To fix the U.S. debt problem, Americans must retire later
The wise minds at Moody's Investors Service finally acknowledged last week what the other two main credit rating agencies did years ago: America has a debt problem.
Now it's time for America to recognize that solving its debt problem will require addressing another hard truth: Americans have a retirement problem — specifically, they retire too soon.
Despite reports that Moody's decision is related to the fiscal impact of the $3.7 trillion tax legislation the House is currently debating, that bill is just the proverbial rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic. The biggest source of America's long-term debt problem, which is not even included in the 10-year budget projections, is unfunded entitlements, largely Social Security and Medicare.
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Japan Times
6 hours ago
- Japan Times
A new generation of 'Japan hands' and a changing world
The recent passing of Joseph Nye and Richard Armitage marks the end of an era in U.S.-Japan relations. As individuals, they could not have been more different — Nye, the Harvard professor and Democratic architect of 'soft power,' and Armitage, the straight-talking U.S. Navy veteran and Republican strategist. And yet together, they represented the ideal bipartisan alignment that underpinned a golden age of American engagement with Japan. For decades, they helped shape a vision of U.S.-Japan ties grounded in shared values, strategic trust and mutual respect. They were not only scholars or statesmen — they were Japan hands in the truest sense: people who understood that the U.S.-Japan alliance is not just a bilateral relationship but a cornerstone of global order. The loss of these two great men — who quite literally built U.S.-Japan relations through their personal connections and the energy they brought to their roles — leaves a gap that no single person can fill, nor should anyone try. The debate that Ambassador Ryozo Kato began when Armitage retired from public service has only become more intense along with the numerous tributes that have flowed from Washington to Tokyo. The truth, however, is that the world they helped shape has changed dramatically. The next generation of 'Japan hands' must reflect a new landscape — one defined by shifting geopolitics, generational change and a broader, more diverse community of actors. A wider circle The term 'Japan hand' once evoked a small, elite circle of policymakers, scholars and diplomats. That world is evolving and ever expanding. Today, Japan-engagement spans across industries, disciplines and demographics, from tech entrepreneurs and climate scientists to artists, educators and defense strategists. The next generation of Japan hands will be more global, more inclusive and more interdisciplinary by necessity. Japan is no longer 'No. 1' or the main economic alternative to America like it was in the 1980s when Armitage and Nye established themselves, rather it is a bastion of soft power and a global force multiplier for a more reluctant America that is questioning its own role in the world. Richard Armitage, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, attends the first International Conference Of Council for Arab and International Relations in Kuwait City in February 2013. | REUTERS We now see rising voices who may not speak perfect Japanese or have not served in government, but who bring deep curiosity and commitment to the U.S.-Japan relationship. Many are women or people of color and come from backgrounds long excluded from the traditional foreign policy establishment. This is not a dilution of the term — it is this very evolution that should be celebrated even as we mourn the passing of these giants and their moment in time. A tougher strategic environment The strategic context is also far more complex than in Nye and Armitage's heyday. The U.S.-Japan alliance must now grapple with a rising China and authoritarianism in general, coupled with powerful nonstate actors and the reshaping of global supply chains after COVID-19 and a changing global trading order. Climate change, AI and demographic decline are no longer peripheral issues — they are central to national security and economic statecraft in more deeply divided American and Japanese polities where domestic politics trumps foreign policy consensus. This moment calls for more friends of Japan who can appreciate and navigate these challenges with agility, drawing from multiple domains while maintaining the clarity of purpose that Nye and Armitage modeled. It requires not just Japan experts, but bridge-builders who can interpret across cultures, disciplines and generations. Honoring a legacy To honor Nye and Armitage is not to look backward with nostalgia, but forward with ambition. They taught us that loyalty to allies should transcend political parties — a message that feels especially urgent amid rising polarization and populism across our democracies. They also showed that strategic clarity and human empathy can coexist — and that is a lesson for any generation. There will never be another Armitage or Nye — or an Armitage-Nye pairing. But that's not the goal. What we need now is a network of Japan hands — scholars, practitioners, students and citizens — who bring new energy to an old friendship. People who see Japan not only as a security partner, but as a cultural and technological force in its own right where its global role is additive and complementary to the new world order. People who understand that alliances are not inherited and taken for granted — they are earned, renewed and reimagined by each generation with appreciation and reverence for the giants on whose shoulders we all stand. The torch is being passed. The question is not only who will carry it, but whether they will carry it with the same conviction and the same courage to adapt. Joshua W. Walker, Ph.D., is president and CEO of Japan Society.
