
Brazil Officially Enters OPEC+ Ahead of UN Climate Summit
The approval by Brazil's National Energy Policy Council followed an official invitation from OPEC in 2023. OPEC+ includes 12 core OPEC members dedicated to coordinating oil production for market stability, alongside 10 additional prominent oil-producing nations, with Russia as a notable member.
At a press conference, Alexandre Silveira, Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy, emphasized that although Brazil will cooperate with other OPEC countries, it will not be subject to mandatory production cuts.
Silveira highlighted the importance of OPEC+ as a strategic forum for oil producers, advocating that Brazil should embrace its role in the oil sector to foster economic growth, development, and job creation.
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Mid East Info
11-08-2025
- Mid East Info
COT Report: Speculators slash commodity longs to 11-month low, gold remains dominant
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Commodities In the week to August 5, several major developments drove positioning changes across key commodities. Trump's abrupt reversal on copper tariffs triggered a 22% slump in New York prices, prompting funds to halve their HG copper net long. In energy, OPEC+'s continued production increases—potentially into a softening demand period—pressured crude oil, while fading tightness in the diesel market led to long liquidation in London and New York from recent three-year highs. Grains remained under pressure as favourable U.S., European, and Black Sea weather maintained strong crop prospects, reinforcing elevated speculative short positions across wheat, corn, and soybeans. Notably, soybean futures jumped 2.5% in early Monday trade after Trump urged China to quadruple U.S. soy purchases as part of efforts to cut its trade deficit with China. As of late July, US government data showed China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, had yet to book any cargoes for the upcoming season that starts in September as tensions between the two sides linger. Overall, managed money accounts engaged in broad-based selling, with most of the 27 major commodity futures tracked seeing net reductions. The combined net long fell to an 11-month low of 540,000 contracts, valued at USD 107 billion. More than half of this nominal value came from gold's 161,811-contract net long—which, in contrast to the broader trend, rose 13% last week as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and potential dovish shift from the FOMC boosted September rate-cut expectations. Forex Despite emerging signs of the recent dollar recovery had run out of steam, speculators extended their recent buying spree to six leading to a considerable amount of further dollar short-covering. Overall, the gross USD short versus eight IMM forex futures slumped by 38% to USD 7.1 billion, the lowest belief in a weaker dollar since April, with selling seen across all eight except the Mexican peso, and led by JPY, EUR and not least GBP after the net short jumped to near a three-year high. Another extreme emerged in AUD where the net short reached an 18-month high.


Mid East Info
07-08-2025
- Mid East Info
Crude oil caught between supply surge and geopolitical tensions – Saxo Bank - Middle East Business News and Information
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank The global crude oil market continues to navigate a complex web of supply pressures and geopolitical crosswinds, with prices holding up surprisingly well despite expectations of an emerging supply glut once the peak summer demand season comes to an end, driven by rising OPEC+ output and fading global demand growth amid tariff-related demand concerns. Brent crude is currently trading just below USD 70 per barrel, after recently being rejected above USD 70, overall leaving prices stuck near the middle of the wide sub-60 to just above 80 range seen during the past year. Yet, persistent geopolitical risk and tightness in the refined products market, especially diesel, are helping to support prices for now. While the crude oil futures, both Brent and WTI, trade down around 8% year-to-date, the current backwardated forward curve structure has rewarded investors holding long futures positions, which on a monthly basis is rolled from a higher-priced contract into a lower-priced deferred. Taking this into account, the total return in Brent and WTI is currently flat on the year, with the two diesel contracts offering the only positive return at this stage. Opposite to this positive carry providing tailwinds, the complete opposite situation is seen in natural gas, where higher prices in the future—currently 29% in a year's time—continue to attract short sellers, preventing the price from gaining ground while making it exposed to selling during periods, like now, where fundamentals struggle to support. OPEC+ supply push vs. demand uncertainty Crude prices trade higher today following a four-day slump after traders digested another bumper production increase from a group of eight OPEC+ producers. With the 2023 voluntary cut of 2.2 million barrels per day now fully reversed, traders ponder what the wider group might do with a 1.66 million barrels per day cut that was also implemented that year. So far, the group's quest to regain market share from other producers has been successful, with prices holding up very well amid strong summer demand, and emerging signs high-cost producers, especially in the US, are pulling back with production seeing no growth for the past 18 months, currently stuck around 13.3 million barrels per day. With OPEC+ prioritising market share through rising production keeping prices relatively low, thereby tipping the market into surplus, growth concerns in the US and China—exacerbated by protectionist policies and weakening trade flows—are putting a lid on consumption forecasts. A recent deterioration in US economic data, most notably last week's dismal jobs report and yesterday's ISM Services data, which showed firms are pulling back on hiring as costs rise, adds to broader macroeconomic unease, with stagflation concerns once again receiving a great deal of attention. Secondary sanctions threaten Russian exports Among the most significant bullish catalysts in recent days is the prospect of expanded US secondary sanctions targeting countries that continue to import Russian crude. President Trump has pledged to escalate penalties, raising tariffs on Russian oil buyers from 25% to potentially 100%, with India as a primary target. These threats are already having an impact. Indian refiners are