
Global food prices surge as heat, drought and rain disrupt crops
While higher production costs and the war in Ukraine have fuelled some of the price hikes, extreme weather events have also played a significant role, according to new research.
A study published on Monday highlighted 16 food items across 18 countries - including British potatoes and Spanish olive oil - that have become more expensive as a result of unprecedented heat, drought or rainfall between 2022 and 2024.
Its authors say these examples highlight the ongoing societal risks posed by the impacts of unmitigated climate change on the food system.
'Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and it's already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world,' says Maximillian Kotz, Marie-Curie post-doctoral fellow at BSC and lead author of the study.
Heat, drought and rain drive spikes in food prices
Recent years have seen numerous abnormal weather events that would have been unprecedented prior to 2020.
2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 15°C above preindustrial climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth's surface.
Heavy rain lashed the UK between September and December 2023, while areas of Pakistan and Australia suffered disastrous floods in 2022.
The new study, published in Environmental Research Letters, has now linked these extreme weather phenomena to spikes in food prices.
The research was conducted by an interdisciplinary team from six European research institutes, including the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) and University of Aberdeen and the Food Foundation, alongside the European Central Bank (ECB).
It was released ahead of the United Nations Food Systems Summit, which will be co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 27 to 29 July.
Climate change is making British potatoes and Spanish olive oil more expensive
The study investigated examples of food price spikes associated with heat, drought and heavy rain across 18 countries over a two-year period from 2022 to 2024.
Extreme weather phenomena can destroy growing crops and severely impact yields.
Two European food items were included in the research. In the UK, potato prices increased 22 per cent from January to February 2024 due to extreme winter rainfall.
'Last year, the UK had its third-worst arable harvest on record, and England its second worst, following extreme rainfall that scientists said was made about 10 times more likely and 20 per cent more intense by climate change,' says Amber Sawyer, analyst at the UK's ECIU.
'But it's not just that. British farmers have been yo-yoing between extremes for the past few years.'
Sawyer adds that they've gone from having to contend with extreme heat in 2022, when temperatures reached 40°C for the first time, to extreme rain in late 2023 and early 2024, both of which ruined their crops. And now, they've just faced the warmest spring since records began and the sixth driest.
'For them, climate change isn't a distant warning: it's a reality they're living every day.'
Across Italy and Spain, olive oil prices shot up 50 per cent year-on-year in January 2024 following severe drought in 2022 and 2023.
Hotter, drier weather saw olive oil production in Spain - which is responsible for 40 per cent of the world's supply - fall by 50 per cent in 2022.
High temperatures in the spring blossoming season destroyed many olive trees, and the few surviving fruits grew small and thin because of the lack of water.
This May was the world's second warmest ever recorded, exceeded only by May 2024, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Parts of northwestern Europe saw their lowest precipitation and soil moisture levels since at least 1979.
Farmers across northern Europe have voiced fears for their crops, with unusually dry weather delaying the sprouting of wheat and corn.
Extreme weather sees price spikes for rice, coffee and cocoa
Food production in other parts of the world has also been affected by extreme weather, with knock-on effects on domestic and global markets.
Heatwaves across East Asia during 2024 led to unprecedented monthly temperatures across virtually all of South Korea and Japan, as well as large parts of China and India.
Government statistics indicate that these events resulted in substantial increases in the price of Korean cabbage (70 per cent higher in September 2024 compared to September 2023) and Japanese rice (48 per cent higher in September 2024 compared to September 2023).
With California accounting for over 40 per cent of US vegetable production, unprecedented drought across California and Arizona in 2022 contributed to an 80 per cent year-on-year increase in US vegetable producer prices by November 2022.
Ghana and the Ivory Coast produce nearly 60 per cent of global cocoa.
Record monthly temperatures across the majority of both countries in February 2024, on top of a prolonged drought in the prior year, led to increases in global market prices of cocoa of around 300 per cent by April 2024 compared to the previous year.
Similar effects were observed for coffee following heatwaves and drought in Vietnam and Brazil in 2024.
Extreme weather threatens food security and public health
The study highlights how these climate-driven food price spikes can also aggravate public health risks and social unrest.
Rising food prices have direct implications for food security, particularly for low-income households.
'These effects can be strongly regressive given the substantial disparities in the share of income spent on food by low- and high-income households,' the researchers write.
'The fact that larger price increases occur in hotter and typically poorer countries will further amplify these effects.'
Furthermore, price increases shift consumer spending towards cheaper, often less nutritious options.
This means climate-induced price increases could exacerbate the health problems deriving from malnutrition and a range of chronic diet-related conditions, including coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and many cancers.
The scientists also note that food price inflation associated with climate extremes may come to bear increasing political relevance, with anecdotal evidence from across history often citing food price increases as a precursor to political unrest and social upheaval. The report suggests that high rates of inflation can even directly alter election outcomes in modern democracies.
'People are noticing, with rising food prices number two on the list of climate impacts they see in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself,' Kotz notes, adding that it was clear the cost of living had played a role in last year's US election.
The price of food was listed as a key election issue during both the UK and US elections in 2024 and the elections in Argentina in 2023.
Urgent need for adaptation and resilience
The study concludes by urging the need for rapid adaptation and resilience to bolster food security.
It proposes seasonal to multi-annual climate predictions, which may offer farmers early warning of short-term exposure to climate extremes and their impact on yields.