Japan Times
6 hours ago
- Japan Times
Mark Zuckerberg finally found a use for his Metaverse — war
I can't think of any other deal that more encapsulates how Silicon Valley has changed in the past couple of years than this one, announced last week in a press release: Anduril and Meta are partnering to design, build and field a range of integrated XR products that provide warfighters with enhanced perception and enable intuitive control of autonomous platforms on the battlefield. For starters, Anduril Industries is a defense tech company co-founded by Palmer Luckey, the man who created the Oculus VR headset that was acquired by Meta Platforms for $2 billion in 2014, only for Luckey to be pushed out when it emerged he had financially backed a pro-Donald Trump campaign group. That he would be welcomed back with open arms is yet another sign that such stances are no longer taboo in the halls of Silicon Valley companies. (It could be argued they never should have been.) Second, developing technology for war had been considered a hard red line for many of the engineers working within those leafy campuses, at least in the era after the dot-com boom. At Google, for instance, workers in 2018 held walkouts and forced executives to abandon projects related to military use. Today, defense applications of technology are something companies want to shout from their rooftops, not bury in the basement. (Again, it could be argued that should have always been the case. Who will create tech for the U.S. military if not U.S. tech companies?) In Meta's case, there's another factor at play. Mark Zuckerberg's deal with Anduril — which you assume is just the start of Meta's military hardware ambitions — offers a lifeline to its ailing Reality Labs business. The unit has lost more than $70 billion since the start of 2019. Advancements in quality haven't led to jumps in sales. I've written before that fitness applications are a great selling point, but apparently too few people agree with me. A newer form factor, sunglasses made in partnership with Ray-Ban, have shown potential but still represent a niche product. So instead, maybe the "killer app' for mixed reality is indeed a killer app. "My mission has long been to turn warfighters into technomancers,' Luckey is quoted as saying in a press release. "And the products we are building with Meta do just that.' A prototype of the "Eagle Eye' helmet being developed by the companies is due to be delivered to the Pentagon this year, Luckey told journalist Ashlee Vance in a podcast published alongside the official announcement. He compared its utility to what a player wears in the video game Halo — a heads-up display offering reams of intricate information on targets and locations, plus an AI assistant, Cortana, relaying critical and lifesaving directions. What's also striking about this shift is that it is a sign the historical flow of technological innovation is being turned around. Silicon Valley began as a region set up to develop chips for military tech before the assembled talent branched out into making products for businesses and consumers, such as the personal computer. Many breakthroughs have followed this direction of travel — the internet, the microwave, GPS, super glue, to name a few — but it is now increasingly the other way around. As Luckey put it during the podcast discussing the deal, it turns out that Meta's headsets are "just as useful on the battlefield as they are on the head of any consumer.' See also: artificial intelligence, developed first (and perhaps, at the cutting edge, always) by private sector tech companies. The opportunity is too big to pass up and too lucrative to hold grudges. Luckey says he was willing to work with Meta again because it had become a much different place from the one he was booted out of. Now friends again, he said he believed that Zuckerberg received bad advice when told to fire him and that his coming round to more Republican ways of thinking is genuine — as evidenced by his willingness to make Meta's AI available for government use, too. I've little reason to question Luckey's judgment here, though I wonder if it might be time for Meta to revise its mission statement. "Build the future of human connection,' it states today, not yet updated to reflect that it's now also working on the future of human conflict. Dave Lee is Bloomberg Opinion's U.S. technology columnist.
