Why Trump faces toughest House GOP test yet on budget blueprint
President Trump has succeeded in uniting House Republicans ahead of a number of high-stakes votes this year — the Speaker's race, the House-crafted budget resolution and a government funding bill — cajoling skeptical GOP lawmakers into backing the efforts despite their qualms.
But this time around, the president may not have the same impact.
Wednesday's looming House vote on the Senate's framework for advancing Trump's legislative agenda is shaping up to be one of the president's toughest tests yet on Capitol Hill, as hardline Republicans dismiss the White House's public — and private — entreaties to line up behind the measure that will unlock the process to enact tax cuts, border funding and energy policy.
Trump has been running a full-court press when it comes to lobbying. The president hosted a meeting with some holdouts at the White House Tuesday afternoon, has fired off a number of Truth Social posts calling on Republicans to back the measure, and gave hardliners a stern talking to during the National Republican Congressional Committee's (NRCC) fundraiser Tuesday evening.
'They have to do this. We have to get there. I think we are there. We had a great meeting today,' Trump, donned in a bow tie, said at the dinner in Washington. 'But just in case there are a couple of Republicans out there. You just gotta get there. Close your eyes and get there. It's a phenomenal bill. Stop grandstanding. Just stop grandstanding.'
Officials with the White House's Office of Legislative Affairs have also been making calls to House Republicans, a source told The Hill.
For now, however, those tactics are not working. Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — who was at the White House meeting — and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) reiterated Wednesday morning that they will vote against the legislation when it hits the floor, digging in on their opposition hours before the measure is scheduled to hit the floor.
'I will not support this on the floor,' Norman said during a Rules Committee meeting. 'It doesn't make financial sense.'
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who attended the NRCC dinner and listened to the president's remarks, told The Hill Tuesday night that despite the president's sharp words, he could not get behind the budget resolution.
'I support DJT however the Senate plan is a joke, not serious and offensive,' he said in a text message.
Reps. Keith Self (R-Texas), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, have also said they are opposed to the legislation, among others.
That opposition is sure to spark alarm bells for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who can only afford to lose three GOP votes and still adopt the budget resolution, assuming united Democratic opposition and full attendance. The Speaker wants to get the measure over the finish line before the House breaks for a two-week recess on Thursday to celebrate Passover and Easter.
But the hardening resistance is also a concerning dynamic for Trump, who is looking to maintain his influence over the ideologically diverse Republican conference — and is at risk seeing that grip weaken.
The president did, for his part, notch two victories on Tuesday in getting Reps. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) to support the budget resolution. Steube had previously declared himself undecided.
But at roughly every other turn of the budget resolution saga, the president has been brushed aside by hardliners.
First, Harris, the Freedom Caucus chair, declined an invitation to meet with Trump at the White House on Tuesday, signaling that he had no appetite to be strong-armed by the president on the resolution.
'There's nothing that I can hear at the White House that I don't understand about the situation,' Harris told reporters ahead of the meeting. 'It's not going to help getting enough votes to pass this this week. It's just there too many members who are just not going to vote for it, no matter what.'
Then, after the meeting, some attendees say they had not been swayed.
'The math still doesn't add up,' Roy, one of the most outspoken critics of the Senate's blueprint, said after the meeting. 'The Senate budget still, in my view, produces significant deficits.'
The apparent willingness among the hardline conservatives to brush aside Trump's lobbying is a newfound stance in 119th Congress for House Republicans, after those very tactics helped move votes in the beginning months of the term.
Most recently in March, Trump's endorsement of a government funding bill got all but one Republican on board despite initial skepticism after calling some of the holdouts in the final hours before the vote.
The president successfully utilized the same playbook in February, when he helped House GOP leaders muscle their budget resolution through the chamber after opposition mounted. His intervention made for a dramatic scene on the House floor: Three GOP lawmakers initially planned to vote against the legislation when it came to the floor, prompting leaders to keep a prior vote open for more than an hour as they lobbied, then cancel it altogether when the hardliners remained unmoved.
Shortly after, however, leaders brought the measure back to the floor and it was adopted. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), one of the final holdouts, cited a 'personal commitment' from Trump as one of the reasons why she changed her stance.
And in January, during the first vote of the 119th Congress, Trump spoke to two of the holdouts just off the House floor after they voted for someone other than the Speaker. After those conversations, the hardliners backed the Louisiana Republican.
But as of now, that past does not seem to be dictating prologue, as hardliners say they will not relent to the president's strong-arming — at least for now.
'Totally appreciate the president, where he stands on this,' Ogles said on Tuesday, But, he argued, the Senate's 'proposal is a joke.'
As Wednesday's early-evening vote nears, Trump could ramp up his lobbying efforts by calling the critics directly, a strategy he has successfully executed in the past. Asked Wednesday morning if he expected Trump to call the holdouts, Johnson said the president offered to do so but noted that he did not want it to get to that point.
'I hope it doesn't come to that,' he told Politico.
The opposition among hardline conservatives is rooted in two parts of the Senate's budget resolution.
Lawmakers have expressed exasperation that the blueprint includes different spending cut minimums for each chamber. House committees, for example, are directed to find at least $1.5 trillion in cuts to federal spending, while Senate panels are mandated to slash at least $4 billion in federal spending — a large discrepancy.
Those on the right-flank have sounded off on the Senate's use of the budgetary gimmick known as current policy baseline to permanently extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts. The idea assumes that the extension of the tax cuts would not add anything to the deficit despite the Joint Committee on Taxation estimating it could cost around $4 billion.
'The House passed our budget resolution weeks ago with $1.5-2 trillion in cuts over ten years. The Senate's $4 billion cuts over the same ten years is an unserious attempt to right our economic ship. Promising to fight 'next time' is futile when 'next time' never arrives,' Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz) wrote on X.
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