What To Expect From Alcoa's Q2?

Forbes

11-07-2025

Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. Consensus earnings are estimated to be approximately $0.51 per share, while revenues are projected to increase by nearly 2% compared to the same quarter last year. The company's results expectations are influenced by tariff disruptions, mixed performance among business units, and uncertain aluminum demand—slightly offset by sturdy alumina margins and effective internal cost management. The Alumina segment is anticipated to remain robust, benefiting from steady demand and advantageous cost structures. Meanwhile, the Aluminum segment faces pressure from elevated costs and weakness in global pricing, particularly affected by the tariff burden.
The company has a current market capitalization of $7.9 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months reached $13 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 billion in operating profits and net income of $860 million. That being said, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio provides an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Alcoa's Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not applicable if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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