Hedge funds pile into Ukraine on Trump peace hopes
Data from Morgan Stanley show that companies poised to benefit from Mr Trump's peace efforts were the most purchased by hedge funds last week. Elite finance is 'salivating' at the profits to be made from peace in Ukraine, fund managers said.
As part of the strategy, hedge funds can make a series of bets on a selection of stocks grouped together by Morgan Stanley into a basket called 'Rebuild Ukraine'.
These include cement, energy and security companies that would likely be boosted by Ukraine's efforts to rebuild the homes, transport networks and infrastructure assets destroyed during Vladimir Putin's invasion.
They include Vinci, the French construction giant; Heidelberg Materials, a German cement maker; and Assa Abloy, a Swedish lock manufacturer; as well as cement groups Holcim, CRH and Buzzi.
Last week the 'Rebuild Ukraine' strategy was the most popular bet among global hedge funds tracked by Morgan Stanley after Mr Trump met Putin in Alaska.
The data suggests investors now expect Mr Trump's negotiations with Putin will soon see the launch of major reconstruction efforts that could drive a surge in demand for building materials.
The World Bank has estimated it will cost $486bn (£360bn) to rebuild all of the buildings and infrastructure assets that have been destroyed in Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country three years ago.
Harald Berlinicke, a partner at Sarnia Asset Management, said: 'Where there is war, there is opportunity for investors. And the same is the case when a war ends. I know many investors who are salivating at the prospect of peace in Ukraine.'
Morgan Stanley predicts that Ukraine currently has capacity to supply the bulk of the materials it needs for its reconstruction efforts.
However, it expects Ukraine will be forced to import 14pc of the cement it needs and all of the sheet glass it needs to completely rebuild the homes and infrastructure that has been destroyed.
The reconstruction efforts could also be complicated by the fact that the worst destruction of the Ukraine war has all happened in the territories currently being occupied by Russia: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Bruno Schneller, a managing partner at Erlen Capital Management, said: 'The eventual reconstruction of Ukraine will involve huge sums flowing into infrastructure, materials and engineering that likely drive a stock market rally in the event of a ceasefire deal.'
Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
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