logo
Gold extends losses after trade deal hopes curb safe-haven demand

Gold extends losses after trade deal hopes curb safe-haven demand

Zawya24-07-2025
Gold prices extended losses on Thursday from the previous session as easing trade tensions increased risk sentiment and weighed on demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,362.59 per ounce, as of 0930 GMT, after shedding 1.3% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.9% to $3,367.30. Following this week's trade deal between the U.S. and Japan, two European diplomats said on Wednesday the European Union and the U.S. are also edging toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and exemptions.
"Gold is down this morning due to the positive news flow around global trade... this is reducing downside risks for global growth and supports the prevailing risk-on mood in financial markets," said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.
The trade expectations meanwhile drove risk sentiment in the global financial markets propelling stocks to fresh record highs.
"Demand from safe-haven seekers has cooled while central bank buying stays sound, even though not as strong as earlier in the year. We still expect gold to move higher in the longer term," Menke said.
A safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainties, gold also tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. U.S. President Donald Trump will visit the Federal Reserve on Thursday, the White House said, which could intensify tensions between the administration and the central bank.
The Fed's policy meeting, scheduled for July 29-30, is expected to maintain interest rates within their current range. Investors anticipate the central bank will resume rate cuts in September. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is also expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday.
Spot silver slipped 0.7% to $39.02 per ounce, while palladium dipped 2% to $1,252.70.
Platinum fell 2.5% to $1,376.45, its lowest in more than a week.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Wall Street's jitters highlight case for global diversification
Wall Street's jitters highlight case for global diversification

Arabian Post

time24 minutes ago

  • Arabian Post

Wall Street's jitters highlight case for global diversification

Apprehension has returned to US stock markets, and the reasons are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Many asset allocators I speak with are questioning valuations that appear stretched and overly reliant on a handful of technology giants. Although the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 reached fresh highs just last week, the rally already feels vulnerable. Outside the United States, sentiment is notably more optimistic. In Europe, Asia, and across several key emerging markets, investors are finding better value and a wider range of opportunities. ADVERTISEMENT There's growing interest in cyclical and defensive sectors that are trading at more reasonable levels. Allocators are beginning to shift their focus globally in search of better-priced assets and broader exposure. Bond markets have remained relatively calm. Both US Treasuries and UK gilts continue to offer yields that are comfortably above inflation, which is a positive for those seeking stable income. This is particularly noteworthy given the large volume of new debt that both governments are expected to issue in the coming months. Despite the supply pressures, yields have remained steady, which suggests there is still confidence in these instruments. Gold is another asset that continues to reflect a more cautious outlook. Prices remain close to all-time highs. This signals ongoing demand for safe havens, especially as political risk and long-term inflation concerns linger in the background. However, the single biggest driver of uncertainty in markets right now is trade policy. Tariffs are back in focus, and the outlook is murky at best. ADVERTISEMENT We should not expect clarity on the final shape of US trade policy until well into 2026. Many of the recent bilateral agreements signed by the United States, including those with the UK and the European Union, are little more than frameworks for future discussion. They do not provide investors or businesses with the certainty they need to plan ahead. Last Friday, Washington announced a new 39 percent tariff on certain Swiss imports, a move that has already prompted calls from Switzerland for renegotiation. At the same time, the existing US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, signed in 2020, is only guaranteed for another 90 days. Talks to extend or amend it are still ongoing, and the outcome remains unclear. We also do not yet understand the full implications of these new trade measures on corporate earnings, global growth, or inflation. The numbers themselves are higher than many had expected. According to Yale University's Budget Lab, the average tariff now being implemented sits around 18.3 percent. For months, the consensus had been that the figure would hover near 10 percent. That expectation has now been upended. What complicates the picture further is the weak economic data coming out of the United States. Last Friday's payroll report showed a decline in manufacturing jobs. In response, President Trump dismissed the head of the government's labour statistics office, a move that raised eyebrows. Then came a disappointing ISM services survey, which pointed to contraction in the services sector. This followed five consecutive months of contraction in the ISM manufacturing index. Taken together, this makes for an uneasy backdrop to Wall Street's high valuations. While recent second quarter earnings were relatively strong and prompted some upward revisions in forecasts, those upgrades are now under pressure. If incoming data continues to disappoint, it is likely that we will see some of those expectations revised downward. In this environment, investors would do well to maintain a globally diversified approach. Concentrating capital in a single region or sector that appears strong today carries risks that may not be fully visible until sentiment turns. Exposure across different geographies and industries can help reduce vulnerability to localized shocks. Many European and Asian markets are not only more attractively priced but are also less exposed to the fallout from US trade policy. Emerging markets offer the potential for growth that is driven more by domestic demand than by global trade flows. For private investors in particular, well-constructed multi-asset funds remain an effective way to access this broader set of opportunities. These vehicles are designed to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns over time and tend to offer more diversification than an individual investor could achieve alone. The current market environment is a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift. High valuations, policy uncertainty, and mixed economic data are a potent combination. Rather than chase short-term gains, long-term investors should remain focused on balance, discipline, and diversification. Now is the time to think globally, act selectively, and prepare for a wide range of outcomes. Nigel Green is deVere CEO and Founder Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.

