Sanseito, the ‘Japanese first' party that emerged through YouTube during Covid-19, deals big blow to Japan PM Ishiba's coalition

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In a big development in Japan's politics, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba 's ruling coalition failed Monday (July 21, 2025) to secure a majority in the 248-seat upper house in a crucial parliamentary election. The failure of Ishiba's coalition made way for the fringe far-right Sanseito party , which emerged as one of the biggest winners, gaining support with warnings of a "silent invasion" of immigrants and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending.The latest election loss is another blow to the coalition led by Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as it now becomes a minority in both houses following the loss in October 2024 in the lower house election. The results of the Monday elections have worsened Japan's political instability. It was the first time the LDP had lost a majority in both houses of parliament since the party's formation in 1955.Despite the election drubbing, Ishiba exuded confidence and expressed his determination to stay on and not create a political vacuum to tackle challenges such as U.S. tariff threats.Ishiba's LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito, which needed to win 50 seats on top of the 75 seats they already have to retain their majority, won 47 seats. It was three seats short of a majority and a retreat of 19 seats from before the vote.The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 39 seats, while its coalition partner Komeito won 8 seats. The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), bagged 22 seats, with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) taking 17 and the rapidly rising Sanseito winning 14. This election resulted in the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition losing its majority, marking a significant shift in Japan's political landscape.The leader of the main opposition CDP, Yoshihiko Noda, said on Sunday (July 20, 2025) he is considering submitting a vote of no confidence in the Ishiba administration, as the result showed it did not have voters' trust.Birthed on YouTube during the COVID-19 pandemic, spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, the party broke into mainstream politics with its "Japanese First" campaign. Founded in early 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to unfold, Sanseito initially gained attention for its divisive and inflammatory rhetoric, as well as its penchant for repeating conspiracy theories.It was originally started by conservative activists, including Sohei Kamiya, who launched it as a grassroots movement through a YouTube channel.The party strongly opposed mask rules, PCR tests, vaccine requirements, and other public health efforts, and was openly against immigration. It has bagged 14 seats, adding to the single lawmaker it secured in the 248-seat chamber three years ago. It has only three seats in the more powerful lower house."The phrase Japanese First was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people's livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan," Sohei Kamiya, the party's 47-year-old leader, said in an interview with local broadcaster Nippon Television after the election.After the ruling coalition suffered defeat in the polls, PM Ishiba still has slight chances, if not more, to retain his position, but it will be a daunting task as the party has lost majority in both houses. Ishiba has publicly stated he'll remain prime minister, mainly to manage critical tariff negotiations with the US, even though his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) now leads a minority government. Governing as a minority makes it tough for him to pass new laws without support from opposition parties. To regain a working majority, the LDP has already started coalition talks with parties like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and other smaller groups.For now, Ishiba is likely to continue, given that tariff negotiations with the United States are an issue that needs to be dealt with as a priority. But he could face calls from within his party to step down or find another coalition partner. One ray of hope for Ishiba, despite the poor showing, is that the defeat will not immediately trigger a change of government because the upper house lacks the power to file a no-confidence motion against a leader.Ishiba had set the bar low, wanting a simple majority of 125 seats, which means his LDP and its Buddhist-backed junior coalition partner, Komeito, needed to win 50 seats. Exit poll results released seconds after the ballots closed Sunday night mostly showed a major setback for Ishiba's coalition.The LDP alone won 39 seats, better than most exit poll projections of 32, and is still the No. 1 party in the parliament, known as the Diet. But Ishiba said the coalition's poor showing was because his government's measures to combat price increases had yet to reach many people.As the poll results surfaced on Sunday, Ishiba told reporters he would remain as prime minister, citing a looming tariff deadline with the United States set to strain the world's fourth-largest economy. 'It's a tough situation. I take it humbly and sincerely,' Ishiba told a live interview with NHK.Soaring prices, lagging incomes, and burdensome social security payments are the top issues for frustrated, cash-strapped voters. Stricter measures targeting foreign residents and visitors also emerged as a key issue, with a surging right-wing populist party leading the campaign.Sunday's vote comes after Ishiba's coalition lost a majority in the October lower house election, stung by past corruption scandals, and his unpopular government has since been forced into making concessions to the opposition to get legislation through parliament. It has been unable to quickly deliver effective measures to mitigate rising prices, including Japan's traditional staple of rice, and dwindling wages.U.S. President Donald Trump has added to the pressure, complaining about a lack of progress in trade negotiations and the lack of sales of U.S. autos and American-grown rice to Japan despite a shortfall in domestic stocks of the grain. A 25% tariff due to take effect Aug. 1 has been another blow for Ishiba.Ishiba resisted any compromise before the election, but the prospect of a breakthrough after the election is just as unclear because the minority government would have difficulty forming a consensus with the opposition.Frustrated voters were rapidly turning to emerging populist parties. The eight main opposition groups, however, were too fractured to forge a common platform as a united front and gain voter support as a viable alternative.The emerging populist party Sanseito stands out with the toughest anti-foreigner stance, with its 'Japanese First' platform that proposes a new agency to handle policies related to foreigners. The party's populist platform also includes anti-vaccine, anti-globalism, and favors traditional gender roles.Conservative opposition groups, especially the DPP and Sanseito, gained significant ground at the Liberal Democrats' expense, while the centrist top opposition CDPJ was sluggish. The DPP quadrupled to 17 seats from four, according to interim results reported by Japanese media. Sanseito surged to 14 from just one.Sanseito leader, former local assembly member, and Self-Defense Force reserve personnel, told NHK he is open to cooperating with the ruling bloc on conservative policies while waiting to gain more seats in the other house in the next election and form a multi-party coalition as in Europe.None of the opposition parties said that they were open to cooperating with the governing coalition. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda told NHK that his priority is to ally with the opposition. 'Public opinion clearly said 'no' to the Ishiba government,' Noda said. The spread of xenophobic rhetoric in the election campaign and on social media triggered protests by human rights activists and alarmed foreign residents.