'At the producer-level, timely information on climate conditions can enable optimisation of crop choices or scheduling to limit exposure and impacts,' the scientists write.
Agricultural adaptation strategies for the long term will also be vital, they say.
While crop switching and irrigation are widely discussed as a potential solution, challenges in their implementation have also been raised.
'This highlights the resource, economic and potentially political constraints which may often impede adaptation strategies, an area requiring careful consideration by research and policymakers to identify effective adaptation strategies,' the authors write.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

LeMonde
5 hours ago
- LeMonde
Donald Trump is on the verge of winning his trade war
When Donald Trump decided, in early spring, to abruptly suspend his unilateral tariffs after triggering a financial panic, the Financial Times published a sarcastic comment about the US president in early May, calling him "TACO" for "Trump always chickens out" in trade negotiations. This infuriated the head of state. "That's a nasty question," he said in the Oval Office of the White House after a journalist asked him about it. On July 15, Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip offered a less humorous but more direct evaluation: "Forget TACO. Trump is winning his trade war." The issue is not to defend Trump's trade policy – the WSJ called it "the dumbest trade war in history" – but to analyze whether the president is achieving the goals he set for himself. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, is set to meet the US head of state in Scotland on Sunday, July 27, in a last-ditch effort to reach a deal before the August 1 deadline to avoid 30% tariffs on European goods. The WSJ columnist recalled that the president's intention was to impose the highest possible tariffs to protect American industry and fund all or part of the income tax. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used the argument of tariffs as a negotiating tool in an attempt to reassure US partners. But that was not Trump's concern.


Euronews
5 hours ago
- Euronews
Orban vows to veto EU budget over frozen EU funds
The Hungarian government will not vote on the EU budget until Budapest receives its frozen EU funds, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in a speech at the Bálványos Free University on Saturday. According to Orban, the adoption of the EU's record-breaking budget requires unanimity. "And until we get our backlog of money, there will be no new European budget. We will bring it home, and we will not make any concessions on our sovereignty," he said. Approximately €9.5 billion in COVID-19 recovery funding and €8.4 billion in cohesion funds make up the frozen funds by Brussels over persisting concerns about Hungary's democratic backsliding. Brussels and Budapest over the years have been at loggerheads on a range of issues, most recently that of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the situation has been made worse by the financial issue. Orbán accuses the European Commission of "financial blackmail" and meddling in domestic matters due to its reasons for freezing the funds. Hungary previously unblocked about €10.2 billion of the frozen funds following the adoption of legislation aimed at reducing political meddling in its courts and strengthening judicial independence. However, a complaint was filed by the European Parliament against the EU Commission for its controversial decision to release the €10.2 billion ahead of a crucial summit. Some €18 billion remains frozen, with no signs or indication of progress, but in front of the large audience, Orban vowed to get the EU funds. Orban claims Trump helped avoid World War III The Commission's landmark €2 trillion long-term budget for 2028–2034 emphasises defence and economic competitiveness. For it to pass, it requires unanimous agreement among member states and must also be backed by Parliament, by a majority of its component members. In his speech in Tusványos on Saturday, Viktor Orbán said that the election of US President Donald Trump has helped the world to avoid a third world war for the time being, but the chances of its outbreak are still increasing. Orbán gave a speech with a sinister tone, touching on a variety of topics that included the war in Ukraine and the Fidesz party. The Hungarian PM blasted the EU for backing Ukraine and accused the EU leaders of dangerously waging a trade war with the Trump administration that Europe "cannot win." While some of his claims were typically outlandish, Orban received applause from the audience, with one attendee saying, "We got a very clear, very understandable vision from the Prime Minister. And we are not in an easy situation."
LeMonde
8 hours ago
- LeMonde
'If a dictator issued a call for tenders to reopen gulags, some consulting firms would be ready to bid'
The British daily Financial Times revealed in early July that Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a major consulting firm, had carried out an assignment for an American security company, commissioned by an Israeli think tank, on the "reconstruction of Gaza." The study discussed the displacement of 500,000 Palestinians and assessed proposals – if one dares call them that – to make to Gazans, weighing which would be most effective: $9,000 in cash or $5,000 and four years of rent. A plan conceived without the residents, for a reconstruction without the survivors, billed at several million dollars. BCG apologized, fired those responsible, and gave up its fee. That might have been enough, if not for the countless deaths, horrors and suffering. We could pretend to forget the McKinsey controversy in the United States, in which the consulting firm recommended increasing opioid dosages to drive up prices. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), this resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people from overdoses. Once again, the firm expressed its "deep" regrets and, in 2024, reached a settlement of nearly a billion dollars to avoid litigation. Those fond of calculations will appreciate the irony. We could settle for these acts of contrition. A moment of nausea, before moving on. But it would be more useful to ask what makes these scandals possible. Like all businesses, consulting firms have "processes." No one is staffed on a project without approval. No new client is accepted without a risk analysis. No work is done outside the rules of deontology. Poorly known codes These rules do exist: Some firms refuse to work for the sex, gambling, or tobacco industries, others avoid certain countries. All of them establish "Chinese walls," supposedly protecting against conflicts of interest. But unlike regulated professions (lawyers or certified public accountants) or those with formal codes (like journalists), these rules are rarely published and often little known even to the consultants themselves. Everything depends on self-regulation.