Tropical Storm Erin path shifts, but still forecast to grow into major hurricane, NHC says
As of the NHC's 5 a.m. update, the center of Erin was located about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 60 miles.
"On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. "Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday."
The cone of uncertainty shifted back to the north slightly since Tuesday with the northwest Caribbean islands less likely in the storm's direct path.
While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC advised the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor Erin's progress. Swells from the storm will begin to hit the islands by the weekend with dangerous rip current conditions.
"Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past couple of days, likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures, and a relatively dry mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass," Pasch said. "However, it is expected that the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for intensification over the next 48 hours."
The forecast from the NHC has Erin intensifying into what would be the season's first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds by early Thursday, making it a Category 1 hurricane.
The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that is just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday.
"Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce someimpacts on those islands," the NHC stated in its key messages for the storm. "However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm."
The impacts on the U.S., Bahamas and Bermuda also remain uncertain.
As of 8 a.m., the NHC also was tracking a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms that could develop after it emerges from the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, forecasters said.
"This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase inorganization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while thesystem moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph," forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
After Erin, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand.
A second system that NHC had been tracking in the northwestern Atlantic off the coast of Nova Scotia had its chances for development dropped to 0%
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
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