Anas Sarwar's joy quickly sours as reality of UK Labour's record bites

The National

a day ago

Claiming as Anas Sarwar tried in the immediate aftermath that the result was 'the first stone on the path to a Labour government next year' is less of a stretch and more heroic projection.
But given what the story would have been if his party had failed, after a torrid few months you can hardly blame him for trying to put as much hot air in his balloon as he could manage. By Sunday, though, Sarwar's mood had clearly soured.
His outing on The Sunday Show was little more than an angry rant, spending much of his airtime not so much failing to answer questions as failing to even allow them to be asked, talking over the presenter with a stream of vitriol about everyone from the SNP in general and John Swinney in particular, to the media itself.
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Ironically, he seemed to have far more to say about the SNP warning about the dangers of Reform than he did about the dangers of the Reform party itself. For someone who wants and indeed needs the country to believe that he might still be in with a shout of being our next first minister, let's just say it wasn't very, well, first ministerial.
The cause of all this anger? It was hard to tell. But you'd have to say Sarwar really doesn't like being asked to defend his party's dismal record in the UK Government. And he really, really didn't like having it pointed out to him that despite narrowly emerging with the most votes last Thursday, his party has seen a dramatic drop-off in support since last year's Westminster election. Now the smoke has cleared, the reality is this – as disappointing as it was from an SNP perspective not to win, the result was, give or take, in line with national Scotland-wide polling.
(Image: Andrew Milligan/ PA Wire)
While the SNP were well down on a high point of Holyrood 2021, Labour were also down on what was their 2021 low point. And when compared with the Westminster results last year, it's clear Labour support is down massively while the SNP are posting a modest revival. So, while Labour are not out of it yet, they are still well off the pace.
For the SNP, it's a reminder if any were needed that while it was necessary for the party to 'steady the ship', this is insufficient in and of itself to bring the electoral success necessary to advance independence politically.
For the Greens, it shows that even though they have no chance of winning first-past-the-post seats, if enough independence supporters favour them in an electoral contest they can take enough support to let a Unionist party slip through to victory. And as for the LibDems, it's clear that vast areas of Scotland are still complete no-go areas for them.
In all the noise about Reform, however, one story seems to be being largely missed and that is how they are eating the Scottish Tories alive, to the point where if it continues, the Tories could end up duking it out for fourth, fifth or even sixth place in Holyrood next year between the Greens and the LibDems.
It would be quite the fall from grace for the party that managed to take official opposition status at Holyrood under Ruth Davidson's brand. But as the brand tarnished in the slipstream of Boris Johnson, the aftermath of Brexit and the general vacuity of her eponymous project, so the politics and the rhetoric became ever more extreme.
There's a distinction to be drawn between Reform the party and people voting Reform. The party seems to be attracting a motley mix of cranks, obsessives and opportunists as candidates, all of whom just about manage to agree with each other on who and what they dislike, and that, for now at least, 'in Nigel we trust'.
But no matter what you can say about their public representatives and the hash they are making of the responsibilities they have been given, it's worth reflecting that not all of those who chose to favour them with their votes right now are necessarily signed up to the full-fat Reform agenda, scant on detail as that is.
It's quite obvious large numbers of voters are scunnered right now. The cost of living crisis might be spoken of less but is no less present.
If you have a frustration about the political system and the outcomes it has delivered; are disinclined to vote for independence as a route to something better; if you see a party which seems to be annoying all the right people as you see it; and if you feel the stakes are low enough, then 'why not?', you might feel.
But back to the SNP. It should be clear by now there is no shortcut back to previous levels of popularity, and even if there is an 'independence button' out there to be pushed, it will only be to provide a temporary dopamine hit for the already convinced.
If the SNP want to win back independence supporters – and crucially, those who are not yet independence supporters but who could be persuaded – the only route to that is through good government in the present; a clear vision for the future; and putting front and centre our arguments about why those who live in Scotland should be deciding what happens in Scotland.