NDIS costs will still need to be reined in, but this autism plan is a good start
The NDIS cost more than $46 billion last year and is projected to cost more than $58 billion by 2028. At the current rate, it will exceed 2.1 per cent of Australia's GDP by 2033-34, with only support to seniors and revenue assistance to the states and territories costing the federal budget more.
These burgeoning costs need to be reined in, and this week's reform announcements by Health Minister Mark Butler are a step in the right direction.
Beyond the budgetary imperatives, NDIS reform is also vital because the scheme as currently designed is ill equipped to meet the needs of some of the 740,000 Australians who rely on it. In particular, the NDIS has become what Butler described on Wednesday as the only port in the storm for hundreds of thousands of families of children with developmental delay and autism.
Nearly half of all NDIS participants today are children with developmental delay or autism. One in nine 6-year-olds – and one in seven 6-year-old boys – are now in the scheme. Most were expected to need only short-term help, yet in practice many stay for the long haul. Each child who remains in the scheme for life could cost the NDIS $2 million or more.
But the NDIS design is not well suited to delivering timely and evidence-based early intervention. Loosely allocating money to families, who must then differentiate between therapies in the marketplace under pressure from providers, is not the optimal approach.
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We have spent too long admiring this problem and almost as long prevaricating over the solution, so Butler's National Press Club speech about correcting course and introducing a 'Thriving Kids' program is welcome.
Thriving Kids is the new name for the foundational supports – disability-specific supports outside of individual NDIS packages – that the 2023 NDIS Review called for as an alternative for many children aged up to nine.
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