India's retail inflation may descend towards 2% or below by July: SBI Research
New Delhi [India], June 13 (ANI): Consume price inflation in India which eased to an over six-year low in May (at 2.82 per cent) is seen declining further towards 2 per cent, perhaps even lower, by July, according to a report SBI Research.
Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation moderated to 2.82 per cent in May, much below the consensus estimates to hit a 75-month low, driven chiefly due to softening food items, particularly vegetables and pulses which declined by 13.7 per cent and 8.2 per cent respectively.
'This, together with easing spices/meat and fish prices was however somewhat offset by elevated levels of fruits, Personal care and effects,' the report said. 'The positive development on headline front gets a tad masked though with the somewhat sticky nature of core inflation which edged up to 4.2 per cent, second-highest in last 19 months.'
SBI Research expects CPI Inflation average at 3.3-3.5 per cent in 2025-26, in turn allowing the central bank RBI some elbow room to navigate the 'evolving landscape with forbearance.'
Deciphering the state-wise inflation trends, the number of states/UTs inflation above 4 per cent has declined to 6 in May 2025, as against 32 States/UTs that had inflation above 4 per cent as in October 2024.
During October 2024 to May 2025, overall All India inflation declined by 3.38 per cent, expect Goa, where inflation increased by 2.09 per cent.
'We expect CPI inflation to remain below 4 per cent till Q3 FY26 while it may show some increase in the last quarter of the current fiscal. The benign inflationary expectations justify RBI's quest to support the momentum in capital formation for more durable growth,' SBI Research said.
The inflation rate is within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) manageable range of 2-6 per cent.
Retail inflation last breached the Reserve Bank of India's 6 per cent upper tolerance level in October 2024. Since then, it has been in the 2-6 per cent range, which the RBI considers manageable.
Food prices were a concern for Indian policymakers, who wished to sustain retail inflation around 4 per cent.
Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory well. The RBI held its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.5 per cent for the eleventh consecutive time, before cutting it first time in about five years in February 2025.
Analysts expect inflation to remain under control, allowing the RBI to focus on supporting economic growth. The recent 50 basis points repo cut was quite an indication.
The inflation outlook for the year 2025-26 has been revised downwards from RBI's earlier forecast of 4 per cent to 3.7 per cent.
SBI Research expects a pause in rate action here onwards till the December 2025 policy though a lot will depend upon incoming data. (ANI)
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
8 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Employee gets appraisal after one year but gets shock of his life when he looks at his salary
A deeply disillusioned professional took to Reddit's Indian Workplace community to vent about a distressing experience that left them emotionally shattered and financially frustrated. Their warning was simple yet powerful—avoid working for family-owned businesses, particularly the kind often called " Lala companies ," where decisions are often arbitrary and heavily skewed in favor of the individual had been employed at such a firm for over a year, patiently enduring difficult circumstances with the hope that annual appraisal season might bring some reward. When the time finally arrived, the increase they received was a meager Rs 1,200. Although clearly underwhelming, they tried to find solace in the idea that any increment, however small, was still progress. They convinced themselves to stay optimistic, choosing to focus on the fact that at least their salary was technically on the what followed turned that small relief into utter disappointment. It came to light that the company had failed to deduct Provident Fund (PF) contributions for years. Instead of acknowledging their error or offering a fair solution, management decided to retroactively deduct Rs 1,800 from the employee's next paycheck to "rectify" the mistake. With the increment at Rs 1,200 and the deduction being ₹1,800, the net impact on the new salary was a decrease of Rs 600. What was supposed to be an appraisal turned into a financial setback , making the situation feel both absurd and deeply post quickly gained traction on Reddit, resonating with many others who had experienced similar forms of exploitation. Numerous users chimed in with their own horror stories and harsh critiques of such workplaces. One commenter was shocked by the insultingly low increment and urged the original poster to start searching for a new job immediately, calling such firms abusive and user shared their ordeal of being offered a job with absolutely no salary hike and even having ₹1,000 held back from each monthly payment, to be paid out only after a year. Yet another added that their current position in a mid-sized pharmaceutical company—also run in a similar family-dominated manner—was plagued by incompetent leadership. Their manager, described as toxic and intellectually lacking, maintained job security simply because of a long-standing relationship with the owner, rather than actual merit.
