Susan Collins navigates Trump land mines with reelection bid looming

Yahoo

2 days ago

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is feeling the squeeze as she navigates a series of political land mines that put her at odds with President Trump and many of her own colleagues.
Collins this summer voted 'no' on two of Trump's biggest priorities: the GOP's mammoth tax and spending bill and a measure to claw back money Congress had already appropriated. She also opposed several of the president's high-profile Cabinet nominees.
Her vote on the rescissions measure only complicated her next difficult task: shepherding government funding legislation to Trump's desk as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee — her longtime dream job that she finally secured earlier this year.
And hovering in the background is next year's midterms, when she is expected to seek a sixth term in a seat Democrats are eyeing as a key pickup opportunity.
'Give me one senator who would trade her position,' said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a top ally of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and an Appropriations panel member.
He answered his own question: 'None.'
Collins has long been a one-of-one member in the conference, as the foremost centrist from a blue state that GOP leadership has had to juggle as part of a membership that has trended more MAGA throughout the years.
But while that balance has always been tough, it has perhaps never been more difficult than it is right now.
Collins is in the midst of a high-stakes effort to fund the government by the end of September, one that was complicated by the GOP's bill to rescind public media and foreign aid funding.
Even though Collins voted against the bill, as the chief GOP negotiator, she still has to deal with the fallout, as Democrats warn the measure poisoned the well and left them with little incentive to work with Republicans.
The Maine Republican appears to have the train on the bipartisan tracks — for now.
The Senate is hopeful to pass a three-bill appropriations package — known as a 'minibus' — to fund the departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce and Justice by the end of the work period, but lawmakers readily acknowledge that this is a high-wire act.
'She's got a tough job,' said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), an appropriator. 'I think it's really tough. The whole Congress is fractured on spending.'
'Nobody wants that job right now. … It's not Robert Byrd's Appropriations Committee,' Capito continued, referring to the powerful former West Virginia Democrat who served three stints atop the panel.
Amid all of it, Collins must also eye her looming reelection bid next year in the only remaining GOP seat in a blue state, and one Democrats are anxious to flip.
Multiple Senate Republicans indicated to The Hill in recent weeks that they fully expect her to move forward with a campaign. They're also praying she does, as they readily admit the seat is gone if she decides to opt against another term.
'She's the only person that can win,' Thune recently told The Hill while laying out their sales pitch for her to move ahead with a campaign.
'She has a really hard job, because she's in a conference composed largely of people who represent states that are very different from hers,' Thune said. 'But I do think there's a compelling argument to chair the Appropriations Committee, get it working again — and, to me, that would be a pretty powerful rationale for running.'
Polls show a muddled picture for the five-term moderate. A recent survey taken by Morning Consult shows her favorability at only 38 percent, with 54 percent disapproving of her performance — putting her 16 points underwater. However, Maine-based Pan Atlantic Research unveiled a poll last month showing that her favorability remains above water.
Despite the tumult and uncertainty, Collins maintained she doesn't feel the walls closing in on her.
'I've been here a number of years. I've been through many high-pressure events,' Collins told The Hill. 'That's the nature of the job if you're in a leadership position or if you're representing your constituents.'
Collins is in a strong fundraising spot, having raked in $2.4 million between April and June. She also has $5.2 million on hand.
Perhaps more notable at this point is that Democrats continue to struggle to find a candidate willing to take her on.
The party is largely pinning their hopes on 77-year-old Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) taking the plunge, but she has shown few signs of being gung-ho about challenging Collins. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), a former Collins staffer, also declined to take her on and is expected to seek reelection to the House next year instead.
Democrats are also still licking their wounds from 2020, when Collins trailed Sara Gideon for much of the cycle after being outspent heavily, only to end up winning by 9 percentage points.
Trump, who has made clear his dissatisfaction with those who've opposed his agenda, notably hasn't trained his fire on the Maine senator.
Collins, meanwhile, is making clear she doesn't need any help from the White House.
'I've never had his endorsement and I've never sought it,' she recently told Semafor. 'And I run my own race.'
In the meantime, Democrats are hoping to tether Collins to the GOP's 'big, beautiful bill' and the bill to claw back funding, even though she opposed both measures.
They specifically point to her vote to open debate on the bill, days before she voted against final passage due to the law's impact on Medicaid beneficiaries and rural hospitals in the Pine Tree State.
'Susan Collins is facing record low approval ratings in Maine because when push comes to shove, she will always have the backs of Donald Trump and Washington Republicans, not Mainers,' said Tommy Garcia, a Maine Democratic Party spokesperson. 'In the past month alone, Collins refused to use the power she likes to campaign on to stop devastating cuts to rural broadcast stations and cast a pivotal vote to green light Medicaid cuts.'
Even amid the rough-and-tumble stretch, Republicans are maintaining their confidence in her to make it through unscathed.
'She keeps it all together,' said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), likening her to Wonder Woman. 'If you're going to take her on, you better come really well prepared.'
'Even at that,' he continued, 'you're probably not prepared enough.'
Updated at 8:59 a.m. EDT
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