Stocks Slip Before the Open After Mixed Tariff News, Alphabet Earnings on Tap
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.59%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.79% this morning as mixed signals from the Trump administration prompted investors to temper their expectations for swift progress in resolving the U.S.-China tariff dispute.
U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. is going to have a fair deal with China, adding late Wednesday that the country could be assigned a new tariff rate within the next two to three weeks. At the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump has not proposed removing U.S. tariffs on China on a unilateral basis. Also, China's Commerce Ministry said on Thursday that no negotiations have taken place on economic and trade matters, and urged the U.S. to remove all unilateral tariffs if it truly aims to resolve problems between the two nations.
In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's major indexes closed sharply higher. Tesla (TSLA) climbed over +5% after CEO Elon Musk said he would 'significantly' scale back his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency. Also, chip stocks rallied on hopes for easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising more than +6% and GlobalFoundries (GFS) gaining over +4%. In addition, Boeing (BA) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the beleaguered planemaker reported a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss. On the bearish side, Enphase Energy (ENPH) tumbled over -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting downbeat Q1 results and issuing weak Q2 revenue guidance.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.7 in April, stronger than expectations of 49.0. Also, U.S. March new home sales rose +7.4% m/m to a 6-month high of 724K, stronger than expectations of 684K. At the same time, the U.S. S&P Global services PMI fell to 51.4 in April, weaker than expectations of 52.8.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, with uncertainty surrounding international trade widespread across all districts. Tariffs were mentioned 107 times in the Fed report, more than twice the count recorded in the previous Beige Book. The report stated that the outlook in several regions 'worsened considerably' as economic uncertainty grew. 'Prices increased across districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest and six characterizing it as moderate, similar to the previous report,' according to the Beige Book. The report also said that employment was little changed to up slightly.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Wednesday during a Q&A session after her speech that she does not support making any adjustments to interest rates. 'There's still a lot of uncertainty around how policies are going to play out and what those impacts are going to be. This is not a good time to be preemptive. This is a good time to sit and wait and watch,' Hammack said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.9% probability of no rate change and a 6.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.
First-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from major companies today, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Procter & Gamble (PG), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Gilead (GILD), and Intel (INTC). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast March Durable Goods Orders at +2.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.3% m/m, compared to the prior figures of +0.9% m/m and +0.7% m/m, respectively.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week's number of 215K.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be released today as well. Economists foresee the March figure standing at 4.14M, compared to 4.26M in February.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.349%, down -0.87%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.79% this morning, giving back some of the previous day's gains as investors digest mixed corporate earnings reports while trade uncertainty persists. Luxury stocks slumped on Thursday, with Kering (KER.FP) falling over -4% after the luxury group posted weaker-than-expected Q1 sales. A survey released on Thursday showed that German business morale unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high in April, likely reflecting firms' approval of government initiatives to boost defense spending and investments. Separately, data from the statistics agency Insee showed that France's household confidence indicator held steady in April. Meanwhile, the situation regarding tariffs on China remains uncertain after Beijing stated that no economic and trade negotiations have taken place and urged the U.S. to remove all unilateral tariff measures if it genuinely seeks a resolution, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously noted that President Trump would not act unilaterally. In other corporate news, BNP Paribas SA (BNP.P.DX) slid over -4% after reporting a drop in Q1 profit. At the same time, Adidas AG (ADS.D.DX) rose more than +1% after the German sportswear and apparel maker reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results.
Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index and France's Consumer Confidence data were released today.
The German April Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 86.9, stronger than expectations of 85.1.
The French April Consumer Confidence stood at 92, stronger than expectations of 91.
Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.03%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.49%.