reportedly re-evaluating their Russian crude purchases, which could lead to significant disruptions. India has emerged as Russia's largest crude customer since 2022, taking in around 2 million bpd. A meaningful drop in Indian demand for Russian oil would leave a large gap in the market and potentially tighten global supply, keeping prices supported. Thus, the geopolitical risk premium remains—for now—a strong counterweight to OPEC+ supply growth. Diesel market tightness lends support Adding to the price resilience is the continued tightness in global diesel markets. Inventories across key hubs—including the US, Europe, and Singapore—remain roughly 20% below their 10-year seasonal averages. The shortfall is linked to a combination of factors: reduced Russian diesel exports due to sanctions, limited refining capacity, and lower availability of medium-to-heavy crude grades suitable for diesel production. With industrial activity and transportation demand peaking in the Northern Hemisphere summer, refiners have struggled to keep pace. This refined product tightness has helped maintain healthy crack spreads and indirectly buoyed crude oil demand, particularly for grades optimised for diesel yields. Speculators have responded accordingly and recently held net long positions in ICE gas oil and New York ULSD (Ultra-light Sulphur Diesel) near three-year highs. A potential risk once inventory levels normalise, potentially triggering a bigger-than-expected correction as longs are forced to exit. Brent holding up—but for how long? The current pricing structure—with Brent trading near USD 70—stands in stark contrast to forecasts calling for a substantial supply surplus later this year. With OPEC+ bringing more barrels to market and non-OPEC supply remaining robust, fundamentals appear increasingly skewed to the downside. Still, the market seems willing to look past the approaching glut in favour of nearer-term risks tied to geopolitics and product shortages. In effect, the market is balancing short-term threats against medium-term oversupply, resulting in a surprisingly firm price floor—at least for now. U.S. Natural gas slides back below USD 3. Meanwhile, US natural gas futures have come under renewed pressure. The front-month Henry Hub contract dropped back below USD 3 per MMBtu for the first time since April, hovering near the year-to-date low of USD 2.85. The decline reflects a persistent oversupply, with domestic production remaining robust and storage levels now 6.7% above the five-year average. Weather forecasts pointing to cooler-than-normal conditions in mid-August have added to the bearish mood by signalling softer air-conditioning demand. From a technical perspective, the front month contract trades near support with the mentioned year-to-date low at USD 2.85 being joined by USD 2.80, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the 2024 lows to the 2025 highs.


Al-Ahram Weekly
03-08-2025
- Al-Ahram Weekly
Eight OPEC+ countries raise production by 547,000 bpd - Energy
Saudi Arabia, Russia and six key members of the OPEC+ alliance said Sunday they will increase production by 547,000 barrels a day in a move which analysts say aims to regain market share amid resilient crude prices. Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, along with the Saudis and Russians -- together nicknamed the Voluntary Eight (V8) -- currently produce about 41-42 million barrels a day, so the increase is about 1.5 percent. Analysts said there was unlikely to be a major impact on prices, with the Brent reference oil currently selling at about $70 a barrel. "The eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 from August 2025 required production level," said a statement released after a meeting where the hike was agreed. The eight key producers, who started increasing production in April, affirmed their commitment to market stability on "current healthy oil market fundamentals," an OPEC statement read. Oil prices have held up better than observers anticipated amid strong summer demand and a high geopolitical risk premium, notably owing to conflict between Iran and Israel. "OPEC+ has passed the first test -- unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day (since April) without crashing prices or compromising unity," said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy. "But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion," said Leon. 'Low oil inventories' The post-meeting statement said the decision came "in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories." The OPEC+ countries agreed in December to start a gradual return from last April of the 2.2 million barrels per day of previous production cuts. The latest move, a year ahead of an initial 18-month schedule, completes the unwinding and also provides for a 300,000 barrels per day tranche granted specifically to the United Arab Emirates. The statement said that "the phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions". The eight added that they will hold monthly meetings for a regular review of market conditions. For now, the return of other production cuts is to be discussed at the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting at the end of November, with all 22 members. But OPEC said the V8 will first meet on September 7. In a bid to boost prices, the wider OPEC+ group -- comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies -- in recent years had agreed to three different tranches of output cuts, amounting to almost six million bpd in total. 'Avoid sharp drop' After a long period of producers seeking to combat price erosion by implementing production cuts to make oil scarcer, recent months have seen a shift in strategy. Prior to the announcement, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo had suggested the quota increase was "largely priced in" on energy markets. What happens over the next few months is less certain but ING's Warren Patterson said that the "base scenario" will see the V8 pause output hikes for the time being. For Patterson, a significant surplus may well emerge from the fourth quarter of this year, which OPEC+ would have to manage carefully. "The alliance is striving to find a balance between regaining market share and avoiding a sharp drop in oil prices," so as not to wipe out its profits, said Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates. Market experts warn that forecasting is particularly challenging given the uncertainty emanating from US President Donald Trump's tariffs policy and its effects on global trade, as well as his 10-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link: