Storm Erin forms in Atlantic as models show possible Category 3 hurricane with path to US
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking the storm west of the Cabo Verde Islands, saying it could become a hurricane by August 14 and intensify to a Category 3 by August 16.
Spaghetti models showed it curving northward along the US East Coast, with the potential for landfall or a close approach.
A spaghetti model forecasts possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said: 'The upper-air pattern late this week favors it turning north and likely staying east of the US East Coast.'
'However, rough surf and rip currents could increase along East Coast beaches next weekend into early the following week.'
A large plume of dust and dry air lies ahead of Erin, but as long as the storm stays within its current moist, dust-free area, it will continue to organize and strengthen.
'There will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East coast beaches next weekend into the following week,' Merrill said. Dangerous conditions may develop in Bermuda and parts of the Bahamas as well.
This is a developing story... More updates to come.
The system formed as a tropical rainstorm off the coast of Africa over the weekend, moving west toward the US.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday morning gave it a 90 percent chance of cyclone formation over the next seven days, but predicted it would become a tropical storm today.
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Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
Tropical Storm Erin to become hurricane in DAYS as spaghetti models reveal chance of US strike
Tropical Storm Erin is predicted to become the season's first hurricane within days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) stated on Tuesday that the storm is moving through the Atlantic Ocean at 22 miles per hour, tracking closer to the US East Coast. Meteorologists said Erin is likely to develop into a hurricane by Thursday and reach Category 3 strength by the weekend, when it will be closer to the Caribbean. The unusually warm waters north of the Caribbean Islands have forecasters worried about an increased risk of impacts along the East Coast this hurricane season. While most of the latest spaghetti models suggest Erin will remain at sea after passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, a small number of model tracks curve northward, bringing it closer to the US East Coast. The forecast suggested areas such as the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Northeast could see increased seas, surf, and rip currents even if Erin stays offshore. There is a slight chance of a closer approach or landfall, particularly if the storm grows in size and strength, with tropical storm or hurricane conditions possibly extending outward over 100 miles from its center. However, the NHC said it is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda or the US East Coast. Craig Setzer, meteorologist and hurricane preparedness specialist, said on X: 'In a few days, when Erin is over warmer water & less dry air, it should begin to strengthen. 'The European model ensemble shows quite the spread in about 7 days as Erin begins a turn to the north, from east of Bermuda to near the Bahamas for possible tracks. 'Until we see where Erin is and begins its turn northward in a few days, uncertainty in the models will likely remain high. In the USA, if we have our hurricane kits ready, just sit tight and keep an eye on things.' As of Tuesday morning, the center of Erin was located about 750 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, the storm unleashed deadly floods over the islands on Monday, killing seven people. Municipal councilor Jose Carlos da Luz told a state broadcaster seven people had died in floods and one person was electrocuted, adding that three others were still missing. The system is moving west through the Atlantic's 'main development region,' which runs from Africa's west coast to the Caribbean. This zone, fueled by warm ocean waters, is where many tropical systems form as hurricane season reaches its peak weeks. AccuWeather has predicted that dangerous sea and rip currents are set from Daytona Beach, Florida, up to Nantucket in Massachusetts This puts Erin on track to become a Category 3 storm with winds as high as 115 mph by early Sunday, according to meteorologists. At that point, the storm could be near or north of the Leeward Islands. AccuWeather Lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: 'It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the US next week.' AccuWeather has predicted that dangerous sea and rip currents are set from Daytona Beach, Florida, up to Nantucket in Massachusetts. 'Families heading to Atlantic beaches before heading back to school should be cautious and stay in areas with lifeguards on duty,' DaSilva said. Elsewhere, Hurricane Henriette was a Category 1 storm in the central Pacific on Monday and was expected to retain hurricane status for another day or two before weakening. Henriette had maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, the NHC said. The storm was located about 595 miles northwest of Honolulu. Also in the Pacific, remnants of onetime Tropical Storm Ivo degenerated on Monday about 615 miles west of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. Forecasters said the remains of Ivo pose no threat to land.
Daily Mail
5 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Tropical Storm Erin to become Category 3 hurricane in DAYS as spaghetti models reveal chance of US strike
Tropical Storm Erin is predicted to become the season's first hurricane within days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) stated on Tuesday that the storm is moving through the Atlantic Ocean at 22 miles per hour, tracking closer to the US East Coast. Meteorologists said Erin is likely to develop into a hurricane by Thursday and reach Category 3 strength by the weekend, when it will be closer to the Caribbean. The unusually warm waters north of the Caribbean Islands have forecasters worried about an increased risk of impacts along the East Coast this hurricane season. While most of the latest spaghetti models suggest Erin will remain at sea after passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, a small number of model tracks curve northward, bringing it closer to the US East Coast. The forecast suggested areas such as the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Northeast could see increased seas, surf, and rip currents even if Erin stays offshore. There is a slight chance of a closer approach or landfall, particularly if the storm grows in size and strength, with tropical storm or hurricane conditions possibly extending outward over 100 miles from its center. However, the NHC said it is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda or the US East Coast. Craig Setzer, meteorologist and hurricane preparedness specialist, said on X: 'In a few days, when Erin is over warmer water & less dry air, it should begin to strengthen. 'The European model ensemble shows quite the spread in about 7 days as Erin begins a turn to the north, from east of Bermuda to near the Bahamas for possible tracks. 'Until we see where Erin is and begins its turn northward in a few days, uncertainty in the models will likely remain high. In the USA, if we have our hurricane kits ready, just sit tight and keep an eye on things.' As of Tuesday morning, the center of Erin was located about 750 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, the storm unleashed deadly floods over the islands on Monday, killing seven people. Municipal councilor Jose Carlos da Luz told a state broadcaster seven people had died in floods and one person was electrocuted, adding that three others were still missing. The system is moving west through the Atlantic's 'main development region,' which runs from Africa's west coast to the Caribbean. This zone, fueled by warm ocean waters, is where many tropical systems form as hurricane season reaches its peak weeks. This puts Erin on track to become a Category 3 storm with winds as high as 115 mph by early Sunday, according to meteorologists. At that point, the storm could be near or north of the Leeward Islands. AccuWeather Lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: 'It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the US next week.' AccuWeather has predicted that dangerous sea and rip currents are set from Daytona Beach, Florida, up to Nantucket in Massachusetts. 'Families heading to Atlantic beaches before heading back to school should be cautious and stay in areas with lifeguards on duty,' DaSilva said. Elsewhere, Hurricane Henriette was a Category 1 storm in the central Pacific on Monday and was expected to retain hurricane status for another day or two before weakening. Henriette had maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour, the NHC said. The storm was located about 595 miles northwest of Honolulu. Also in the Pacific, remnants of onetime Tropical Storm Ivo degenerated on Monday about 615 miles west of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. Forecasters said the remains of Ivo pose no threat to land.
Reuters
15 hours ago
- Reuters
NHC says Erin to become hurricane this week in the Central Tropical Atlantic
Aug 11 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Erin is moving quickly westward and is forecast to become a hurricane later this week in the Central Tropical Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Monday. The storm is located about 2,020 miles (3,255 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kmh).