Safe-haven gold touches 2-week peak on trade tensions, rate cut hopes
Safe-haven gold touches 2-week peak on trade tensions, rate cut hopes

Zawya

timean hour ago

  • Zawya

Safe-haven gold touches 2-week peak on trade tensions, rate cut hopes

Gold rose to an over two-week high on Thursday, buoyed by safe haven demand after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs went into effect and U.S. jobs data added to rate-cut expectations. Spot gold gained 0.6% to $3,388.09 per ounce as of 0956 a.m. ET (13:56 GMT), after hitting its highest level since July 23 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures added nearly 0.7% to $3,455.60. "Ongoing trade tensions, and heightened geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the market with the safe haven interest," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Trump's higher tariffs on imports from a slew of countries came into effect on Thursday, leaving some trade partners like Switzerland, Brazil and India scrambling to reach a better deal. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up to a one-month high last week, hinting at some easing in the U.S. labor market. The data is supportive of rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, said Grant, adding "if the (U.S.) data continue to show weakness, we could see more dovish expectations develop and that is generally supportive to gold as well." Gold, used as a store of value during economic and geopolitical uncertainty, also tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment. Last week, weaker U.S. payrolls data boosted rate cut bets, with the market now pricing in an over 91% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, as per CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Three Fed officials sounded the alarm on a weakening U.S. labour market, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday saying two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by year-end is reasonable. Spot silver rose 1.5% to $38.40 per ounce, its highest since July 25, platinum was up 0.2% at $1,335.60 and palladium gained 2.5% to $1,159.93. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)

Trump may look like he's winning the trade war, but hurdles remain
Trump may look like he's winning the trade war, but hurdles remain

