
Welfare U-turn will cost £2.5bn by 2030, Liz Kendall tells MPs
But her statement to MPs on Monday suggested the measures would save less than half the £4.8 billion the Government had expected from its initial proposals.
Ms Kendall's statement confirmed the concessions announced last week in an effort to head off a major rebellion by Labour backbenchers, including protecting people who claim personal independence payments from new eligibility criteria.
Responding to claims this would create a 'two-tier' benefits system, Ms Kendall said: 'I would say to the House, including members opposite, that our benefits system often protects existing claimants from new rates or new rules, because lives have been built around that support, and it's often very hard for people to adjust.'
Earlier, modelling from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) suggested the Government's proposals would push 150,000 more people into poverty by 2030.
The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been facing relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals.
Modelling published by the DWP said the estimate does not include any 'potential positive impact' from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
Speaking in the Commons on Monday afternoon, Ms Kendall insisted that changes to her proposals on Pip and universal credit would 'ensure no existing claimants are put into poverty'.
A Number 10 spokesman also said that the DWP's poverty modelling was 'subject to uncertainty' and did not 'reflect the full picture', including investment in the health service to help people get back to work.
Ministers hope the concessions will be enough to avert defeat when MPs vote on the reforms on Tuesday, although Downing Street remains braced for a substantial revolt.
A 'reasoned amendment' proposed by senior Labour backbencher Dame Meg Hillier had received support from 126 Labour MPs, enough to overturn Sir Keir Starmer's majority.
On Friday, Dame Meg had described the concessions as a 'workable compromise'.
But Labour MP Debbie Abrahams, who negotiated the concessions alongside Dame Meg, told ITV News on Monday that the Government had rowed back on what had been negotiated.
Although she described the concessions as 'good', Ms Abrahams said the rebels were 'not quite there yet' on a deal with the Government.
She added: 'The actual offer that was put to one of the negotiating team wasn't actually what we thought we had negotiated on Wednesday and Thursday. There are some issues around that.'
In the Commons, both Dame Meg and Ms Abrahams raised concerns that a review of Pip, to be conducted by disabilities minister Sir Stephen Timms, would report too late to have an effect on the changes scheduled for November 2026.
Meanwhile, Conservative shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately accused the Government of making 'unfunded U-turns costing billions and welfare plans that are not worth the paper that they are written on'.
She said: 'Their latest idea is a two-tier welfare system to trap people in a lifetime on benefits and deny them the dignity of work while leaving the taxpayer to pick up the ever-growing bill.'
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch confirmed on Monday evening that her party would vote against the Government's proposals, saying they were 'not serious welfare reform'.
Accusing Sir Keir of having 'watered down the small savings Labour were making', she added: 'We have a Government that is incapable of governing. For that reason, we will be voting against the welfare Bill tomorrow.'
The U-turn will also cause problems for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who will now have to find a way to cover the shortfall between the amount the Government had expected to save, and the new, lower figure.
And that figure could be even higher, with economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation suggesting last week the U-turn could cost in the region of £3 billion, raising the prospect of further tax rises.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

Rhyl Journal
22 minutes ago
- Rhyl Journal
Labour rebels offered 11th-hour concession over welfare reform
Changes to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip) could be delayed until after a review of the key disability benefit instead of coming into force in November 2026 as planned. The latest concession follows a partial U-turn last week in the face of a possible defeat over the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. The legislation faces its first Commons vote on Tuesday night and the 11th-hour concession on timing for the changes suggests the Labour hierarchy is still concerned about the scale of the revolt, which is set to be the largest of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership. Disability minister Sir Stephen Timms told MPs that the Government had listened to the concerns raised about the timing of the changes. The climbdown will cause a major headache for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as the welfare squeeze was originally meant to save £4.8 billion a year, which was subsequently reduced to £2.3 billion when the Bill was first watered down. Tuesday's changes leave any future savings uncertain as the scale of the squeeze on Pip is unclear. Sir Stephen's intervention, which came in the middle of debate on the legislation, followed frantic behind-the-scenes negotiations involving Cabinet ministers, Sir Keir himself and wavering Labour MPs. Some 39 Labour MPs have signed an amendment which would see the Bill fall at its first hurdle in the Commons. A previous effort to kill the Bill had attracted more than 120 Labour supporters, but was shelved after the first partial U-turn on the legislation last week, which restricted the Pip changes to new claimants from November 2026. That date has now been abandoned in the latest climbdown, with any changes now only coming after Sir Stephen's review of the Pip assessment process. Sir Stephen acknowledged 'concerns that the changes to Pip are coming ahead of the conclusions of the review of the assessment that I will be leading'. He said the Government would now 'only make changes to Pip eligibility activities and descriptors following that review', which is due to conclude in the autumn of 2026. The concession appeared to have won round some Labour doubters. Josh Fenton-Glynn, who was one of the 126 Labour MPs who signed the original rebel amendment to the welfare reform Bill last week, described the move as 'really good news'. He said he wanted to support the Government at 'every opportunity' and was glad changes to personal independence payment eligibility would be delayed until after the Timms review. But other Labour MPs appeared exasperated, with one telling the PA news agency that no-one 'knew what they were voting on anymore'. And rebel ringleader Rachael Maskell said she was determined to press for a vote on her 'reasoned amendment' which would halt the legislation in its tracks. 'The whole Bill is now unravelling and is a complete farce,' she said. This is an utter capitulation. Labour's welfare bill is now a TOTAL waste of time. It effectively saves £0, helps no one into work, and does NOT control spending. It's pointless. They should bin it, do their homework, and come back with something serious. Starmer cannot govern. — Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) July 1, 2025 'What it won't do is stop the suffering of disabled people which is why we are determined to go ahead with the reasoned amendment and attempt to vote down the Bill at second reading.' Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch accused ministers of 'utter capitulation' and said the legislation was now 'pointless'. She said: 'They should bin it, do their homework, and come back with something serious. Starmer cannot govern.'


