerrero Flores — a Tren de Aragua leader nicknamed 'Niño Guerrero' — dispatched managers to take over networks of 'coyotes' shepherding human cargo across Chile's desert borders. 'It was virgin territory from their perspective,' said Ronna Rísquez, the author of a book about the group. Tren de Aragua put down roots in Cerro Chuño, a former toxic waste dump outside Arica where Venezuelan migrants squeeze into boxlike homes. Residents said gangsters extracted 'protection' fees from shop owners and unleashed violence on those who wouldn't pay. 'We live in fear of them,' said 38-year-old Saida Huanca, recalling how Los Gallegos extorted her minimarket colleague and sent a knife-wielding man to collect road tolls. 'I didn't leave the house.' The gang terrorized competitors and turncoats. Court documents describe members tying up defectors and filming as they administered shocks and slashed fingers in clandestine torture chambers. Intercepted calls from March 2022, obtained by AP, show a rival panicking about Tren de Aragua's arrival. 'Where am I supposed to run, dude?' Chilean kingpin Marco Iguazo can be heard asking. Bodies were found, shot or dismembered and stuffed into suitcases. Many were buried alive under cement. 'It was total psychosis,' said Carrera, who reported Arica homicides surging 215% from 2019 to 2022. Cloud emojis and Christmas bonuses Last month at Arica's investigative police headquarters, AP observed Hernández attempt to persuade 23-year-old Wilmer López to talk. The alleged Los Gallegos hitman kept silent, eyes fixed on his Nikes. As a rule, members don't collaborate with investigations. Without testimony last year, Hernández's main recourse was bookkeeping records. They revealed a rigid bureaucracy with centralized leadership that granted local cells autonomy. 'We had to prove not only that they committed crimes, but that there was a structure and pattern,' said paralegal Esperanza Amor, on Hernández's team. 'Otherwise they would've been tried as common criminals.' Documents showed migrant smuggling and sex trafficking as the gang's primary source of income. While the per-client price for sex varies by city — $60 in Arica, over $100 in the capital of Santiago — each cell replicated the same structure. The gang confiscated half of women's earnings, then deducted rent and food in a form of debt bondage. Salary spreadsheets showed regional coordinators earning up to $1,200 monthly. Hitmen could earn $1,000 per job, plus protection for relatives in Venezuela. Most operatives received $200 Christmas bonuses. Investigators cross-checked messages among gang members with drone surveillance to decrypt their use of emojis. Some were self-explanatory — a snake signifying a traitor. Others less so: A bone meant debt, a pineapple was a safehouse, a raincloud warned of a raid. Getting to trial With the defendants in custody, the bloodshed abated: Arica's homicide rate plunged from 17 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2022 to 9.9 homicides per 100,000 last year. After the team secured 34 convictions on charges including aggravated homicide, human trafficking and sexual exploitation of minors, authorities paid more attention. Similar investigations proliferated nationwide. Carrera traveled to Washington to share intelligence with the FBI. 'The unit did something that had never been done in Chile, and achieved results,' said Ignacio Castillo, director of organized crime at Chile's public prosecutor's office. Other countries have largely struggled to prosecute Tren de Aragua. The Trump administration has used the gang to justify deporting migrants, with some arrested for little more than tattoos. Experts say the Justice Department is too distracted by mass expulsions to conduct thorough investigations. 'Those kind of yearslong investigations are not happening,' said Brunner. 'I see the current deportation tactics as working in favor of organized crime.' A country traumatized, and transformed The next challenge for Hernández's unit is tracking Los Gallegos as they regroup behind bars. Some Cerro Chuño businesses said they still receive extortion threats — from prison phones. 'Organized crime will always adapt,' Hernández said. 'We need to get ahead.' Despite the national homicide rate declining, enthusiasm for a more ruthless approach is spreading as leftist President Gabriel Boric, a former student protest leader, battles for his legacy ahead of November presidential elections. Polls show security as voters' top concern. The current favorite is far-right candidate José Antonio Kast, who draws inspiration from Bukele and Trump. He vows to build a border barrier and deport undocumented migrants 'no matter the cost.' Watching her grandchildren play outside a church in Arica, Maria Peña Gonzalez, 70, said Kast had her vote. 'You can't walk at night like you could before,' she said. 'Chile has changed since different types of people started arriving.'
Winnipeg Free Press
33 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Asian shares are mixed after Wall Street sets more records for US stocks
BANGKOK (AP) — Stock markets in Asia were mixed on Monday after U.S. stocks rose to more records as they closed out another winning week. U.S. futures and oil prices were higher ahead of trade talks in Stockholm between U.S. and Chinese officials. European futures rose after the European Union forged a deal with the Trump administration calling for 15% tariffs on most exports to the U.S. The agreement announced after President Donald Trump and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen met briefly at Trump's Turnberry golf course in Scotland staves off far higher import duties on both sides that might have sent shock waves through economies around the globe. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index lost 1% to 41,056.81 after doubts surfaced over what exactly the trade truce between Japan and U.S. President Donald Trump, especially the $550 billion pledge of investment in the U.S. by Japan, will entail. Terms of the deal are still being negotiated and nothing has been formalized in writing, said an official, who insisted on anonymity to detail the terms of the talks. The official suggested the goal was for a $550 billion fund to make investments at Trump's direction. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.4% to 25,490.45 while the Shanghai Composite index lost 0.2% to 3,587.25. Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.3%. CK Hutchison, a Hong Kong conglomerate that's selling ports at the Panama Canal, said it may seek a Chinese investor to join a consortium of buyers in a move that might please Beijing but could also bring more U.S. scrutiny to a geopolitically fraught deal. CK Hutchison's shares fell 0.6% on Monday in Hong Kong. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's Kospi was little changed at 3,195.49, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3% to 8,688.40. India's Sensex slipped 0.1%. Markets in Thailand were closed for a holiday. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6,388.64, setting an all-time for the fifth time in a week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5% to 44,901.92, while the Nasdaq composite added 0.2%, closing at 21,108.32 to top its own record. Deckers, the company behind Ugg boots and Hoka shoes, jumped 11.3% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the spring than analysts expected. Its growth was particularly strong outside the United States, where revenue soared nearly 50%. But Intell fell 8.5% after reporting a loss for the latest quarter, when analysts were looking for a profit. The struggling chipmaker also said it would cut thousands of jobs and eliminate other expenses as it tries to turn around its fortunes. Intel, which helped launch Silicon Valley as the U.S. technology hub, has fallen behind rivals like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices while demand for artificial intelligence chips soars. Companies are under pressure to deliver solid growth in profits to justify big gains for their stock prices, which have rallied to record after record in recent weeks. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. Wall Street has zoomed higher on hopes that President Donald Trump will reach trade deals with other countries that will lower his stiff proposed tariffs, along with the risk that they could cause a recession and drive up inflation. Trump has recently announced deals with Japan and the Philippines, and the next big deadline is looming on Friday, Aug. 1. Apart from trade talks, this week will also feature a meeting by the Federal Reserve on interest rates. Trump again on Thursday lobbied the Fed to cut rates, which he has implied could save the U.S. government money on its debt repayments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he is waiting for more data about how Trump's tariffs affect the economy and inflation before making a move. The widespread expectation on Wall Street is that the Fed will wait until September to resume cutting interest rates. In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil gained 24 cents to $65.40 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, also added 24 cents to $67.90 per barrel. The dollar rose to 147.72 Japanese yen from 147.71 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1755 from $1.1758.