Hindustan Times
13 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
'Prince William's billionaire friend': How US, UK media reported Karisma Kapoor's ex-husband Sanjay Kapur's death
To Bollywood audiences, Sunjay Kapur, who died on Thursday, may have been Karisma Kapoor's ex-husband, but to the wider international community, he was much more - an industrialist, a polo player, and a friend of royalty. The international media also reported Sunjay's death, but their focus was largely on his businesses and links to royalty, rather than the Bollywood connection. (Also read: Sunjay Kapur's funeral to be held in Delhi, but legal hurdle in getting body back to India) Sunjay Kapur died after suffering a heart attack while he was in the middle of a polo match in London on Thursday. The 53-year-old was a regular in the polo circles of the UK, which is how he came to be associated with Prince William. The Prince of Wales has been described as a friend of the late businessman. The New York Post's headline about Sunjay's death read: "Prince William's billionaire pal Sunjay Kapur dead after swallowing bee during polo match". People Magazine also focused on Sunjay's friendship with William and the bizarre reported nature of his death. "Prince William's friend dies after swallowing a bee at Windsor polo match," read their headline. The New York Times, however, highlighted his marriage to Karisma. Their headline read: "Sunjay Kapur, businessman and ex-husband of Bollywood star, dies at 53." Most British publications also mentioned Prince William in their reportage of the billionaire businessman's death. "Billionaire friend of Prince William dies from heart attack after 'swallowing a bee'," wrote the Daily Mail. Similarly, the Telegraph reported, "Billionaire friend of Prince of Wales dies after 'swallowing a bee'." Sunjay Kapur was the chairman of auto components maker Sona Comstar. After taking over as managing director of the company after his father's death in 2015, Sunjay spearheaded its expansion into China, Mexico, Serbia and the U.S. As per Bloomberg, Sona Comstar has a market cap of ₹31000 crore (nearly $4 billion). According to Forbes, Sunjay Kapur had a net worth of $1.2 billion ( ₹10300 crore) at the time of his death. The London-based Indian business tycoon had been married to Karisma Kapoor from 2003-16. The two have two children. Sunjay was previously married to fashion designer and stylist and Nandita Mahtani from 1996-2000. Since 2017, he had been married to model-turned-actor Priya Sachdev, with whom he had a son.
India Today
14 minutes ago
- India Today
Woman told to quit job for not working on projects she was never given
A Reddit post about a woman told to resign for not working on projects she was never assigned has sparked a sharp debate online, with users questioning workplace ethics and a now-viral Reddit post, a user shared the troubling experience of their friend who was abruptly asked to resign from her job, despite never being given any work in the first place. The company reportedly told her to submit her resignation by 2pm or face an automatic termination an hour graduated in 2024 and joined the company through campus placement in November. For the first six months, she underwent official training and was made a full-time employee only last month,' the post read. What followed next left her stunned.'She was never assigned to any project since training ended. Still, HR called her this morning and told her to resign because she had been on the bench for four months and lacked skills. But she was officially in training for most of that period,' the user said. The friend had been diligently attending internal upskilling sessions and never missed a single update, according to the post. With little clarity on whether to comply, escalate, or seek legal help, the user turned to the platform for guidance.'Has anyone else faced this kind of situation? What should she do now? Any legal or HR advice would be really appreciated,' the user said as they concluded their post. advertisementTake a look at the post here: The post opened the floodgates for reactions. One user urged her not to resign voluntarily. 'Let them initiate it. Gather proof of her training records and the lack of project assignments. If she resigns, compensation becomes tougher.'Another user called the move 'plainly illegal,' noting that resignation under pressure is not valid consent. 'If she wants to stay, she has every right to. Let the employer go through the official dismissal process,' the user said. Several users offered more pointed advice. 'Ask them for a proper notice period, 1 to 3 months. Don't just accept it quietly. Indian laws aren't ideal, but she should raise her voice. Also, check her employment contract. If there's no clause about termination without notice, they're in the wrong,' one of the users said. Others worried about the long-term impact. 'Won't a termination letter citing poor performance mess with her career?' a user the company's exact stance remains unknown, the post has resonated with several users who've faced similar treatment during layoffs or post-training probation. For now, the internet has come together to say one thing: being benched shouldn't mean being blindsided.