China's Shanghai Composite Index closed just above the flatline today as sentiment remained cautious after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on a swift resolution to the U.S.-China trade war. Bank stocks gained ground on Thursday, while software and hardware stocks underperformed. While Washington indicated a willingness to ease trade tensions with Beijing, Bessent noted that U.S. President Donald Trump would not act unilaterally, adding that formal negotiations have yet to start. Kenny Tang, chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators, said, 'The timetable is unclear, and that means the negotiations could take very long.' Meanwhile, China issued the first batch of special sovereign bonds for the year, as part of the stimulus measures introduced by authorities to mitigate the impact of ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. In other news, China's state regulator and planning council released an updated version of its 'negative list,' easing entry barriers into the world's second-largest economy by lowering the number of restricted industries to 106 from 117. Investors are looking ahead to the upcoming month-end politburo meeting, where HSBC analysts anticipate consumption will take center stage.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a 3-week high today as sentiment remained upbeat following signals from the White House indicating a willingness to ease trade tensions with China. Financial stocks led the gains on Thursday. Automobile stocks also advanced after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is contemplating reducing specific tariffs targeting the auto industry. Data released on Thursday showed that a key gauge of Japan's service-sector inflation remained elevated in March, signaling sustained inflationary pressures ahead of the anticipated impact from U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, investors continue to closely monitor developments related to U.S. tariffs following the 'big progress' in the Japan-U.S. trade talks last week. Japanese broadcaster NHK reported that the U.S. told Japan's trade delegation that Tokyo would not receive special treatment under Washington's current tariff regime. Also, Reuters reported that Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is finalizing plans to visit the U.S. from April 30th for a second round of trade talks. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is expected to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington later today on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings. Investors are also awaiting Tokyo's consumer price data, a bellwether for national inflation, scheduled for release on Friday, which is expected to show price increases by companies at the start of Japan's new fiscal year in April. In corporate news, Nintendo climbed over +5% as early demand for the upcoming Switch 2 exceeded the video game maker's supply capacity for the gaming console. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.60% to 30.06.
The Japanese March Corporate Services Price Index arrived at +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
International Business Machines (IBM) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 results that failed to meet high market expectations.
ServiceNow (NOW) climbed more than +9% in pre-market trading after the software company reported solid Q1 results and raised its full-year subscription revenue guidance.
Texas Instruments (TXN) gained over +7% in pre-market trading after the analog chipmaker posted upbeat Q1 results and issued above-consensus Q2 guidance.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - April 24th
Alphabet (GOOGL), Procter & Gamble (PG), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Merck&Co (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Gilead (GILD), Union Pacific (UNP), Comcast (CMCSA), Fiserv (FI), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Intel (INTC), Republic Services (RSG), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Digital (DLR), Freeport-McMoran (FCX), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Xcel Energy (XEL), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), PG E (PCG), Valero Energy (VLO), Hartford (HIG), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), Tractor Supply (TSCO), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), VeriSign (VRSN), Dover (DOV), CMS Energy (CMS), Erie Indemnity (ERIE), Dow (DOW), SS&Cs (SSNC), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Teck Resources (TECK), Principal Financial (PFG), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST), TransUnion (TRU), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), Comfort Systems (FIX), Textron (TXT), Pool (POOL), Kinsale Capital (KNSL), LKQ (LKQ), TechnipFMC (FTI), Encompass Health (EHC), Mobileye Global (MBLY), Celestica Inc. (CLS), Carpenter Technology (CRS), Old Republic (ORI), Eastman Chemical (EMN), South State (SSB), IPG (IPG), Appfolio (APPF), Webster Financial (WBS), FirstService (FSV), Hasbro (HAS), Skechers (SKX), VinFast (VFS), ADT (ADT), TAL Education (TAL), American Airlines (AAL), FTI Consulting (FCN), SLM (SLM), Merit (MMSI), Boyd Gaming (BYD), FirstCash (FCFS), Balchem (BCPC), Group 1 Automotive (GPI), Phillips Edison (PECO), Columbia Banking (COLB), SPS Commerce (SPSC), Valley National (VLY), Darling Ingredients (DAR), Glacier (GBCI), CNX Resources (CNX), Euronet (EEFT), Integer Hld (ITGR), AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB), CBIZ (CBZ), SkyWest (SKYW), Associated Banc-Corp (ASB), First Bancorp (FBP), Eastern Bankshares (EBC), Brunswick (BC), WSFS (WSFS), Federated Investors B (FHI), Procept Biorobotics (PRCT), TRI Pointe Homes (TPH), Boston Beer (SAM), McGrath (MGRC), Curbline Properties (CURB), WNS Holdings (WNS), Bread Financial Holdings (BFH), The Bancorp (TBBK), First Financial Bancorp (FFBC), Provident (PFS), First Merchants (FRME), Seacoast Banking Florida (SBCF), Sonic Automotive (SAH), Visteon (VC), NBT Bancorp (NBTB).
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