Japan Times
6 hours ago
- Japan Times
South Korean beauty brands bet boom in U.S. demand outlasts tariff pain
Emboldened by roaring online success in the U.S., South Korea's cosmetic startups are expanding their bricks-and-mortar presence in the world's biggest consumer market, confident their mass appeal will offset the hit from tariffs. Brands like Tirtir, d'Alba, Torriden and Beauty of Joseon are in talks with major retailers to stock their U.S. shelves, company executives have said. Korean beauty or "K-beauty" products are able to compete globally on quality, price and snappy marketing and have benefited greatly from the success of the Asian export giant's other consumer hits, namely its music, film and television. "K-culture — things like PSY in the past, BTS, and then Korean dramas and films like 'Parasite' — those really paved the way," Tirtir CEO An Byung-Jun said. "In the U.S. market, there was already growing interest in South Korea. Then Korean cosmetics entered the scene. The quality was good, but the prices were lower than the existing luxury brands like L'Oreal or Estee Lauder." Tirtir's profile shot up last year following the viral online success of its cushion foundation shades designed for dark skin. The product will be sold at some U.S. stores of Ulta Beauty this summer, An said, adding that the firm aims to double U.S. sales this year. Retailers in the U.S. from Sephora and Ulta Beauty to Costco and Target are in talks with Korean cosmetics brands to launch sales in their physical stores, according to interviews with a dozen people including cosmetics company CEOs, executives and industry experts. They also expect Korean brands to weather tariffs better than rivals thanks to higher-margin business models. Many of them outsource production to contract manufacturers like Cosmax and Kolmar, dubbed the Foxconns of fast beauty, to keep costs down. Products are displayed at a TIRTIR store in Seoul on May 23. | REUTERS South Korea overtook Germany to become the world's third-largest beauty product exporter after France and the U.S. in 2024. Four-fifths of its $13 billion cosmetics output are for exports, which have predominantly been driven by e-commerce sales. Yuliet Mendosa, a 25-year-old visiting Seoul from America, is a fan of K-pop boy band BTS, which led her to greater interest in K-beauty products. "They go straight to the point to fix what you need to fix and your skin," she said at an Olive Young store. Changing landscape The U.S. push comes at a tricky time for the world's big exporters with U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs unsettling global trade. But while the levies create uncertainty for Korea's beauty exporters, strong demand is expected to mitigate some of this, executives say. South Korea's dominant beauty retailer Olive Young plans to set up its first U.S. store in Los Angeles as early as this year, said Jin Se-hoon, executive vice president of the company's global platform business. "The U.S., especially California, has by far the most customers for our global online shopping platform," Jin said. He said Washington's tariffs were a burden but not enough to hurt K-beauty's popularity and value-for-money proposition. Their U.S. expansion, despite tariffs, also seeks to sustain momentum after exports to China, the biggest overseas market for K-beauty, fell due to geopolitical tensions and competition. Skincare brand d'Alba, owned by d'Alba Global and known for its vegan mist serum and sunscreens, is in talks with Costco, Ulta Beauty and Target for retail distribution, the company said. A woman takes a photograph of a cosmetic product made by TIRTIR at its store in Seoul on May 23. | REUTERS LVMH's cosmetics chain Sephora plans to launch two new Korean brands, Torriden and Beauty of Joseon, this summer, according to a Sephora spokesperson. Costco, Target and Ulta did not respond to requests for comments. Tirtir's An said the baseline 10% tariff that the U.S. has already imposed is "endurable," although the planned 25% tariff on South Korean products due in July may force the company to raise prices "a little bit." Seoul, a major U.S. ally, is seeking tariff exemptions in trade talks with Washington. The Founders — the maker of Anua skincare products, which hit Ulta Beauty shelves this year —also have more room to absorb higher tariffs than rivals, its strategy team leader Jung Jun-ho said. The company posted an operating profit margin of over 30% last year. Niche brands South Korea replaced France as the biggest cosmetics exporter to the U.S. in 2024, according to official data, driven by online sales through Amazon. The top five Korean cosmetics brands in U.S. e-commerce — which include Beauty of Joseon, Medicube and Biodance — saw online sales grow 71% on average over the past two years, outperforming the overall U.S. market's 21% growth, according to Euromonitor data. The top five French brands — which include L'Oreal Paris, Dior and Lancome — posted 15% growth over that period. Social media has played a big part in Korea's success. "Nowadays a single viral TikTok video or influencer endorsement can turn a product into a global bestseller before it even launches outside Korea," said South Korea-based beauty marketer Odile Monod. But longer-term success will require increased physical store sales, said Jason Kim, CEO of cosmetics distributor Silicon2. There are already signs of growth plateauing for some companies, such as startup COSRX, now part of Korean cosmetics giant AmorePacific, as competition heats up and cheaper alternatives emerge, analysts said. For now, investors remain upbeat about Korean potential, with shares of d'Alba Global more than doubling since their debut last month. "The K-beauty trend is strong," Silicon2's Kim said. "But indie brands will face challenges too."
