Japan, US Can Reach Good Trade Deal, Bessent Tells Ishiba
'A good deal is more important than a rushed deal,' Bessent said following a meeting with Ishiba in Tokyo. 'A mutually beneficial trade agreement between the United States and Japan remains within the realm of possibility.'
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Morning Bid: Fizzy market week turns flat
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets A buoyant week for world markets driven by emerging U.S. trade deals with major economies has gone a bit flat into Friday, with the corporate earnings season throwing up a series of high profile disappointments. The interest rate backdrop also turned a shade darker, with the European Central Bank holding its 2% rate steady as expected but with some officials signalling that the bar was high for further easing. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations also continued to tick lower despite relentless political pressure, with futures markets now pricing in just 42 basis points of additional easing this year. * The S&P 500 and Nasdaq eked out marginal gains to new records on Thursday, with Alphabet leading the way after its earnings beat. But Tesla's troubles continued, as it dropped more than 8%. Meanwhile, IBM clocked an 8% earnings day drop, American Airlines fell 10% and Honeywell was off 6%. UnitedHealth lost 5% after a probe into its Medicare practises, and Intel lost 5% overnight on its update. Wall Street futures were flat ahead of Friday's bell. * The European earnings season was also pockmarked with some negative reactions to corporate updates, with shares in German sportswear maker Puma sliding 15% on Friday and French car parts maker Valeo down 9% as both cut full-year outlooks. European stock indexes were down about 0.5%. A rebound in British retail sales last month came in below forecasts too. * A packed diary next week includes the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings, key U.S. labor market updates, megacap earnings and a heavy Treasury debt auction schedule. Treasury yields were steady to a bit higher on Friday and the dollar nudged up too. Market Minute * Investors cashed out of highly valued global stocks on Friday and the dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop in a month ahead of a crucial week for markets that includes Donald Trump's tariff deadline and key central bank meetings. * U.S. President Donald Trump's trade deal with Tokyo opens scope for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year, sources say, a prospect the central bank may start to telegraph by offering a less gloomy view on the economic outlook. * South Korea's Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan met U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday and reaffirmed a commitment to reach a deal on tariffs by the August 1 deadline, South Korea's industry ministry said on Friday. * The optimism sweeping world stock markets following news of emerging and expected U.S. trade deals is undeniable and understandable. But, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever, it is also puzzling. * U.S. President Donald Trump sprang a double surprise on the copper market when he announced import tariffs of 50% effective next month. ROI metals columnist Andy Home notes that the market was betting on a different outcome. Weekend reads * GEN AI AND PRODUCTIVITY: The Generative AI boom shows encouraging signs of raising the productivity level of the wider economy, according to a Federal Reserve Board discussion paper. But the researchers conclude that GenAI's contribution to productivity growth will depend on the speed with which its benefits are obtained, and notes that historically it takes time for revolutionary technologies to be integrated into the economy. * SUBNATIONAL DEBTS: Debates about debt sustainability often only focus only on "sovereign" or central government balances and ignore a complex, growing role of subnational governments. In a piece on CEPR's VoxEU site, economists Sean Dougherty, Acaua Brochado and Pietrangelo de Biase point out how subnational government accounts for nearly 40% of public investment and more than a quarter of public spending. They argue these entities face tighter borrowing conditions, increasing investment responsibilities and market structures that often fail to price risk accurately. Left unaddressed, these dynamics could undermine both macro stability and government priorities. * DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY: Europe's systemic dependency on Big Tech's social-media platforms threatens the continent's digital sovereignty as policymakers argue there's little alternative. But, as developer Sebastian Vogelsang argues on Project Syndicate this week, this ignores the potential for building apps on open-source frameworks like the AT Protocol, the foundation for Bluesky. * 'SPY COCKROACHES'?: For Gundbert Scherf - the co-founder of Germany's Helsing, Europe's most valuable defence start-up - Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed everything. As Reuters' Supantha Mukherjee, Sarah Marsh and Christoph Steitz report, the Munich-based company more than doubled its valuation to $12 billion at a fundraising last month. Scherf - a former partner at McKinsey - says Europe may be on the cusp of a transformation in defence innovation akin to the Manhattan Project. * SYRIA'S ECONOMICS: A Reuters investigation found that Syria's new leadership is secretly restructuring an economy broken by corruption and years of sanctions against Assad's government, under the auspices of a group of men whose identities have until now been concealed under pseudonyms. Away from public scrutiny, the committee obtained assets worth more than $1.6 billion. That tally is based on accounts of people familiar with its deals to acquire business stakes and cash seizures, including at least $1.5 billion in assets taken from three businessmen and firms in a conglomerate once controlled by Assad's inner circle. Chart of the day With Fed policy under a microscope, attention switches to the labor market next week - culminating in the release of the national employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the economy added 102,000 non-farm payrolls this month - which would be the lowest monthly tally since February. However, the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed jobless claims last week fell to 217,000 - well below estimates - signaling continued resilience in the job market. Today's events to watch * U.S. June durable goods orders (8:30 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: Aon, HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Phillips 66, Centene * South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol and Minister for Trade Yeo Han-koo meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington * U.S. President Donald Trump makes private visit to Scotland -- Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (by Mike Dolan; editing by) Sign in to access your portfolio
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17 minutes ago
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Lennox International Second Quarter 2025 Earnings: Beats Expectations