Khaleej Times

time3 hours ago

  • Khaleej Times

Trump may look like he's winning the trade war, but hurdles remain

At a glance, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be winning the trade war he unleashed after returning to the White House in January, bending major trading partners to his will, imposing double-digit tariff rates on nearly all imports, narrowing the trade deficit, and raking in tens of billions of dollars a month in much-needed cash for federal government coffers. Significant hurdles remain, however, including whether U.S. trading partners will make good on investment and goods-purchase commitments, how much tariffs will drive up inflation or stymie demand and growth, and whether the courts allow many of his ad-hoc levies to stand. On inauguration day, the effective U.S. tariff rate was about 2.5%. It has since jumped to somewhere between 17% and 19%, according to a range of estimates. The Atlantic Council estimates it will edge closer to 20%, the highest in a century, with higher duties taking effect on Thursday. Trading partners have largely refrained from retaliatory tariffs, sparing the global economy from a more painful tit-for-tat trade war. Data on Tuesday showed a 16% narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit in June, while the U.S. trade gap with China shrank to its smallest in more than 21 years. American consumers have shown themselves to be more resilient than expected, but some recent data indicate the tariffs are already affecting jobs, growth and inflation. "The question is, what does winning mean?" said Josh Lipsky, who heads economic studies at the Atlantic Council. "He's raising tariffs on the rest of the world and avoiding a retaliatory trade war far easier than even he anticipated, but the bigger question is what effect does that have on the U.S. economy." Michael Strain, head of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said Trump's geopolitical victories could prove hollow. "In a geopolitical sense, Trump's obviously getting tons of concessions from other countries, but in an economic sense, he's not winning the trade war," he said. "What we're seeing is that he is more willing to inflict economic harm on Americans than other countries are willing to inflict on their nations. And I think of that as losing." Kelly Ann Shaw, a White House trade adviser during Trump's first term who is now a partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer Feld, said a still-strong economy and near-record-high stock prices "support a more aggressive tariff strategy." But Trump's tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and policies to boost energy production would take time to play out. "I think history will judge these policies, but he is the first president in my lifetime to make major changes to the global trading system," she added. Deals so far Trump has concluded eight framework agreements with the European Union, Japan, Britain, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines that impose tariffs on their goods ranging from 10% to 20%. That's well short of the "90 deals in 90 days" administration officials had touted in April, but they account for some 40% of U.S. trade flows. Adding in China, currently saddled with a 30% levy on its goods but likely to win another reprieve from even higher tariffs before an August 12 deadline, would raise that to nearly 54%. Deals aside, many of Trump's tariff actions have been mercurial. On Wednesday he ratcheted up pressure on India, doubling new tariffs on goods from there to 50% from 25% because of its imports of oil from Russia. The same rate is in store for goods from Brazil, after Trump complained about its prosecution of former leader Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. And Switzerland, which Trump had previously praised, is facing 39% tariffs after a conversation between its leader and Trump derailed a deal. Ryan Majerus, a trade lawyer who worked in both the first Trump administration and the Biden government, said what's been announced so far fails to address "longstanding, politically entrenched trade issues" that have bothered U.S. policymakers for decades, and getting there would likely take "months, if not years." He also noted they lack specific enforcement mechanisms for the big investments announced, including $550 billion for Japan and $600 billion for the EU. Promises and risks Critics lit into European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after she agreed to a 15% tariff during a surprise meeting with Trump during his trip to Scotland last month, while gaining little in return. The deal frustrated winemakers and farmers, who had sought a zero-for-zero tariff. Francois-Xavier Huard, head of France's FNIL national dairy sector federation, said 15% was better than the threatened 30%, but would still cost dairy farmers millions of euros. European experts say von der Leyen's move did avert higher tariffs, calmed tensions with Trump, averting potentially higher duties on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and cars, while making largely symbolic pledges to buy $750 billion of U.S. strategic goods and invest over $600 billion. Meeting those pledges will fall to individual EU members and companies, and cannot be mandated by Brussels, trade experts and analysts note. U.S. officials insist Trump can re-impose higher tariffs if he believes the EU, Japan or others are not honoring their commitments. But it remains unclear how that would be policed. And history offers a caution. China, with its state-run economy, never met its modest purchase agreements under Trump's Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal. Holding it to account proved difficult for the subsequent Biden administration. "All of it is untested. The EU, Japan and South Korea are going to have to figure out how to operationalize this," Shaw said. "It's not just government purchases. It's getting the private sector motivated to either make investments or back loans, or to purchase certain commodities." And lastly, the main premise for the tariffs Trump has imposed unilaterally faces legal challenges. His legal team met with stiff questioning during appellate court oral arguments over his novel use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, historically used for sanctioning enemies or freezing their assets, to justify his tariffs. A ruling could come any time and regardless of the outcome seems destined to be settled ultimately by the Supreme Court.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store