Buy Now or Pay More Later? ‘Macroeconomic Uncertainty' Has Shoppers Anxious

WIRED

09-05-2025

May 9, 2025 10:00 AM President Trump's tariffs have started pushing prices higher. Tech giants and ecommerce strategists offer some clues on when to buy. Photo-illustration: WIRED Staff; Getty Images
Buying something before you absolutely need it isn't always affordable. But if there were ever a time to consider making an early investment, this would be it. President Donald Trump's tariffs are beginning to nudge prices higher on products from high-end strollers to cheap smartphone chargers.
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The Trump administration has suggested the tariffs are a negotiating tactic. Some could be eliminated as the US makes deals with other countries. That means US shoppers willing to wait out the current chaos could end up getting a better deal.
I have been wondering what to do here myself. As a new dad, my family will need a new car seat early next year, and these plastic buckets, which generally must be bought new, don't come cheap—even under normal circumstances. For clues on how to navigate the dilemma of buying now or later, I have been collecting thoughts from experts in the online shopping industry.
One of the first lessons I learned doing this research was that if I decided to buy in advance, I wouldn't be alone. 'To some extent, we've seen some heightened buying in certain categories that may indicate stocking up in advance of any potential tariff impact,' Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on an earnings call last week. eBay also said it saw signs of what could be prebuying, though it didn't specify which products people are stocking up on.
On the other hand, there are hints that most consumers have been holding out for now. This time of year tends to be relatively quiet for sales of iPhones and other Apple products, and that's been true to date in 2025, CEO Tim Cook said on the company's earning call last week. Mastercard's earning comments also said that shoppers were spending the expected amount. And Etsy even saw a drop in the total value of merchandise sold as customers held back on gifts and trinkets.
So if other consumers are a guide, I could go either way with my car seat purchase. What about prices? As the impact of tariffs started to hit last week, Amazon's Jassy said that prices on the platform hadn't surged 'appreciably' so far. He added that Amazon was 'maniacally focused' on keeping prices down. It helps that Amazon has a global network of competing suppliers and merchants. For example, if one seller raises prices, another may hold theirs steady to gain market share, Jassy said. 'Customers are going to have a better chance of finding variety on selection and on lower prices when they come here,' he added.
Jassy didn't touch on illicit tactics, including tariff evasion, that could keep the prices of imported products artificially low. But several ecommerce strategists who help companies sell products on Amazon tell WIRED that factories and distributors in Asia are admitting to new attempts to skirt tariffs, including by underdeclaring the value of shipments to US customs officials. 'It's always been an unfair playing field, and now they are pushing the envelope even more,' says Dave Bryant, cofounder of EcomCrew.
Amazon spokesperson Jessica Martin says sellers 'are required to follow all applicable laws and regulations when importing items for sale.'
The government losing out on tariff revenue isn't great, but name a shopper that's going to fret at the trade-off of more affordable prices, Bryant says. He and other strategists agree with Jassy that competitive items—think household goods or generic party favors—are unlikely to skyrocket in price on Amazon. More boutique offerings, though, could grow more expensive because of tariffs.
Some of those increases appear to be materializing. In mid-April, the average price of goods on Amazon was higher than the previous 90 days in nine out of 27 categories monitored by the price-tracking firm Keepa, according to a WIRED analysis. By this past Wednesday, the number of categories with higher prices shot up to 24. Industrial items, tools, and baby products experienced some of the biggest jumps, with average price increases of around 2.5 percent to 5 percent. More increases are coming later this month, including reportedly a bump of $20 or more for the Graco car seat that I have been eyeing.
The big question is how much worse will those increases get. The steepest tariffs—those on Chinese imports—could more than double the price of affected products. Normally, Amazon restricts sellers that make drastic price hikes. But it has been allowing for increases of about 10 percent a week in certain cases, roughly five times more than the previous limit, according to Jason Boyce, CEO and founder of ecommerce strategy company Avenue7Media. That means significant surges could come in days and weeks, not months, adding pressure on consumers like me to make decisions sooner rather than later.
Martin, the Amazon spokesperson, says prices have not changed outside of usual fluctuations and that the platform's pricing policy continues to apply.
The last factor at play in the when-to-buy dilemma is the chance of a resolution. If you trust the vibes that some big tech platforms are publicly expressing, there is some optimism in the air about averting crisis-level prices
Companies are buying online ads to market their products like it's 'mostly business as usual,' Reddit chief operating officer Jen Wong said on an earnings call last week. Typically, marketing budgets would be an early casualty for companies trying to cut expenses and keep their prices low. Wong's comments echoed those of executives from other leading online ad sellers, including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta. The positive outlook has been encouraging to Wall Street—the US stock market is trending up as if tariff-fueled price hikes aren't going to dissuade all of us from shopping in the coming months.
But Trump and the outcomes of negotiations between the US and its trading partners are unpredictable. 'Obviously, none of us knows exactly where tariffs will settle or when,' Amazon's Jassy said in his comments last week. CEOs and their chief financial officers have taken to calling this reality 'macroeconomic uncertainty.' The phrase has been uttered on 222 companies' earnings calls already this year, up from 178 in all of last year, according to a WIRED review of transcripts from financial data company AlphaStreet.
Some companies have been trying to create certainty when it comes to Trump and his trade policies since his first presidential term. Apple attempted to control its costs by shifting some of its manufacturing out of China, which has long been Trump's top target for tariffs. But this time around Trump has applied tariffs to every country imaginable, including an island inhabited solely by penguins.
Exemptions remain another hope for companies and their customers. Last week, baby monitor maker Nanit led a rally in New York City urging for a tariffs reprieve for baby products. This week, Trump and his treasury secretary both said they were considering it, though Trump added that he preferred not to have too many exemptions.
Nanit's Malaysia-made monitors—it abandoned China during Trump's first term— are subject to 10 percent tariffs at the moment. The levy could grow to 24 percent or more come July under the president's current plans. Nanit CEO, Anushka Salinas, says her goal is to avoid price increases as her company tries to grow its base of 1 million monthly users. It helps to have supportive investors who could step in with additional funding. The startup's subscription-based software, a business line that tends to have wider profit margins, also gives it some financial cushioning.
But the higher the tariffs go, the more challenging it will become to avoid a price increase. Salinas personally made the call to buy a bed for her 4-year-old sooner than she would have otherwise. I made a similar choice. A car seat I don't need until next year is arriving tomorrow. Better $200 now than $500 later.