Lennox International (NYSE:LII) Second Quarter 2025 Results Key Financial Results Revenue: US$1.50b (up 3.4% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$277.6m (up 13% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 19% (up from 17% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. EPS: US$7.86 (up from US$6.91 in 2Q 2024). AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Lennox International Revenues and Earnings Beat Expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 15%. Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Building industry in the US. Performance of the American Building industry. The company's shares are up 8.6% from a week ago. Valuation Following the latest earnings results, Lennox International may be overvalued based on 6 different valuation benchmarks we assess. Click here to find out what a fair price for the stock might be and where analysts see the share price heading over the next year. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
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27 minutes ago
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How Trump's mass deportations could backfire on the American economy by shrinking paychecks
President Donald Trump has promised to unleash an economic boom that will turbocharge growth, fatten paychecks and chip away at America's mountain of debt. However, a new analysis from Trump's alma mater suggests that his immigration crackdown – a centerpiece of his second term – could do the exact opposite. Trump's policy of mass deportations would shrink most worker paychecks, erode gross domestic product (GDP) and spike the already-massive federal government budget deficit, according to a Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis shared exclusively with CNN. 'There is no question the US economy will get smaller as you deport a lot of the workforce,' Kent Smetters, professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, said in an interview. 'You simply have fewer bodies to produce. Fewer people means a smaller economy.' During the 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to wage the biggest domestic deportation program in American history and eventually expel millions of people. The Penn Wharton analysis found that a four-year policy in which 10% of the nation's unauthorized immigrants are removed per year would increase federal deficits by $350 billion, reduce GDP by 1% and dent the average worker's wages. The higher deficits are driven by a combination of lost revenue and new spending required to make mass deportations possible – on top of the funding for border security, interior enforcement and deportations provided by the tax and spending cuts package Trump signed into law this month. If the immigration crackdown spanned 10 years, the cost to the federal government would rise to $987 billion, GDP would shrink by 3.3% and wages would tumble by 1.7%, researchers found. Why many workers could get hurt by deportations That's not to say all workers would be harmed by the mass deportations. Penn Wharton concluded that authorized, lower-skilled workers – including US-born ones – would get a pay bump due to less competition. Wages for those authorized, lower-skilled workers would jump by 5% by 2034, the analysis said. However, if deportations are reversed after four years, wages for authorized low-skilled workers would eventually drop. 'Part of the promise of deportation is that those left behind are supposed to be better off. In reality, it's a much more mixed result,' Smetters told CNN. Penn Wharton found that the outcome for high-skilled workers is clearer: They'd be worse off. That's because unauthorized, low-skilled workers complement higher-skilled workers, defined in the analysis as native-born citizens, permanent residents and visa-holding immigrants with at least some college education. Higher-skilled workers 'are generally harmed by deportation more than authorized lower-skilled workers are helped,' the Penn Wharton analysis found, adding that higher-skilled workers have a bigger impact on paychecks and GDP and contribute more to taxes. High-skilled workers would suffer a $2,764 loss in annual wages on average if the immigration crackdown spanned 10 years, Smetters said. 'If you're middle class to higher income, you're going to be hurt by deportation because you rely on lower-skilled workers to make your job easier and to make your life more comfortable,' Smetters said. Many farmworkers are unauthorized For instance, he pointed to office workers who are helped by lower-skilled employees who clean buildings, do security and help transport people. Lower-skilled workers, at times unauthorized, play central roles in various industries, including construction, restaurants and manufacturing. This is especially true in agriculture. Between 2020 and 2022, about 39% of crop farmworkers were US citizens, while 19% were authorized immigrants. That means the rest – 42% – held no work authorization, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 'There are a lot of jobs in the US that native-born people don't want – and foreign-born people are happy to have,' said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research. The White House pushed back against the Penn Wharton findings. 'These sort of pedantic analyses miss the forest for the trees by not accounting for the immense costs that everyday Americans are forced to bear due to illegal immigration: violent crime, rising housing costs, eroding social trust and even the overbearing of emergency rooms,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to CNN. Desai pointed to research that finds more than one in ten young adults in the United States are neither employed, pursuing higher education nor in vocational training. 'There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force,' Desai said, 'and President Trump's agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this administration's commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential to build America's next Golden Age while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws.' It's true that some young people are having trouble finding jobs. The unemployment rate for those aged 20 to 24 stands at 8.2% as of June – more than twice as high as the national rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 'We need immigration' However, it's also true that America's aging population creates real challenges for the economy and businesses. Economists fear that as Baby Boomers continue to retire, businesses will struggle to find workers, a problem that would be compounded by a loss of foreign-born workers. Roth, the Wolfe Research economist, worries that mass deportations, along with the Trump administration's decision to terminate the legal status of hundreds of thousands of migrants, will cause some worker shortages and lift prices for consumers. 'We need immigration. Foreign-born workers are critical to the labor force – especially in this environment where the population is aging,' Roth said. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said the Penn Wharton study 'illuminates just how critical rational immigration policy is to the wellbeing of the American economy.' He said the United States needs comprehensive immigration reform that features cross-border migration to support the labor needs of manufacturing, construction, agriculture and household maintenance as well as leisure and hospitality. The study 'strongly implies that the current path of immigration policy is not economically sustainable nor supportive of growth or narrowing budget deficits,' Brusuelas said. 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