North Wales Chronicle
22 minutes ago
- North Wales Chronicle
Labour rebels offered 11th-hour concession over welfare reform
Changes to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip) could be delayed until after a review of the key disability benefit instead of coming into force in November 2026 as planned. The latest concession follows a partial U-turn last week in the face of a possible defeat over the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. The legislation faces its first Commons vote on Tuesday night and the 11th-hour concession on timing for the changes suggests the Labour hierarchy is still concerned about the scale of the revolt, which is set to be the largest of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership. Disability minister Sir Stephen Timms told MPs that the Government had listened to the concerns raised about the timing of the changes. The climbdown will cause a major headache for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as the welfare squeeze was originally meant to save £4.8 billion a year, which was subsequently reduced to £2.3 billion when the Bill was first watered down. Tuesday's changes leave any future savings uncertain as the scale of the squeeze on Pip is unclear. Sir Stephen's intervention, which came in the middle of debate on the legislation, followed frantic behind-the-scenes negotiations involving Cabinet ministers, Sir Keir himself and wavering Labour MPs. Some 39 Labour MPs have signed an amendment which would see the Bill fall at its first hurdle in the Commons. A previous effort to kill the Bill had attracted more than 120 Labour supporters, but was shelved after the first partial U-turn on the legislation last week, which restricted the Pip changes to new claimants from November 2026. That date has now been abandoned in the latest climbdown, with any changes now only coming after Sir Stephen's review of the Pip assessment process. Sir Stephen acknowledged 'concerns that the changes to Pip are coming ahead of the conclusions of the review of the assessment that I will be leading'. He said the Government would now 'only make changes to Pip eligibility activities and descriptors following that review', which is due to conclude in the autumn of 2026. The concession appeared to have won round some Labour doubters. Josh Fenton-Glynn, who was one of the 126 Labour MPs who signed the original rebel amendment to the welfare reform Bill last week, described the move as 'really good news'. He said he wanted to support the Government at 'every opportunity' and was glad changes to personal independence payment eligibility would be delayed until after the Timms review. But other Labour MPs appeared exasperated, with one telling the PA news agency that no-one 'knew what they were voting on anymore'. And rebel ringleader Rachael Maskell said she was determined to press for a vote on her 'reasoned amendment' which would halt the legislation in its tracks. 'The whole Bill is now unravelling and is a complete farce,' she said. This is an utter capitulation. Labour's welfare bill is now a TOTAL waste of time. It effectively saves £0, helps no one into work, and does NOT control spending. It's pointless. They should bin it, do their homework, and come back with something serious. Starmer cannot govern. — Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) July 1, 2025 'What it won't do is stop the suffering of disabled people which is why we are determined to go ahead with the reasoned amendment and attempt to vote down the Bill at second reading.' Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch accused ministers of 'utter capitulation' and said the legislation was now 'pointless'. She said: 'They should bin it, do their homework, and come back with something serious. Starmer cannot govern.'


BBC News
31 minutes ago
- BBC News
No new policies in next year's budget, says Mark Drakeford
Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford will try to avoid political wrangling before next year's Senedd election by writing a "neutral" told Senedd members his final budget before the election will repeat this year's spending will not pay for new policies because that "will be for political parties to put before the Welsh electorate", Drakeford said it showed the "fragility" of Labour, which runs a minority government and has lost support in recent opinion polls. A draft budget for 2026/27 will be published in October, with MSs voting on a final budget in a statement, Drakeford said he did not want to tie the hands of the next parliament by publishing spending plans in the final weeks of a five-year Senedd the cabinet had agreed to plan "a business-as-usual budget", rising in line with he added he was "open to the possibility of working with other political parties who believe a more ambitious budget could be agreed".Taxpayer funding for public services falls if the Senedd cannot pass a budget - something that would have a "catastrophic impact", Drakeford cabinet's decision to restate this year's budget "is designed to maximise the chances that that risk can be avoided", he said."The politically neutral approach I have set out this afternoon is an attempt to secure stability and certainty for our public services and for our constituents," he said. 'Loss of authority' Drakeford said the next government will inherit a £400m fund to spend on what it wants after the Labour one seat short of a majority in the Senedd chamber, Drakeford needed the support of the Senedd's sole Liberal Democrat MP to pass a budget for this financial year. The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru voted against it in polls suggest a hung parliament is likely again after next May's election, with no party winning an outright MS Sam Rowlands said the "roll-over budget" was "an acknowledgement that there is a real risk of Labour not being in government after the next Senedd election"."I believe that's an admission of fragility and loss of authority by the Labour Party here in Wales," he Cymru MS Heledd Fychan said some voluntary groups and charities "are facing perhaps closure, so will be concerned and looking to next year's budget to see if they can survive or not".