The only trade certainty is uncertainty

Axios

18 hours ago

The latest U.S. trade deal with China may let the economy take a brief breather, but it's far from being able to relax.
Why it matters: Months of real-time uncertainty are being replaced with longer-term uncertainty, with trade policy living on three-to-six-month cycles that make business planning a nightmare.
The big picture: Tariffs are still in place, prices are still (at least anecdotally) rising, and deal deadlines with dozens of countries still loom over the summer.
Stocks may have priced in the TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") trade, but that doesn't help companies planning their operations.
So-called hard economic data — inflation, jobs — remains strong. But the anecdotes, the real-world commentary from businesses, are getting more negative by the month.
"We have members now that the tariff alone will cause them to go bankrupt. The margins are so tight on their product that they can't pass the price on, and they get caught," Ross Perot Jr., the new chairman of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told Axios this week.
Indexes that measure trade policy uncertainty are almost literally off the charts, and surging again after a brief respite last month.
Catch up quick: The U.S. and China agreed to a trade deal in Geneva in mid-May, which both sides almost immediately ignored.
This week's London deal is supposed to cement actually implementing the May agreement, including faster Chinese approvals of rare earths exports and relaxed U.S. export controls on software and jet parts.
Yes, but: The London deal was barely 12 hours old when the Wall Street Journal reported the Chinese would only approve the rare earths export licenses for six months at a time.
For the makers of the hundreds of products with components that require rare earths, six months of certainty is an improvement — but also the start of an expensive race to stockpile parts before it all turns over again.
Zoom in: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved the goalposts even further Wednesday, when he told a House panel it was " highly likely" the current pause on reciprocal tariffs would be extended for countries in talks.
Hours later, President Trump told reporters he could extend the deadline if he wanted, but didn't think it was necessary, because the U.S. was getting ready to send out " take it or leave it" offers instead.
What looked like a firm, universal July 8 deadline for dozens of countries now becomes a fungible, case-by-case affair.
The intrigue: There's also the ongoing question of whether those tariffs are even legal or not.
A federal court said no in late May, but an appellate court has stayed that ruling until at least the end of July.
Administration officials say they have a Plan B if the courts ultimately strike down the current regime, raising the prospect of the global economy having to start over in the fall with a whole new program.
By the numbers: The lingering uncertainty isn't really showing up in stocks, which remain near all-time highs, but the stress is unmistakable elsewhere.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a basket of the dollar against other major currencies, has moved relentlessly lower even as stocks rallied. It remains the strongest example yet of the " sell America" trade that began in earnest in April, as investors seek safer havens elsewhere.
"The US dollar remains a key barometer of trade sentiment, and its failure to extend higher in the wake of the so-called deal with China was telling. Now, it's under increased selling pressure once more, with the dollar index looking poised to hit a fresh 3-year low," Convera's lead currency and macro strategist George Vessey wrote Thursday morning.
The bottom line: It's impossible to plan ahead with confidence in an economy like this.