Tropical Storm Erin forms in Atlantic, may become major hurricane this week; Caribbean and US East Coast on alert
The system began as a cluster of thunderstorms off the African coast last week, developing into a tropical rainstorm near the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday morning. By Monday, Erin had moved westward into open Atlantic waters, aided by warm seas, minimal wind shear, and a dust-free environment.
'Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes (wind shear),' said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
Forecasters expect Erin to travel westward before curving northwest between Thursday and Friday, a track that should keep its center north of the northeast Caribbean. Still, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Windward Islands could see rough surf, squalls, and dangerous seas.
'Low wind shear north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend, if it survives the next few days,' warned AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
The storm's eventual path will depend on the Bermuda High and an approaching cold front along the US East Coast, explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
If the Bermuda High shifts or weakens, Erin will likely turn north before reaching the mainland.
If it extends westward, the storm could approach much closer to the coast, potentially making landfall between the Carolinas and the Northeast.
'There will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week,' Merrill said. Dangerous conditions could also develop in Bermuda and parts of the Bahamas.
If Erin grows into a large hurricane, tropical-storm-force winds could extend more than 100 miles from its center. Areas like Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could face significant effects late next week.
AccuWeather is also monitoring three other potential areas for tropical development:
Central Atlantic Low – Low development risk; expected to track northward without land impact.
Nova Scotia System – Formerly near the Carolina coast; expected to move into Atlantic Canada by midweek.
African Wave – Set to move off Africa later this week; could affect the Caribbean in the long term.
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced four named storms, including Tropical Storm Dexter. Upcoming names include Fernand and Gabrielle. AccuWeather projects 13–18 tropical storms, with 7–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes expected this season.
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