When will Tropical Storm Erin strengthen into a hurricane? See path tracker
As of 5 a.m. ET advisory on Aug. 14, Erin was located about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds around 50 mph with higher gusts, the National Hurricane Center said. Erin is currently moving west at about 17 mph, and this motion is expected through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend, according to forecasters.
If Erin stays on track, it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by 2 p.m. on Aug. 15 and a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher within three days, the hurricane center said. Gradual strengthening is forecasted over the next day with more significant intensification at the end of the week and into the weekend.
"There continues to be confidence that Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend," the hurricane center said.
The hurricane center said the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, with the swells likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August.
However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf, and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said to beware of rip currents at East Coast beaches: 'Families heading to Atlantic beaches this weekend and next week for a late-summer vacation need to be careful. Rip currents can be deadly. More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year.'
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
In addition to Erin, the hurricane center also said it is keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to emerge off the coast later this morning and move west-northwest across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or two, according to the hurricane center, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development.
The system is also forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by late Friday, ending its chances of formation. The NHC gives the system a 20% chance of formation through the next seven days.
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.
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Hurricane Erin To Rapidly Strengthen This Weekend; Heavy Rain Threat In Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands
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Erin to rapidly strengthen, reach major hurricane status this weekend
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Rapid intensification? Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
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