Latest news with #ChadMerrill
Indianapolis Star
16 hours ago
- Climate
- Indianapolis Star
When will Tropical Storm Erin strengthen into a hurricane? See path tracker
Tropical Storm Erin is continuing its path west across the Atlantic on the way to becoming a major hurricane this weekend and the first hurricane of the 2025 season, forecasters said. As of 5 a.m. ET advisory on Aug. 14, Erin was located about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds around 50 mph with higher gusts, the National Hurricane Center said. Erin is currently moving west at about 17 mph, and this motion is expected through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend, according to forecasters. If Erin stays on track, it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by 2 p.m. on Aug. 15 and a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher within three days, the hurricane center said. Gradual strengthening is forecasted over the next day with more significant intensification at the end of the week and into the weekend. "There continues to be confidence that Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend," the hurricane center said. The hurricane center said the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, with the swells likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf, and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said to beware of rip currents at East Coast beaches: 'Families heading to Atlantic beaches this weekend and next week for a late-summer vacation need to be careful. Rip currents can be deadly. More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year.' Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. In addition to Erin, the hurricane center also said it is keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is forecast to emerge off the coast later this morning and move west-northwest across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or two, according to the hurricane center, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. The system is also forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by late Friday, ending its chances of formation. The NHC gives the system a 20% chance of formation through the next seven days. Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.
Newsweek
2 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Millions of Americans Urged to Avoid the Sun in 16 States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Weather Service (NWS) had issued heat-related alerts for at least 16 states as of Wednesday morning, with the agency cautioning residents in many affected areas to keep out of the sun and forecasting "dangerously hot conditions" in parts of the United States. Why It Matters According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), extreme heat can trigger heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable populations such as older adults, young children, and those with certain medical conditions. The agency notes that extreme heat contributes to more than 700 deaths annually across the U.S. Rising temperatures can also worsen ground-level ozone pollution, potentially compounding existing health risks. What To Know Extreme heat warnings, which the NWS issues when "extremely dangerous heat conditions are expected or occurring," were in place for southern Nevada, southeast California, parts of Arizona, including Phoenix and the Grand Canyon, and a portion of southern Utah. In Death Valley, often dubbed the hottest place on Earth, the NWS said that temperatures between 118 and 122 degrees Fahrenheit would be possible, while Lake Havasu City in Arizona could see temperatures between 112 and 116. "Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors," many of the alerts advised. Less severe heat advisories had also been issued for several states, including: Oregon Texas Louisiana Arkansas Mississippi Florida Georgia South Carolina New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Heat index values, which reflect how hot it feels when humidity and temperature are considered, were expected to reach the 90s and 100s across many of these areas, the NWS said. What People Are Saying AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill told Newsweek that the heat across the U.S. this week would be on the move "thanks to an active jet stream pattern." "For Friday and especially Saturday, much hotter weather will move into the Midwest. Heat advisories could be posted for places like Des Moines, Iowa, Saint Louis and perhaps Chicago." "While the heat moves east across the country through the late week, temperatures will drop to near to five degrees below average for much of the West." The NWS office in Phoenix said Tuesday on X: "Afternoon temperatures climbed upwards of 5-7 degrees above normal today as highs topped out around 112-114° for Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through Wednesday evening." What Happens Next The latest extreme heat warning—for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon—was in force until 8 p.m. MST Thursday at the time of writing. The NWS issues regular forecast updates on its website.
Daily Mirror
3 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Mirror
Storm Erin LIVE: Hurricane fears grow as tempest barrels towards Cape Verde
Tropical Storm Erin is feared to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. Looming just outside of Cape Verde right now, Storm Erin is gathering pace and strength - and could reach hurricane intensity today. It has caused significant flood damage across Cape Verde - and led to unconfirmed reports of deaths. It is moving west, and so is projected to wreak havoc on the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean Sea if it reaches the strength meteorologists anticipate. These include Antigua and Barbuda, popular tourist destinations. Conditions are currently aiding the strengthening of the storm, it is understood. Chad Merrill, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, said: "Several factors are working in its favour, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes (wind shear)."
Daily Mail
3 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
Storm Erin forms in Atlantic as models show possible Category 3 hurricane with path to US
Tropical Storm Erin formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday as meteorologists warned it could develop into a major hurricane this week. AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking the storm west of the Cabo Verde Islands, saying it could become a hurricane by August 14 and intensify to a Category 3 by August 16. Spaghetti models showed it curving northward along the US East Coast, with the potential for landfall or a close approach. A spaghetti model forecasts possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs. Senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said: 'The upper-air pattern late this week favors it turning north and likely staying east of the US East Coast.' 'However, rough surf and rip currents could increase along East Coast beaches next weekend into early the following week.' A large plume of dust and dry air lies ahead of Erin, but as long as the storm stays within its current moist, dust-free area, it will continue to organize and strengthen. 'There will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East coast beaches next weekend into the following week,' Merrill said. Dangerous conditions may develop in Bermuda and parts of the Bahamas as well. This is a developing story... More updates to come. The system formed as a tropical rainstorm off the coast of Africa over the weekend, moving west toward the US. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday morning gave it a 90 percent chance of cyclone formation over the next seven days, but predicted it would become a tropical storm today.
Mint
4 days ago
- Climate
- Mint
Tropical Storm Erin forms in Atlantic, may become major hurricane this week; Caribbean and US East Coast on alert
ropical rainstorm in the eastern Atlantic has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin and could rapidly intensify into the first hurricane—and possibly the first major hurricane—of the 2025 season later this week, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. The system began as a cluster of thunderstorms off the African coast last week, developing into a tropical rainstorm near the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday morning. By Monday, Erin had moved westward into open Atlantic waters, aided by warm seas, minimal wind shear, and a dust-free environment. 'Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes (wind shear),' said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill. Forecasters expect Erin to travel westward before curving northwest between Thursday and Friday, a track that should keep its center north of the northeast Caribbean. Still, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Windward Islands could see rough surf, squalls, and dangerous seas. 'Low wind shear north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend, if it survives the next few days,' warned AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. The storm's eventual path will depend on the Bermuda High and an approaching cold front along the US East Coast, explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. If the Bermuda High shifts or weakens, Erin will likely turn north before reaching the mainland. If it extends westward, the storm could approach much closer to the coast, potentially making landfall between the Carolinas and the Northeast. 'There will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week,' Merrill said. Dangerous conditions could also develop in Bermuda and parts of the Bahamas. If Erin grows into a large hurricane, tropical-storm-force winds could extend more than 100 miles from its center. Areas like Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could face significant effects late next week. AccuWeather is also monitoring three other potential areas for tropical development: Central Atlantic Low – Low development risk; expected to track northward without land impact. Nova Scotia System – Formerly near the Carolina coast; expected to move into Atlantic Canada by midweek. African Wave – Set to move off Africa later this week; could affect the Caribbean in the long term. So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced four named storms, including Tropical Storm Dexter. Upcoming names include Fernand and Gabrielle. AccuWeather projects 13–18 tropical storms, with 7–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes expected this season.
