IEA raises 2025 oil supply forecast after OPEC+ output hike decision
The IEA expects world oil supply to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.1 million bpd previously forecast, it said in its latest oil market report.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNA
3 hours ago
- CNA
Could robotics and timber tackle Britain's housing challenges?
LONDON :Gigantic robot arms controlled by artificial intelligence glide around a vast factory in Oxfordshire, England, making building frames from timber, one of the world's oldest construction materials. With the British government committed to building 300,000 new homes a year, some housebuilders say that the combination of technology and green materials could help them to overcome challenges from skills shortages to environmental targets. England lags many similar economies in terms of the share of housing accounted for by timber-framed homes. Britain as a whole, meanwhile, is among the slowest adopters of robotics, especially in construction, according to the National Robotarium research institute at Heriot-Watt University. "We're seeing more major housebuilders and small and medium-sized builders embracing timber as a way to ... overcome the skills and carbon challenge," said Alex Goodfellow, CEO of Donaldson Timber Systems (DTS). His business makes timber-frame structures for homes and commercial buildings, including walls, floors and roofs, then sends them to housebuilders for assembly. Its automated production makes for less labour-intensive housebuilding and provides a faster, cheaper and more sustainable alternative to bricks, stone or concrete blocks, the company says. A study by construction surveyors and consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall showed that building with timber is 2.8 per cent cheaper than with masonry. FASTER CONSTRUCTION The DTS factory in Witney, near Oxford in southeast England, makes timber panelling for about 100 homes a week with designs entered digitally using artificial intelligence, reducing the need for paper drawings. DTS says its robotics and lasers enable it to produce pre-assembled sections builders can put together quickly on site. The technology reduces the time needed to build a home by about 10 weeks compared with traditional materials, Goodfellow says. Yet barriers remain to any significant increase in timber homes in England. Amit Patel at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said the material is not commonly used in England because of difficulties in securing warranties for timber buildings owing to durability concerns. Barratt Homes tried to revive timber usage in the 1980s, but sales were undermined by potential rot and fire vulnerabilities. Andrew Orriss of the Structural Timber Association says that such concerns have been addressed by current building regulation and the STA's fire safety guide. He says that the off-site timber construction sector could help to deliver about a third of the government's target of 300,000 new homes per year - a level not achieved in England since the 1970s. Official government figures show that almost 200,000 new homes were built in England in 2023/24 and the Structural Timber Association said that approximately 40,500 of those were timber-frame homes. Builders including Vistry and Taylor Wimpey have opened or plan to open their own timber-frame manufacturing factory while Bellway plans to use timber in a third of its housing projects by 2030. Reduced environmental impact is another benefit touted by companies. GREENER AND LEANER? Simon Park, head of sustainability at Bellway, said timber absorbs and stores more carbon than it emits and that Bellway's analysis shows breeze blocks - made from concrete and known as cinder blocks in the U.S. - are the biggest carbon emitters among common building materials. Countering that, however, is the origin of the raw materials. About 80 per cent of timber used in the UK is imported, mainly from European countries, while roughly 20 per cent of its brick supply is imported. Concerns also remain over mortgage availability for timber homes, which is likely to improve if the government signals a move towards timber construction, said Riz Malik, mortgage broker at independent financial adviser R3 Wealth. An ageing workforce, meanwhile, highlights the need for more robotics. About a fifth of construction workers in the UK are over 50, according to the Home Builders Federation, with 25 per cent of those set to retire in the coming decade. The government pledged 40 million pounds ($54 million) in June for robotics adoption hubs across various sectors, but Maurice van Sante, senior economist for construction at bank ING, says Britain's construction industry is far behind other countries in robotics use. ING estimates that there were 1.5 robots for every 10,000 construction workers in Europe in 2023, against 0.6 in the U.S. and 0.5 in the UK. As well as filling labour shortages directly, robotics opens up other employment opportunities, says DTS manufacturing director Frank O'Reilly, adding that the company has attracted more interest from tech-savvy younger workers since the factory's introduction of automation and robotics. "It (the technology) encourages young people to consider this as a career," he said.
CNA
7 hours ago
- CNA
Oil regains ground from 2-month lows ahead of Trump-Putin meeting
TOKYO :Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, regaining ground after a sell-off in the previous session, with the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin raising risk premiums in the market. Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.43 per cent, at $65.91 a barrel at 0057 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.37 per cent, to $62.89. Both contracts hit their lowest in two months on Wednesday after bearish supply guidance from the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Trump on Wednesday threatened "severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine. Trump did not specify what the consequences could be, but he has warned of economic sanctions if the meeting in Alaska on Friday proves fruitless. "The uncertainty of U.S.-Russia peace talks continues to add a bullish risk premium given Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure," Rystad Energy said in a client note. "How Ukraine-Russia crisis resolves and Russia flows change could bring some unexpected surprises." Another support for oil is that the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates in September is at close to 100 per cent after U.S. inflation increased at a moderate pace in July. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers. The market is putting the odds of a quarter-percentage point cut at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting at 99.9 per cent, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower borrowing rates would drive demand for oil. The dollar was hovering near multi-week lows against the euro and sterling on Thursday as traders ramped up bets for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates next month. Oil prices were kept in check as crude inventories in the United States unexpectedly rose by 3 million barrels in the week ended on August 8, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, against expectations in a Reuters poll for a 275,000-barrel draw. [EIA/S] Also, holding oil back was an International Energy Agency forecast that 2025 and 2026 world oil supply would rise more rapidly than expected, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, increase output and production from outside the group grows.
Business Times
9 hours ago
- Business Times
Oil hits two-month low as US, IEA supply guidance weighs
[NEW YORK] Oil prices fell to over two-month lows on Wednesday after bearish supply guidance from the US government and the International Energy Agency, while investors eyed US President Donald Trump's threat of 'severe consequences' if Russia's Vladimir Putin blocked peace in Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled down 49 cents, or 0.7 per cent, to US$65.63 a barrel. During the session it dropped to US$65.01 a barrel, the lowest since June 6. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 52 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to US$62.65 a barrel. The contract fell to US$61.94 a barrel, the lowest since June 2. US crude stocks rose by 3 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 275,000-barrel draw. Net US crude imports rose last week by 699,000 barrels per day, EIA said. 'These crude exports remain subpar from what we got used to, falling due to tariff pushback,' said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York, adding continued lower exports could weigh on prices. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The International Energy Agency on Wednesday raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year but lowered its demand forecast. Trump is expected to meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine, which has shaken oil markets since February 2022. When asked whether Russia would face any consequences if Putin does not agree to stop the war after Friday's meeting, Trump responded on Wednesday: 'Yes, they will.' Asked if those consequences would be sanctions or tariffs, Trump told reporters: 'I don't have to say, there will be very severe consequences.' Trump also said a meeting between the pair could swiftly be followed by a second that included the leader of Ukraine. Meanwhile, in its monthly report on Tuesday, Opec+ raised its global oil demand forecast for next year and trimmed estimates of supply growth from the United States and other producers outside the wider group, pointing to a tighter market. 'Were we to take an aggregate of the respective IEA and Opec oil demand growth projections for 2025 at their respective bearish and bullish ends, even a modest middle figure, say just north of 1 million bpd, can easily be serviced by non-Opec supply growth alone at the moment,' said independent energy analyst Gaurav Sharma. 'So, I don't see a bullish case for oil over the near-term horizon.' REUTERS
